Effects of Pitching Fatigued: In-Game & PC-Based fatigue.

The following info was taken from one $80m theme league where everyone had to use '74 Mike Marshall. I have 2,310 games worth of data for Marshall from this league. Marshall makes for an excellent example to use because of how in-game fatigue effects him, as well. However, it should be noted that this league was in no way, shape, or form a fatigue test league. The data from this league is significantly oriented towards the non-fatigued data set, but still provided some excellent data.

HIs overall line in the league was:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
2309	30.3	96	4448.04	20571	69959	246	307	190	2943	2655	5538	285	2846	1785	63	5.37	0.293	1.65

His overall pitch-based fatigue numbers by fatigue level were (groupings are <60%, 60-70%, 70-75%, 75-80%, 80-85%, 85-90%, 90-95%, 95-99%, 99-100%):

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
15	43.3	56	35.33	192	650	0	7	0	57	56	64	11	10	25	2	14.26	0.376	2.52
23	30.3	65	38.34	202	697	3	5	1	37	36	60	5	23	27	0	8.45	0.343	2.27
47	27.5	72	81.31	391	1292	6	4	5	62	54	119	11	29	37	1	5.98	0.328	1.92
54	26.8	78	91.69	436	1447	7	5	3	63	50	109	4	44	40	1	4.91	0.284	1.63
72	27.7	82	119.29	583	1991	2	12	8	93	83	184	10	78	46	0	6.26	0.340	1.93
141	26.7	87	243.33	1127	3764	17	17	22	141	123	300	17	142	95	2	4.55	0.291	1.62
213	34.1	92	445.63	2130	7260	20	40	15	352	321	594	46	267	206	7	6.48	0.308	1.80
232	29.6	96	444.27	2043	6872	29	26	19	257	238	541	20	283	168	6	4.82	0.289	1.60
1512	30.4	100	2948.85	13467	45986	162	191	117	1881	1694	3567	161	1970	1141	44	5.17	0.287	1.60

Now, from an in-game fatigue perspective, Marshall has a RL 1.97 IP/G, which, with his sim-assigned PC, would give him a max PC per game of 32.78 to stay at 100% during a game* (See this conversation for more details on in-game fatigue and definitions). Everything I've found suggests that in-game fatigue is then a linear drop based on % above this assigned number, much like how pitch-based is a linear drop based on % projected/actual above the sim-assigned pitch allocation. As such, I colored the pitch counts accordingly to align with the color coding of the displayed pitch-based fatigue. A couple of these Marshalls may have also faced appearance fatigue, but I did not account for that separately as it would be reflected in their beginning pitch-based fatigue number as we now know it is also based on projected % over sim-allocated pitches.

*(Given the conversation linked above, it's better to think of the % above the sim-assigned number as the in-game % of allocated pitches used, and not as the actual "in-game fatigue %." The effect described hereafter, is consistent with this definition in mind and in the effects of using a pitcher beyond their IP/G based on pitches).

Separating Marshall into similar buckers based on in-game fatigue we get the following groupings:

In-Game Fatigue %	PC	Displayed PC
<60%	45.89	46+
60-65%	44.25	45
65-70%	42.61	43-44
70-75%	40.98	41-42
75-80%	39.34	40
80-85%	37.70	38-39
85-90%	36.06	36-37
90-95%	34.42	34-35
95-99%	33.11	33
99-100%	32.78	<33

These groupings presented the following totals:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
259	64.7	96	908.75	4819	16767	13	114	3	1110	1037	1532	122	506	617	12	10.27	0.360	2.36
42	45.0	93	118.31	550	1890	2	10	1	67	59	147	5	72	59	1	4.49	0.293	1.74
61	43.4	94	162.32	768	2650	10	9	4	105	90	214	10	124	63	5	4.99	0.305	1.71
207	40.8	96	530.39	2463	8447	21	32	6	313	275	655	22	343	214	11	4.67	0.292	1.64
35	39.0	97	87.33	391	1365	3	3	2	45	35	95	2	63	33	2	3.61	0.266	1.47
56	37.3	94	128.66	602	2091	10	5	4	69	61	159	5	100	53	4	4.27	0.292	1.65
60	36.0	96	142.68	640	2160	7	4	6	71	59	165	7	97	47	1	3.72	0.278	1.49
101	34.7	96	231.67	1021	3507	7	7	10	101	86	252	11	158	72	2	3.34	0.266	1.40
42	33.0	96	87.31	399	1386	7	5	5	42	36	92	7	55	39	0	3.71	0.260	1.50
1447	20.5	96	2050.63	8918	29696	166	118	149	1020	917	2227	94	1328	588	25	4.02	0.266	1.37

