I like the concept - my first time - and I haven’t done a good job...live and learn..

Posted by bds9992 on 7/3/2020 8:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pexetera on 7/3/2020 8:10:00 PM (view original):
I passed up on players I was sure were going to get picked and selected lesser players instead. The lesser players were picked so I didn't get them, and the better players are still available. Uggh. So, let me get this.... Steph Curry and Wilt Chamberlain only get picked once and now Kevin McHale gets picked 10 times. This is one weird league. What is it testing exactly? cause it ain't drafting skill.

Well, what is drafting skill? If you're talking about drafting one player at a time, then no. If you're talking about building a roster, then yes.

I have a database that gives me an average of how times a player would be picked in each round. The results aren't that surprising: people like defense, eFG%, usage, rebounding, and assists.

Obviously the trick is to find value outside of the usual suspects. To do that, you really have to know the SIM beyond draft league ADP. In a way, I think this tests drafting skill even more than a normal draft, because you don't have slotted picks to fall back on or the ability to trade down if you're in a pinch. This league is about value. I still see plenty of it.

(Amazingly, I just thought of a normal draft league guy who hasn't been taken yet)

Meh. Except for like 2 guys, in the ten I submitted were guys who are rarely drafted or are drafted in late rounds of a draft league. Meanwhile there are people who get picked higher than remain unselected. Meanwhile other teams get stacked with people who usually go high. So much of this league is just lucking into people everyone else thought would get picked or were saving for later. It is hard to have fun when the strategy depends on something that is mostly random.

Posted by robusk on 7/3/2020 8:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 7/3/2020 8:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pexetera on 7/3/2020 8:10:00 PM (view original):
I passed up on players I was sure were going to get picked and selected lesser players instead. The lesser players were picked so I didn't get them, and the better players are still available. Uggh. So, let me get this.... Steph Curry and Wilt Chamberlain only get picked once and now Kevin McHale gets picked 10 times. This is one weird league. What is it testing exactly? cause it ain't drafting skill.

Well, what is drafting skill? If you're talking about drafting one player at a time, then no. If you're talking about building a roster, then yes.

I have a database that gives me an average of how times a player would be picked in each round. The results aren't that surprising: people like defense, eFG%, usage, rebounding, and assists.

Obviously the trick is to find value outside of the usual suspects. To do that, you really have to know the SIM beyond draft league ADP. In a way, I think this tests drafting skill even more than a normal draft, because you don't have slotted picks to fall back on or the ability to trade down if you're in a pinch. This league is about value. I still see plenty of it.

(Amazingly, I just thought of a normal draft league guy who hasn't been taken yet)

Meh. Except for like 2 guys, in the ten I submitted were guys who are rarely drafted or are drafted in late rounds of a draft league. Meanwhile there are people who get picked higher than remain unselected. Meanwhile other teams get stacked with people who usually go high. So much of this league is just lucking into people everyone else thought would get picked or were saving for later. It is hard to have fun when the strategy depends on something that is mostly random.

Couple of things:
a) some of those guys are pretty popular in progressives for obvious reasons
b) some of them were more popular in draft leagues before you joined the ODL and certainly got picked in, say, the Savage tourney for obvious reasons
c) people need what they need, and you know why they need it. You have to get out ahead of those needs. The guys you submitted for Round 2 are really good, but a) you could have submitted them in Round 1 and been very happy and b) you went kind of low on minutes in Round 1, which put you in a tough spot for Round 2.

There's a balance of stealing and reaching that needs to happen, and I haven't quite figured it out yet. There are absolutely trends here. A smart owner like you should be able to figure out what is being valued more than in a draft league. It's a lot like predicting a draft based on ADP. If you know what you need, you can anticipate needing that thing and pick it up before anyone else does.

You can still make a great team out of scraps. Go back and look at the S7 thread and check my team out and check out some of the other teams. My team was a hodge podge of just okay guys and there were some teams with way better on-paper players, but I finished with the 2nd best record in the league due to making the chemistry work.

From my records, not one of the teams left in Round 2 of the S7 playoffs went better than 5/12 in Round 1.

One thing they all have in common is they either had a few draft league caliber role players, or one or two superstars by Round 1. It does pay to reach. How much is based on personal preference.

I mean, dh555 struck out on 23 of his first 24 picks and came within TWO GAMES of the playoffs. How crazy is that? If you're good, it doesn't really matter what anyone else is doing.

Posted by bds9992 on 7/3/2020 8:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 7/3/2020 8:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 7/3/2020 8:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pexetera on 7/3/2020 8:10:00 PM (view original):
I passed up on players I was sure were going to get picked and selected lesser players instead. The lesser players were picked so I didn't get them, and the better players are still available. Uggh. So, let me get this.... Steph Curry and Wilt Chamberlain only get picked once and now Kevin McHale gets picked 10 times. This is one weird league. What is it testing exactly? cause it ain't drafting skill.

Well, what is drafting skill? If you're talking about drafting one player at a time, then no. If you're talking about building a roster, then yes.

I have a database that gives me an average of how times a player would be picked in each round. The results aren't that surprising: people like defense, eFG%, usage, rebounding, and assists.

