I enjoyed your analysis of the two lists pex. Thanks for sharing.

Posted by robusk on 10/1/2020 1:15:00 AM (view original):
Adjusted for the above:

Row Labels	Sum of AdjDivWins
albiband0	855
ashamael	847
benhoidal	845
jpevans31	842
robusk	836
ysw128	836
24kpyrite	833
amerk1180	831
jhsukow	828
goetz93	819
dskantor	819
bds9992	816
mikee1	815
jcred5	809
dBKC	808
longtallbrad	802
gerryred	802
cmcafeeky	799
mptrey	795
20ks	789
dh555	789
tarheel1991	774
pexetera	768
pharrop	743

what does this one tell us?

Here's the aforementioned spreadsheet I was talking about

Note that this is not current; it was made with 10/1 pm cycle as the most recent data.

Here is my thought process followed by detail of each column of spreadsheet.

Thought Process:
Step one: determine division difficulty (D) within each world. To do that:

A = Sum of wins within the division
B = Average wins of each division (should be same within each world; it was. 204.)

D = A/B . This is the difficulty of the division relative to the mean.

Step two: determine each owner's success given their division difficulty. Multiply each owner's wins by D for their adjusted win totals. Thus, an owner in a harder division (as determined in step 1) will earn more points per win than an owner in a weaker division.

Step three: Repeat for all five worlds to determine each owner's cumulative adjusted win rate.

Step four: Analyze.

Step five: Argue.

Step six: Accept the reality that none of this matters, as the scoring system takes none of this into account, and if you got a tough draw, you got a tough draw.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Spreadsheet breakdown/analysis:

The spreadsheet is two pages: Results & worksheet. I feel it's fairly obvious what each is.

On results, by default, it is sorted by rankings current to the pm cycle of 10/1 (columns I & J). It's color coordinated from hot (red - ouch!) teams to cold (purple - brrrr) teams, going left to right in the color spectrum on google sheets.

Columns B through F are the weighted wins score from each individual world (can check work on worksheet).

Column G is the combined score, and H is the ranking of such. Note that this won't make bad teams not be bad, but with the increased weight given to wins in harder divisions (and penalty to those in easier divisions), it does have an effect in how things would be ranked.

This is reflected in columns K & L. Column K is the % increase of your win score factoring in strength of schedule. Column L is how far you would move up (or down) in the rankings if strength of schedule were factored in.

Both columns have condition triggers: green means strength of schedule helps your cause, red means it hurts.

Finally is column M, affectionately called, "I got screwed." This is essentially ranking how much of an impact factoring in strength of schedule had on your win total. Sort it A-Z and look at it. The top six seems pretty conclusive of many things.

(columns O & P were just copy/pasta from Rob's spreadsheet to make the comparisons I made)

I feel it necessary to repeat the following: Accept the reality that none of this matters, as the scoring system takes none of this into account, and if you got a tough draw, you got a tough draw.

It is, after all, Savage.

Nice job ash. And good to know that the difficulty of divisional draw wouldn't change the podium results, at least through this point in the season.

After last OOD games:

Row Labels	Sum of DivWins	Sum of AdjDivWins
20ks	1047	873
24kpyrite	1130	926
albiband0	1033	926
amerk1180	1077	909
ashamael	1137	939
bds9992	1117	907
benhoidal	1120	930
cmcafeeky	1072	894
dBKC	1112	886
dh555	1098	886
dskantor	1067	900
gerryred	1088	893
goetz93	1073	915
jcred5	1060	896
jhsukow	1069	918
jpevans31	1067	944
longtallbrad	1092	894
mikee1	1078	906
mptrey	1075	875
pexetera	1085	855
pharrop	1023	829
robusk	1100	923
tarheel1991	1040	852
ysw128	1060	924

I am going to write something to get some more comprehensive data, but not sure if I will get to it before Monday.

Posted by robusk on 10/4/2020 12:22:00 AM (view original):
I am going to write something to get some more comprehensive data, but not sure if I will get to it before Monday.

Nevermind, I sucked it up and got to it tonight.