We can already see the effect in-game fatigue had on the overall numbers. There isn't a single bucket here that saw Marshall's overall fatigue average below 93%, and despite that, outside of his 99-100% in-game fatigue bucket, Marshall's stats are exactly what you would expect from a pitcher experiencing fatigue at the levels indicating by the color of the PC.

We start to get into some rather small sample sizes, but when we combine the two groups into buckets around in-game fatigue within pitch-based fatigue, the trends are even clearer. Breaking the pitch-based buckets from the first chart into individual buckets of in-game fatigue within each of them we get the following (each bucket will be it's own followup post):

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was in the red (less than 60%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, there was only data from three sub-buckets, and one of them only had 2.67 IP worth of data, so not much to go off of):

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
15	43.3	56	35.33	192	650	0	7	0	57	56	64	11	10	25	2	14.26	0.376	2.52
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
8	52.9	55	21.67	124	423	0	3	0	39	38	42	7	8	18	1	15.78	0.393	2.77
4	45.0	56	11.00	53	180	0	2	0	12	12	15	2	2	6	1	9.82	0.313	1.91
3	15.7	57	2.67	15	47	0	2	0	6	6	7	2	0	1	0	20.25	0.467	3.00

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was in the blue (60-69%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, there was only data from two sub-buckets:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
24	29.0	65	38.34	202	697	3	5	1	37	36	60	5	23	27	0	8.45	0.343	2.27
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
4	68.8	65	12.67	79	275	0	1	0	23	23	30	3	3	12	0	16.34	0.441	3.32
20	21.1	66	25.67	123	422	3	4	1	14	13	30	2	20	15	0	4.56	0.280	1.75

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was in the blue (70-74%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, there was no data from the two sub-buckets covering 90-98%, and five of the other buckets have just 1 or 2 games that met their criteria, giving us a bunch of very small samples:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
40	28.8	72	72.31	345	1151	4	4	5	54	46	102	9	26	33	1	5.73	0.320	1.87
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
1	47.0	71	2.67	14	47	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	1	0	0.00	0.333	1.87
1	45.0	70	3.33	14	45	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	0.00	0.167	1.50
7	43.6	71	19.33	95	305	3	0	0	18	14	30	5	5	9	0	6.52	0.341	2.02
7	41.1	71	15.33	80	288	0	0	0	17	17	26	2	9	9	0	9.98	0.361	2.28
2	40.0	70	5.00	24	80	0	0	0	2	1	6	0	2	3	1	1.80	0.286	1.80
1	38.0	70	2.00	12	38	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	1	2	0	0.00	0.250	2.00
2	36.5	73	6.67	22	73	0	0	0	3	3	6	0	1	1	0	4.05	0.231	1.05
19	14.5	72	17.98	84	275	1	3	5	12	11	26	2	6	5	0	5.51	0.325	1.72

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was in the blue (75-79%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, there was data from seven of the ten sub-buckets, but we didn't have any from three blue groups, and a couple groups we did have had just 1-2 uses and 3 or fewer IP:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
61	26.0	77	100.69	482	1588	9	5	3	71	58	126	6	47	44	1	5.18	0.294	1.69
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
3	56.3	77	8.67	48	169	1	2	0	9	9	14	1	7	7	0	9.34	0.350	2.42
2	41.0	78	3.00	23	82	0	1	0	6	0	8	0	2	4	0	0.00	0.471	4.00
1	38.0	78	1.67	10	38	0	0	0	4	4	3	0	0	2	0	21.56	0.375	2.99
4	36.5	77	8.00	41	146	1	0	0	6	5	14	0	5	3	0	5.63	0.368	2.13
6	34.8	78	14.67	64	209	0	0	1	8	8	16	1	6	4	1	4.91	0.267	1.36
4	33.0	78	8.00	37	132	2	0	0	4	4	6	1	3	7	0	4.50	0.200	1.63
41	19.8	77	56.68	259	812	5	2	2	34	28	65	3	24	17	0	4.45	0.277	1.45

