Posted by redcped on 6/13/2020 12:55:00 AM (view original):
Posted by rbow923 on 6/12/2020 11:35:00 PM (view original):
If you're throwing out 30% you're breaking even. Running game is doing as much harm as good. That figure is actually lower for higher scoring teams. Anybody who runs with less than 70% success is giving you a gift.
Bill James did the math in one of the 1980s Baseball Abstracts. If you are successful about 75% of the time, you actually add runs. But the CS cost you 3 times what the SB gains you. The total attempts don't matter. Hold them to 70% and they're losing runs, as rbow says.
Leaving aside for a moment the fact that the 75% break even in success rate is heavily dependent on the run scoring environment and even the particular run expectancies of the team in question. In ML history that I’m aware of we’ve seen teams with SB% break-evens ranging from around/below 60% up to around 90%.
None of that matters though in certain contexts, which we encounter frequently in the sim. We don’t always have to maximize stat efficiency to win. Sometimes other efficiencies weigh more. Perfect example being the teams that took Silver King in the variable cap. That’s a very inefficient use of King. It’s just not a relevant inefficiency in that context.
Similarly, a team in the sim focused on SB can afford to be inefficient in regards to run scoring if they have volume of opportunity in addition to the exact rate of inefficiency not being too low. For argument sake, maybe their break even point is 70% and your B+ arm is throwing out 31%. Yes, they’re missing out on scoring opportunities against you, but with sufficient volume, it doesn’t matter.
If they’re allowing 3 R/G and scoring 5/G, why would they care that they could be scoring 5.2? High SB teams in the sim typically make upwards of 700 attempts, an average team makes just below 200. So over 10 games against that B+ arm they make 43/12 attempts and get thrown out 13/4 times. Based on a general run expectancy (+0.193 runs for successful steal, -0.282 for a CS) they still gained 6/1.5 runs against you with their success. It could’ve been 8/2.5 if they were more efficient. Against a 60% RL CS%, their attempts are cut down to 80 (high SB) to 40 (average) instead, and typically still throw out upwards of 50%. With the higher rate of CS these SB teams gain only .5/0 runs of value and missed out on 3.5/1 runs by still making those few attempts instead of the normal attempts.
With a B+ arm, over a full season against SB teams that's 97 runs allowed on successful SBs by opponents . Against an average team that's 24 runs allowed on SB. with an A+ arm that's 8 runs and 4 runs, respectively. I’d rather not give up those 89/20 runs difference to begin with. Again, it's run context specific, but using the generic 10 runs/W, that's a difference of 9/2 wins per season.
That’s what I’m buying with the A++ arm. I’m saving those runs ON TOP of the wasted runs from the inefficient attempts they’re already wasting. I'd say paying for that 60% rate is definitely worth the 2+ wins I'm gaining over the course of a season with using them.
Chart form:
B+ Arm
Against High SB Teams
Attempts: 700
Success: 490
Runs Saved: 59
Runs Allowed: 94.5
Net: 35.5 runs (or 3.5 wins given up)
Against Average SB Teams
Attempts: 200
Success: 140
Runs Saved: 17
Runs Allowed: 27
Net: 10 runs (or 1 win given up)
A++ Arm
Against High SB Teams
Attempts: 80
Success: 40
Runs Saved: 12
Runs Allowed: 8
Net: 4 runs (or .5 wins gained)
Against Average SB Teams
Attempts: 40
Success: 20
Runs Saved: 6
Runs Allowed: 4
Net: 2 runs (or neutral)