I believe this is based largely on Run Differential but I have found it to be VERY accurate season after season to be a predictor. I have a few examples from a current league I am in:

• One owner has an expected Win % of .518 but in reality is at .565. When you look further he is 22-10 in 1-run games which in my mind means he probably has a good BP or has gotten a disproportionate level of "breaks" from Sparky
• Another owner has a .482 expected but is at .516. When you look further every other team in his division is sub .500 so that explains that...he is just better than the teams he plays most often.
• Another owner is .543 but in reality is just over .500. Looking further he is 16-23 in 1 run games. So he has a decent team but hasnt gotten any breaks.

I use this during the season to see if my team is actually as good/as bad as record shows. WIS is certainly streaky but this seems to normalize throughout the year. Anyone else have thoughts?

I'm not a huge believer in this stat on WIS. There are far more blowouts here than in RL that skew stats. There are $200K type pitchers used as SP to rest a pitching staff, plus used if losing by several runs. Badly built teams also skew stats.

I do believe it serves as a measure for team ability up to a point...just not something I put full stock in. Just my opinion.

Blowout wins, strength of schedule cause wild numbers to appear. It can be deceiving. Always good to play north of the number...

If there aren't any purposely thrown games involved, then run differential will normalize sooner that win/loss record. That holds true at any point in the season. Like performance history, it can be distorted from "abuse", but otherwise is very helpful.

It's calculated by the pythagorean theorum but with a modified exponent (^1.82).

Some owners throw 0% mopups for unlimited pitches and some don't. I don't use expected win% and that's a big part of the reason.

Good Feedback. Any thoughts on poor 1 run game records? I have usually felt you are just not getting any breaks as in close games you should be close to .500 over time as law of averages takes over. Conversely, most teams I have had that had great extra inning records usually have great bullpens...that do not give up runs then usually you score in extras and you Win.