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was in the blue (80-84%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, there was data from eight of the buckets, with no data from one green and one blue bucket:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
72	27.7	82	119.29	583	1991	2	12	8	93	83	184	10	78	46	0	6.26	0.340	1.93
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
6	58.8	83	20.67	109	353	0	2	0	27	27	45	2	8	5	0	11.76	0.421	2.42
3	45.0	83	6.33	39	135	0	3	0	11	5	15	0	2	5	0	7.11	0.441	3.16
3	43.3	83	7.67	35	130	0	1	0	7	7	10	2	8	3	0	8.21	0.303	1.69
2	40.0	82	6.33	25	80	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	3	1	0	0.00	0.208	0.95
3	39.0	84	5.00	31	117	1	0	0	8	7	8	0	3	7	0	12.60	0.348	3.00
5	36.2	81	8.67	47	181	0	0	0	7	7	12	2	9	8	0	7.27	0.316	2.31
6	35.0	82	13.67	60	210	0	0	0	4	4	17	0	10	3	0	2.63	0.293	1.46
44	17.8	82	50.95	237	785	1	6	8	29	26	72	4	35	14	0	4.59	0.320	1.69

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was in the blue (85-89%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, there was data from all but one sub-bucket, and even though a few were of the smaller sample size, there was at least 6 IP from each sub-bucket group in this set:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
141	26.7	87	243.33	1127	3764	17	17	22	141	123	300	17	142	95	2	4.55	0.291	1.62
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
11	62.7	86	37.01	203	690	1	5	0	44	42	69	6	22	22	0	10.21	0.383	2.46
3	43.7	86	7.34	40	131	0	1	1	6	6	14	0	2	5	0	7.36	0.389	2.59
4	41.3	87	9.67	46	165	0	1	0	6	6	11	1	5	6	0	5.58	0.275	1.76
5	40.0	87	12.33	61	200	1	2	0	10	8	20	1	7	3	1	5.84	0.351	1.87
5	38.2	88	12.00	55	191	0	0	2	2	1	12	0	12	6	0	0.75	0.250	1.50
6	36.7	87	13.67	62	220	1	1	1	6	6	16	0	12	5	0	3.95	0.281	1.54
4	34.8	86	10.00	41	139	1	0	1	1	1	8	1	3	4	0	0.90	0.211	1.20
3	33.0	86	6.00	28	99	0	1	0	4	4	9	1	4	2	0	6.00	0.333	1.83
100	19.3	87	135.31	591	1929	13	6	17	62	49	141	7	75	42	1	3.26	0.258	1.35

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was in the green (90-94%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, there was data from every bucket, but a few of them had less than 6 IP worth of data to go off of:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
213	34.1	92	445.63	2130	7260	20	40	15	352	321	594	46	267	206	7	6.48	0.308	1.80
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
26	83.0	92	107.66	622	2159	1	20	0	180	169	224	28	44	85	0	14.13	0.410	2.87
4	45.0	93	10.33	51	180	0	1	0	7	7	17	0	10	4	0	6.10	0.354	2.03
2	44.0	94	4.33	23	88	0	1	0	4	3	6	0	5	2	1	6.24	0.316	1.85
14	41.6	93	38.00	166	582	1	1	1	14	14	37	4	26	13	0	3.32	0.245	1.32
10	40.0	93	27.99	122	400	1	0	0	12	11	29	1	19	11	0	3.54	0.257	1.43
4	38.8	92	8.67	44	155	0	0	0	6	1	10	0	7	5	0	1.04	0.278	1.73
16	36.5	93	39.00	174	584	4	1	2	15	14	46	1	28	12	2	3.23	0.282	1.49
10	34.9	92	22.01	102	349	1	2	1	13	9	23	1	15	8	0	3.68	0.258	1.41
2	33.0	92	5.33	20	66	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	5	0	0	0.00	0.158	0.56
125	21.6	92	182.31	806	2697	12	14	10	101	93	199	11	108	66	4	4.59	0.267	1.45