I took every team multiplied the winning percentage of the opposing team by the amount of times they had to play that team and then divided by 72 (the amount of games played when I ran this). I will give you two outputs:

1. an average winning percentage of opponents across worlds
2. a ranked list of highest opponent winning percentage down to lowest by team

Row Labels	Weighted Opp Win Pct
jpevans31	51.4%
albiband0	51.1%
ysw128	50.9%
jhsukow	50.7%
benhoidal	50.5%
goetz93	50.5%
ashamael	50.4%
robusk	50.4%
24kpyrite	50.3%
amerk1180	50.2%
jcred5	50.1%
mikee1	50.1%
dskantor	50.0%
bds9992	49.9%
gerryred	49.9%
dh555	49.9%
cmcafeeky	49.8%
longtallbrad	49.8%
20ks	49.6%
mptrey	49.3%
dBKC	49.3%
tarheel1991	49.0%
pexetera	48.8%
pharrop	48.6%

Team	Record	Coach	Opp Win Pct	Rank
BASEketball	25-49	dskantor	53.2%	1
Atlantis	30-44	amerk1180	53.2%	2
Brighten the Corners (W4)	28-46	robusk	53.0%	3
Sir Boban the Giant Slayer	34-40	benhoidal	52.7%	4
With Teeth	19-55	jpevans31	52.5%	5
Freyr	31-43	bds9992	52.5%	6
Ashland Great Wyrms	36-38	ashamael	52.4%	7
once upon a time in America	21-53	albiband0	52.2%	8
Too Physical	17-57	jpevans31	52.2%	9
Survivalism	27-47	jpevans31	52.0%	10
Drawing Flies	37-37	dh555	51.8%	11
curly	29-45	ysw128	51.7%	12
Challenger	29-45	amerk1180	51.7%	12
larry	15-59	ysw128	51.5%	14
Big Dipper	38-36	gerryred	51.5%	15
Five Feet Apart	43-31	jhsukow	51.5%	16
the good, the bad, the ugly	21-53	albiband0	51.5%	17
BLUE DOG	31-43	cmcafeeky	51.4%	18
The UC	40-34	24kpyrite	51.4%	19
Y'all Need Jesus I	39-35	mikee1	51.4%	20
ATLiens	39-35	mptrey	51.4%	20
Barracuda	39-35	20ks	51.4%	22
moe	28-46	ysw128	51.3%	23
99 Luftballons	41-33	longtallbrad	51.3%	24
I'll Melt With You	29-45	longtallbrad	51.3%	25
a fistful of dollars	11-63	albiband0	51.2%	26
Ruiner	31-43	jpevans31	51.2%	27
Safety Not Guaranteed	31-43	jhsukow	51.2%	27
RED'S BASTARDS	31-43	goetz93	51.2%	27
Aliens	29-45	jcred5	51.2%	30
The House That Jordan Built	41-33	24kpyrite	51.1%	31
Y'all Need Jesus V	30-44	mikee1	51.0%	32
For a few dollars more	22-52	albiband0	51.0%	33
Sir Anthony of Brow	42-32	benhoidal	51.0%	34
The Stilt	44-30	gerryred	50.9%	35
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind	23-51	jhsukow	50.9%	36
Wowee Zowee (W3)	44-30	robusk	50.7%	37
Incredibles 2	28-46	jcred5	50.7%	38
Ashland Titans	37-37	ashamael	50.7%	39
Thor	35-39	bds9992	50.7%	40
Ashland Mustangs	45-29	ashamael	50.6%	41
RED'S HOPHEADS	29-45	goetz93	50.6%	42
Airplane!	29-45	dskantor	50.6%	43
Y'all Need Jesus IV	33-41	mikee1	50.5%	44
THE FIGHTING RED FORMANS	38-36	goetz93	50.5%	45
Mean Girls	30-44	jhsukow	50.5%	46
shemp	34-40	ysw128	50.4%	47
Aardvark	36-38	20ks	50.3%	48
BLUE FOX	36-38	cmcafeeky	50.3%	48
Hawaii 4-0	35-39	dBKC	50.3%	50
The Highlight Factory	52-22	24kpyrite	50.3%	51
Black Mamba	50-24	pexetera	50.2%	52
Hawaii 2-0	53-21	dBKC	50.2%	53
Hawaii 1-0	41-33	dBKC	50.1%	54
The Empire Strikes Back	50-24	jcred5	50.1%	55