Obviously the trick is to find value outside of the usual suspects. To do that, you really have to know the SIM beyond draft league ADP. In a way, I think this tests drafting skill even more than a normal draft, because you don't have slotted picks to fall back on or the ability to trade down if you're in a pinch. This league is about value. I still see plenty of it.

(Amazingly, I just thought of a normal draft league guy who hasn't been taken yet)

Meh. Except for like 2 guys, in the ten I submitted were guys who are rarely drafted or are drafted in late rounds of a draft league. Meanwhile there are people who get picked higher than remain unselected. Meanwhile other teams get stacked with people who usually go high. So much of this league is just lucking into people everyone else thought would get picked or were saving for later. It is hard to have fun when the strategy depends on something that is mostly random.

Couple of things:
a) some of those guys are pretty popular in progressives for obvious reasons
b) some of them were more popular in draft leagues before you joined the ODL and certainly got picked in, say, the Savage tourney for obvious reasons
c) people need what they need, and you know why they need it. You have to get out ahead of those needs. The guys you submitted for Round 2 are really good, but a) you could have submitted them in Round 1 and been very happy and b) you went kind of low on minutes in Round 1, which put you in a tough spot for Round 2.

There's a balance of stealing and reaching that needs to happen, and I haven't quite figured it out yet. There are absolutely trends here. A smart owner like you should be able to figure out what is being valued more than in a draft league. It's a lot like predicting a draft based on ADP. If you know what you need, you can anticipate needing that thing and pick it up before anyone else does.

This really doesn’t hold any water when other teams are getting three or more first rounders man.

I’m obviously going to try and make it work. But the point stands.

Lot of factors involved and luck is certainly one of them. I mean "Should I draft Wilt/ Lebron/ Steph?" is not really a question is any other league.

So I guess risk vs reward is pretty big too. Is the reward of getting 1 top 30 player high enough to use all of your first round picks trying? Or is there more risk trying to draft lower players that everyone assumes are going to be there?

After this draft, I think you have to go all in on first round studs and hope to get something.

Posted by robusk on 7/3/2020 9:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 7/3/2020 8:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 7/3/2020 8:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 7/3/2020 8:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pexetera on 7/3/2020 8:10:00 PM (view original):
I passed up on players I was sure were going to get picked and selected lesser players instead. The lesser players were picked so I didn't get them, and the better players are still available. Uggh. So, let me get this.... Steph Curry and Wilt Chamberlain only get picked once and now Kevin McHale gets picked 10 times. This is one weird league. What is it testing exactly? cause it ain't drafting skill.

Well, what is drafting skill? If you're talking about drafting one player at a time, then no. If you're talking about building a roster, then yes.

I have a database that gives me an average of how times a player would be picked in each round. The results aren't that surprising: people like defense, eFG%, usage, rebounding, and assists.

Obviously the trick is to find value outside of the usual suspects. To do that, you really have to know the SIM beyond draft league ADP. In a way, I think this tests drafting skill even more than a normal draft, because you don't have slotted picks to fall back on or the ability to trade down if you're in a pinch. This league is about value. I still see plenty of it.

(Amazingly, I just thought of a normal draft league guy who hasn't been taken yet)

Meh. Except for like 2 guys, in the ten I submitted were guys who are rarely drafted or are drafted in late rounds of a draft league. Meanwhile there are people who get picked higher than remain unselected. Meanwhile other teams get stacked with people who usually go high. So much of this league is just lucking into people everyone else thought would get picked or were saving for later. It is hard to have fun when the strategy depends on something that is mostly random.

Couple of things:
a) some of those guys are pretty popular in progressives for obvious reasons
b) some of them were more popular in draft leagues before you joined the ODL and certainly got picked in, say, the Savage tourney for obvious reasons
c) people need what they need, and you know why they need it. You have to get out ahead of those needs. The guys you submitted for Round 2 are really good, but a) you could have submitted them in Round 1 and been very happy and b) you went kind of low on minutes in Round 1, which put you in a tough spot for Round 2.

There's a balance of stealing and reaching that needs to happen, and I haven't quite figured it out yet. There are absolutely trends here. A smart owner like you should be able to figure out what is being valued more than in a draft league. It's a lot like predicting a draft based on ADP. If you know what you need, you can anticipate needing that thing and pick it up before anyone else does.

This really doesn’t hold any water when other teams are getting three or more first rounders man.

I’m obviously going to try and make it work. But the point stands.

What point? I only see one team with two first rounders. Most of us don't even have one.

Dragic is showing up on mptrey's team but not in the taken list.

Posted by robusk on 7/3/2020 11:54:00 PM (view original):
Dragic is showing up on mptrey's team but not in the taken list.

Fixed

Round 3 was not kind. I was shocked someone else wanted Elgin Baylor

Lotta good teams here. Mine is not one of them.

When is the deadline for round 4 submissions?

Posted by longtallbrad on 7/7/2020 11:06:00 AM (view original):
When is the deadline for round 4 submissions?

Wednesday at 6:30.

It's in everyone's SMs as always

Posted by bds9992 on 7/7/2020 11:08:00 AM (view original):

Posted by longtallbrad on 7/7/2020 11:06:00 AM (view original):
When is the deadline for round 4 submissions?

Wednesday at 6:30.

It's in everyone's SMs as always

Huh. Not sure I received it this time.