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was in the green (95-98%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, there was data was every sub-bucket, with double-digit IP from all but one:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
232	29.6	96	444.27	2043	6872	29	26	19	257	238	541	20	283	168	6	4.82	0.289	1.60
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
15	68.1	97	56.00	296	1022	0	6	1	53	51	85	4	34	46	0	8.20	0.336	2.34
4	45.0	96	11.00	49	180	1	0	1	3	3	10	1	7	7	0	2.45	0.233	1.55
10	43.5	96	28.32	132	435	4	2	0	17	16	36	0	22	4	2	5.08	0.298	1.41
18	41.4	96	46.00	219	746	3	1	1	23	23	70	1	20	16	0	4.50	0.337	1.87
12	40.0	96	33.33	149	480	0	2	1	17	16	36	1	21	8	1	4.32	0.265	1.32
3	38.3	97	6.33	31	115	1	0	0	3	1	7	0	4	5	1	1.42	0.269	1.90
6	36.5	96	14.00	62	219	0	1	2	4	4	16	0	11	9	0	2.57	0.276	1.79
9	34.3	96	19.34	88	309	0	0	1	10	10	27	2	17	5	0	4.65	0.318	1.65
6	33.0	96	12.66	58	198	0	1	0	5	5	13	1	9	6	0	3.55	0.255	1.50
149	21.3	97	217.29	959	3168	20	13	12	122	109	241	10	138	62	2	4.51	0.270	1.39

Here is the bucket for in-game fatigue for Marshall for games in which his starting fatigue was essentially 100% (99-100%). For in-game fatigue sub-buckets, if there are certain buckets missing, that means there was no data for that bucket from this sample. As you can see here, and was alluded to in the opening post, there was at least 50 IP of data from every sub-bucket from this data set:

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
1512	30.4	100	2948.85	13467	45986	162	191	117	1881	1694	3567	161	1970	1141	44	5.17	0.287	1.60
G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP
185	62.9	100	641.73	3324	11629	10	75	2	734	678	1019	71	378	421	11	9.51	0.346	2.24
26	45.0	100	76.32	344	1170	1	4	0	34	32	88	2	51	34	0	3.77	0.278	1.60
36	43.4	100	95.33	443	1561	3	4	3	53	44	118	3	82	40	2	4.15	0.292	1.66
75	41.4	100	191.74	903	3104	10	16	2	119	106	243	8	127	82	3	4.98	0.297	1.70
56	40.0	100	141.67	645	2240	5	8	1	87	73	164	3	102	58	5	4.64	0.278	1.57
37	38.7	100	93.65	414	1433	3	5	1	47	43	107	4	71	27	2	4.13	0.276	1.43
58	36.3	100	139.34	628	2106	9	3	4	73	59	160	7	96	41	2	3.81	0.277	1.44
66	34.7	100	151.98	666	2291	5	5	6	65	54	161	6	107	48	1	3.20	0.261	1.38
27	33.0	100	55.32	256	891	5	3	4	29	23	61	4	34	24	0	3.74	0.269	1.54
946	20.7	100	1361.77	5844	19561	111	68	94	640	582	1446	53	922	366	18	3.85	0.261	1.33

Here's all of the sub-buckets sorted by sample size (IP). I've bolded the groups that have more than 50 IP and noted on the right-hand margin a few of pairs of data that I find interesting where the in-game and pitch-based fatigue where at different levels, but the combined fatigue was similar, and the results thereof. There are other combined fatigue results that are similar, but the in-game/pitch-based fatigue were also similar, so I didn't call them out.