BLUE PIG	37-37	cmcafeeky	50.0%	56
Fletch	32-42	dskantor	50.0%	57
RED'S SMARTMOUTHS	32-42	goetz93	50.0%	57
Sir Artis the Rigorous	39-35	benhoidal	49.9%	59
RED'S DUMBA$$ES	34-40	goetz93	49.9%	60
Crooked Rain, Crooked Rain (W2)	34-40	robusk	49.9%	60
Ashland Eternals	40-34	ashamael	49.8%	62
Once upon a time in the west	35-39	albiband0	49.8%	63
Stankonia	44-30	mptrey	49.7%	64
Heimdallr	52-22	bds9992	49.7%	65
Hold Me Now	45-29	longtallbrad	49.6%	66
Superunknown	41-33	dh555	49.6%	67
Terror Twilight (W5)	41-33	robusk	49.6%	67
Be Like Mike	37-37	tarheel1991	49.6%	69
Madhouse on Madison	37-37	24kpyrite	49.6%	69
The Two Towers	28-46	jcred5	49.5%	71
Stranger Than Fiction	28-46	jhsukow	49.5%	71
The Boogie Knight	41-33	benhoidal	49.5%	73
Ty Cobb	46-28	dh555	49.5%	74
Banksville	46-28	pharrop	49.5%	75
Caterpillar	31-43	20ks	49.5%	76
Discovery	42-32	amerk1180	49.5%	77
BLUE CAT	38-36	cmcafeeky	49.4%	78
The Garden	37-37	24kpyrite	49.3%	79
curly joe	32-42	ysw128	49.3%	80
Michael and the Jordanaires	32-42	tarheel1991	49.3%	80
Goliath	43-31	gerryred	49.3%	82
Black Hole Sun	48-26	dh555	49.2%	83
Pretty Noose	43-31	dh555	49.2%	84
Dragonfly	33-41	20ks	49.2%	84
Sir Bobby	36-38	benhoidal	49.2%	86
The Game of Death	45-29	dskantor	49.2%	87
Sidewinder	47-27	pexetera	49.1%	88
The Godfather Part II	34-40	jcred5	49.1%	89
The Love Below	41-33	mptrey	49.0%	90
We're In This Together	32-42	jpevans31	49.0%	91
Aquemini	41-33	mptrey	49.0%	92
Y'all Need Jesus II	35-39	mikee1	48.9%	93
Air Jordan	46-28	tarheel1991	48.8%	94
KING DONG	36-38	gerryred	48.8%	95
House of NO EVIL	39-35	gerryred	48.8%	96
Regent Square	43-31	pharrop	48.8%	97
The Last Dance	43-31	tarheel1991	48.7%	98
Ashland Archangels	48-26	ashamael	48.7%	99
Loki	48-26	bds9992	48.7%	100
The Jordan Rules	35-39	tarheel1991	48.6%	101
California Mountain Snake	44-30	pexetera	48.6%	102
Slanted and Enchanted (W1)	38-36	robusk	48.5%	103
The Walls Came Down	45-29	longtallbrad	48.5%	104
Polish Hill	32-42	pharrop	48.5%	105
Y'all Need Jesus III	44-30	mikee1	48.4%	106
Cottonmouth	48-26	pexetera	48.4%	107
The Unguarded Moment	42-32	longtallbrad	48.4%	108
Columbia	33-41	amerk1180	48.3%	109
Endeavor	40-34	amerk1180	48.3%	110
Lawrenceville	38-36	pharrop	48.2%	111
Odin	48-26	bds9992	48.1%	112
Fineview	42-32	pharrop	48.0%	113
Hawaii 3-0	48-26	dBKC	47.9%	114
Hawaii 5-0	54-20	dBKC	47.9%	115
BLUE RAT	41-33	cmcafeeky	47.8%	116
Copperhead	47-27	pexetera	47.7%	117
Speakerboxxx	40-34	mptrey	47.4%	118
Elephant	40-34	20ks	47.4%	118
Be Water	43-31	dskantor	47.0%	120

Very interesting!

All I know is I was on a tear until division play resumed 2 cycles ago

There was a bug affecting teams in the central that has been corrected.

My teams are not good enough if I had the most favorable matchups, but it is nice to see that Five Feet Apart could contend in the playoffs and that my second and 3rd teams are also in the top 40.