G	AVG PC	Fatigue %	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP	Combined Fatigue %
1	38.0	78	1.67	10	38	0	0	0	4	4	3	0	0	2	0	21.56	0.375	2.99	65.58
1	38.0	70	2.00	12	38	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	1	2	0	0.00	0.250	2.00	58.85
3	15.7	57	2.67	15	47	0	2	0	6	6	7	2	0	1	0	20.25	0.467	3.00	57.00
1	47.0	71	2.67	14	47	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	1	0	0.00	0.333	1.87	40.20
2	41.0	78	3.00	23	82	0	1	0	6	0	8	0	2	4	0	0.00	0.471	4.00	58.07
1	45.0	70	3.33	14	45	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	0.00	0.167	1.50	43.90
2	44.0	94	4.33	23	88	0	1	0	4	3	6	0	5	2	1	6.24	0.316	1.85	61.50
2	40.0	70	5.00	24	80	0	0	0	2	1	6	0	2	3	1	1.80	0.286	1.80	54.58
3	39.0	84	5.00	31	117	1	0	0	8	7	8	0	3	7	0	12.60	0.348	3.00	67.79
2	33.0	92	5.33	20	66	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	5	0	0	0.00	0.158	0.56	90.89
3	33.0	86	6.00	28	99	0	1	0	4	4	9	1	4	2	0	6.00	0.333	1.83	85.75
3	45.0	83	6.33	39	135	0	3	0	11	5	15	0	2	5	0	7.11	0.441	3.16	52.06
2	40.0	82	6.33	25	80	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	3	1	0	0.00	0.208	0.95	63.94
3	38.3	97	6.33	31	115	1	0	0	3	1	7	0	4	5	1	1.42	0.269	1.90	80.29
2	36.5	73	6.67	22	73	0	0	0	3	3	6	0	1	1	0	4.05	0.231	1.05	64.27
3	43.7	86	7.34	40	131	0	1	1	6	6	14	0	2	5	0	7.36	0.389	2.59	57.66
3	43.3	83	7.67	35	130	0	1	0	7	7	10	2	8	3	0	8.21	0.303	1.69	56.05
4	36.5	77	8.00	41	146	1	0	0	6	5	14	0	5	3	0	5.63	0.368	2.13	68.48
4	33.0	78	8.00	37	132	2	0	0	4	4	6	1	3	7	0	4.50	0.200	1.63	77.23
3	56.3	77	8.67	48	169	1	2	0	9	9	14	1	7	7	0	9.34	0.350	2.42	21.77
5	36.2	81	8.67	47	181	0	0	0	7	7	12	2	9	8	0	7.27	0.316	2.31	72.91
4	38.8	92	8.67	44	155	0	0	0	6	1	10	0	7	5	0	1.04	0.278	1.73	75.45
4	41.3	87	9.67	46	165	0	1	0	6	6	11	1	5	6	0	5.58	0.275	1.76	64.52
4	34.8	86	10.00	41	139	1	0	1	1	1	8	1	3	4	0	0.90	0.211	1.20	81.07
4	45.0	93	10.33	51	180	0	1	0	7	7	17	0	10	4	0	6.10	0.354	2.03	58.33
4	45.0	56	11.00	53	180	0	2	0	12	12	15	2	2	6	1	9.82	0.313	1.91	34.81
4	45.0	96	11.00	49	180	1	0	1	3	3	10	1	7	7	0	2.45	0.233	1.55	60.06
5	38.2	88	12.00	55	191	0	0	2	2	1	12	0	12	6	0	0.75	0.250	1.50	73.12
5	40.0	87	12.33	61	200	1	2	0	10	8	20	1	7	3	1	5.84	0.351	1.87	67.53
6	33.0	96	12.66	58	198	0	1	0	5	5	13	1	9	6	0	3.55	0.255	1.50	95.36
4	68.8	65	12.67	79	275	0	1	0	23	23	30	3	3	12	0	16.34	0.441	3.32	-6.29
6	35.0	82	13.67	60	210	0	0	0	4	4	17	0	10	3	0	2.63	0.293	1.46	75.98
6	36.7	87	13.67	62	220	1	1	1	6	6	16	0	12	5	0	3.95	0.281	1.54	76.68
6	36.5	96	14.00	62	219	0	1	2	4	4	16	0	11	9	0	2.57	0.276	1.79	85.40
6	34.8	78	14.67	64	209	0	0	1	8	8	16	1	6	4	1	4.91	0.267	1.36	72.65
7	41.1	71	15.33	80	288	0	0	0	17	17	26	2	9	9	0	9.98	0.361	2.28	53.10
19	14.5	72	17.98	84	275	1	3	5	12	11	26	2	6	5	0	5.51	0.325	1.72	72.21
7	43.6	71	19.33	95	305	3	0	0	18	14	30	5	5	9	0	6.52	0.341	2.02	47.53
9	34.3	96	19.34	88	309	0	0	1	10	10	27	2	17	5	0	4.65	0.318	1.65	91.66
6	58.8	83	20.67	109	353	0	2	0	27	27	45	2	8	5	0	11.76	0.421	2.42	16.93
8	52.9	55	21.67	124	423	0	3	0	39	38	42	7	8	18	1	15.78	0.393	2.77	21.28
10	34.9	92	22.01	102	349	1	2	1	13	9	23	1	15	8	0	3.68	0.258	1.41	85.86
20	21.1	66	25.67	123	422	3	4	1	14	13	30	2	20	15	0	4.56	0.280	1.75	65.50
10	40.0	93	27.99	122	400	1	0	0	12	11	29	1	19	11	0	3.54	0.257	1.43	72.67
10	43.5	96	28.32	132	435	4	2	0	17	16	36	0	22	4	2	5.08	0.298	1.41	64.34
12	40.0	96	33.33	149	480	0	2	1	17	16	36	1	21	8	1	4.32	0.265	1.32	74.66
11	62.7	86	37.01	203	690	1	5	0	44	42	69	6	22	22	0	10.21	0.383	2.46	7.43
14	41.6	93	38.00	166	582	1	1	1	14	14	37	4	26	13	0	3.32	0.245	1.32	68.11
16	36.5	93	39.00	174	584	4	1	2	15	14	46	1	28	12	2	3.23	0.282	1.49	82.17
18	41.4	96	46.00	219	746	3	1	1	23	23	70	1	20	16	0	4.50	0.337	1.87	70.75
44	17.8	82	50.95	237	785	1	6	8	29	26	72	4	35	14	0	4.59	0.320	1.69	82.23	#
27	33.0	100	55.32	256	891	5	3	4	29	23	61	4	34	24	0	3.74	0.269	1.54	99.26
15	68.1	97	56.00	296	1022	0	6	1	53	51	85	4	34	46	0	8.20	0.336	2.34	-7.60
41	19.8	77	56.68	259	812	5	2	2	34	28	65	3	24	17	0	4.45	0.277	1.45	77.07	*
26	45.0	100	76.32	344	1170	1	4	0	34	32	88	2	51	34	0	3.77	0.278	1.60	62.72
37	38.7	100	93.65	414	1433	3	5	1	47	43	107	4	71	27	2	4.13	0.276	1.43	81.78	#
36	43.4	100	95.33	443	1561	3	4	3	53	44	118	3	82	40	2	4.15	0.292	1.66	67.72
26	83.0	92	107.66	622	2159	1	20	0	180	169	224	28	44	85	0	14.13	0.410	2.87	-49.26
100	19.3	87	135.31	591	1929	13	6	17	62	49	141	7	75	42	1	3.26	0.258	1.35	86.52	^
58	36.3	100	139.34	628	2106	9	3	4	73	59	160	7	96	41	2	3.81	0.277	1.44	89.21	^
56	40.0	100	141.67	645	2240	5	8	1	87	73	164	3	102	58	5	4.64	0.278	1.57	77.97	*
66	34.7	100	151.98	666	2291	5	5	6	65	54	161	6	107	48	1	3.20	0.261	1.38	94.08
125	21.6	92	182.31	806	2697	12	14	10	101	93	199	11	108	66	4	4.59	0.267	1.45	91.96
75	41.4	100	191.74	903	3104	10	16	2	119	106	243	8	127	82	3	4.98	0.297	1.70	73.73
149	21.3	97	217.29	959	3168	20	13	12	122	109	241	10	138	62	2	4.51	0.270	1.39	96.52
185	62.9	100	641.73	3324	11629	10	75	2	734	678	1019	71	378	421	11	9.51	0.346	2.24	8.24
946	20.7	100	1361.77	5844	19561	111	68	94	640	582	1446	53	922	366	18	3.85	0.261	1.33	99.97

Here's what I consider to be the most interesting pull from this set of data. Below are cumulative totals for each fatigue group AND all of those above it. So, the first row is ALL game logs from the set, the second row is all rows minus just the 0-59% (combined fatigue), the third row is all rows minus the 0-64%... the last row is only the 99-100%. This shows the cumulative effect of fatigue on your pitchers:

G	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP	Combined Fatigue %
2310	4448.04	20571	69959	246	307	190	2943	2655	5538	285	2846	1785	63	5.37	0.293	1.65	0%+
2011	3445.97	15271	51551	230	181	186	1740	1543	3854	150	2297	1114	49	4.03	0.272	1.44	60%+
1961	3303.33	14630	49360	224	173	185	1673	1480	3692	146	2203	1059	46	4.03	0.271	1.44	65%+
1878	3117.33	13755	46294	214	162	180	1564	1385	3462	136	2060	976	43	4.00	0.270	1.42	70%+
1728	2764.95	12112	40708	199	140	168	1364	1202	3018	120	1840	836	38	3.91	0.267	1.39	75%+
1611	2522.59	11005	36939	186	129	164	1223	1086	2740	113	1682	741	33	3.87	0.266	1.38	80%+
1507	2322.66	10108	33883	176	117	152	1128	1001	2500	103	1541	679	28	3.88	0.264	1.37	85%+
1330	2006.00	8697	29181	153	104	128	972	876	2151	87	1340	577	25	3.93	0.263	1.36	90%+
1128	1647.04	7117	23818	136	85	110	796	719	1761	68	1103	458	20	3.93	0.263	1.35	95%+
973	1417.09	6100	20452	116	71	98	669	605	1507	57	956	390	18	3.84	0.262	1.34	99%+

This chart is identical to the one above, except instead of being cumulative, it is inclusive. For example, row one ONLY includes games from 0-59% (combined fatigue), row two only includes games from 60-64%... and the last row only includes games from 99-100%. This shows the effectiveness of pitchers at a specific fatigue level (remembering the baseline stats of Marshall and that this is an $80m league):

G	IP	BFP	PC	W	L	SV	R	ER	H	HR	SO	BB	WP	ERA	OAV	WHIP	Combined Fatigue %
299	1002.07	5300	18408	16	126	4	1203	1112	1684	135	549	671	14	9.99	0.359	2.35	<60%
50	142.64	641	2191	6	8	1	67	63	162	4	94	55	3	3.98	0.275	1.52	60-65%
83	186.00	875	3066	10	11	5	109	95	230	10	143	83	3	4.60	0.292	1.68	65-70%
150	352.38	1643	5586	15	22	12	200	183	444	16	220	140	5	4.67	0.296	1.66	70-75%
129	275.69	1256	4249	13	13	5	158	132	314	8	179	103	6	4.31	0.275	1.51	75-80%
104	199.93	897	3056	10	12	12	95	85	240	10	141	62	5	3.83	0.286	1.51	80-85%
177	316.66	1411	4702	23	13	24	156	125	349	16	201	102	3	3.55	0.269	1.42	85-90%
202	358.96	1580	5363	17	19	18	176	157	390	19	237	119	5	3.94	0.266	1.42	90-95%
155	229.95	1017	3366	20	14	12	127	114	254	11	147	68	2	4.46	0.269	1.40	95-99%
973	1417.09	6100	20452	116	71	98	669	605	1507	57	956	390	18	3.84	0.262	1.34	99-100%

As I mentioned in the first post, this was not a fatigue test league. Aside from that, Marshall is not a pitcher who is ideal for pitching fatigued for a number of reasons, nor were any of these teams designed to minimize the impacts of fatigue. You can see a decline in performance across fatigue levels, but can easily see how if choosing pitchers, defense, and ballpark with fatigue in mind, one could effectively control for fatigue to the 85% level. And with better understanding or skill, even take that all the way to the 75% level without seeing a significant drop in performance.

The current TWISL league is testing this very idea and is 144 games into the season. Once that league wraps up, I plan to pull the data from all the pitchers there (like I did here) and add that to similar game log pulls I've been doing for years. With all of that data I will have more than 11,000 individual games spanning over 240 player seasons. The vast majority of which were built with fatigue in mind: pitchers, ballparks, and defenses chosen very carefully to minimize the effects we see here with Marshall.

It's a ton of data, and takes a good amount of time to put together, but I've been working on this for a long time and hope to have it out soon. I'll also have the current Marshall data and all the rest exported to a google sheets document early next week and I'll update that link here for anyone that wants to dig into this data on their own.

Future Link Location: Google Sheet for Marshall Data

Thanks for assembling (and publishing) this data! Great stuff.

You explain that "in-game" fatigue represents fatigue due to Marshall exceeding his allocated pitch count in a given game based on his RL IP/G. Is "pitch-based" fatigue simply based on his % as displayed at the beginning of each game in which he pitches, or is there something more to it than that?