Posted by gillispie1 on 2/20/2021 11:13:00 AM (view original):
Posted by topdogggbm on 2/20/2021 10:15:00 AM (view original):
Posted by gillispie1 on 2/19/2021 11:50:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mlitney on 2/19/2021 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by shoe3 on 2/19/2021 1:54:00 PM (view original):
Ambivalent on promises. I think they’re fine as is. Teams who are giving starts and significant time to freshmen are risking games and potentially postseason seeding, and that matters. It’s a pretty balanced risk/reward choice right now. Promises are most powerfully utilized by teams who are “punching up” for recruits, a C+ team battling an A team for a recruit, where the C+ team can promise a start and 25, while the A team may only want to promise 10 or 15, or nothing at all. Dis-incentivizing the promise will discourage these battles over time, which is probably the opposite of what we want.
I think it makes some sense to have players with a “wants to play” preference lose work ethic faster, and maybe transfer in progressive years in cases when they lose *significant* minutes. They don’t seem to ever transfer now, and that maybe isn’t necessary. But definitely don’t make it absolute, nor for all players. And it really shouldn’t apply to losing a starting spot, either. I don’t think any player in real life is guaranteed a 4-year starting spot, that doesn’t seem realistic. At that level, it should be understood you have to perform on the court every year, because coach is on the trail this year making the same kinds of promises to next year’s freshmen that he made to you last year.
And a hard pass on extending to the postseason in any year. LOL to the idea that any recruit is going to influence Coach K or Coach Cal on a postseason lineup decision with a “Now coach, I know it’s the Final 4, but remember what you told me that one time at my High School gym...”
I disagree with you on postseason seeding mattering that much. Every season in every world you see teams that are hampered by starting freshmen get low seeds, only to start their upperclassmen in the postseason and make the FF as an 8-10 seed. I know we've all been stung as a top seed losing in the 2nd round to a great team that started 3 freshman in the regular season. I'd say the risk is much lower than the reward, especially since success in this game is 80% recruiting.
I also feel like having to manage promises/starts will help to separate the good coaches from the great ones. And if anything, I feel like it benefits lower prestige schools who can be a little more careless with promises. They won't be targeting multiple 5-star recruits each season and so they can afford to offer big minutes and starts to 1 recruit where top tier teams really can't.
Also, as an added benefit, there will almost certainly be more top-tier transfers which helps out with the EE situation.
success is wayyyyyyyyyy less than 80% recruiting, even in the most expansive view of what recruiting entails. i don't know why coaching and game understanding get such a bad wrap in this game. there's no way i would trade my mastery on the coaching side for equal mastery on the recruiting side. its not even close.
Gil, generally even if I don't agree with one of your opinions, I always respect you. And I know you know a lot about this game. You're very good at the game. And you have the right mindset about approaching the game. You're helpful, give good advice, all sorts of things.
But 80% recruiting is not too high at all. Go pick a crap team and let's see this mastery of coaching go to work. I feel I have a masters in coaching as well. But not a single coach in this game can do well without talent.
Coaching can make a non tourney team, a tourney team. Coaching can make a 1st round team a S16 team. But coaching can NOT make a 1st round team in to a F4 team or a title team. It's just not do-able. Talent trumps all. Coaching has an impact. And good coaches like you and I can stretch that further than maybe an average coach can. But your mastery of coaching is NOT going to do unthinkable things. It's just NOT man. If you have examples (with proof, numbers, stats, etc) share them here.
Using my D2 brain, it's generally around 70 ATH/DEF that makes good teams. So I'm not asking to see teams that are 65/65, because I've won with that. That's not Mastery. That's still talent. I'm talking about I wanna see where you've done amazing things with a team that's 50/50. Because THAT would be coaching mastery that has a major impact. 70/70 is recruiting talent. 65/65 is recruiting talent. 50/50 would be coaching talent if you can succeed.
(Now of course translate that to D1 numbers since you're a D1 coach. And show me this evidence of Master gil with **** recruiting on a **** team that can do amazing things. Only THEN will I believe you)
this is such ridiculous hyperbole its hard to even take seriously. i said recruiting is way less than 80% - and i stand by that 100%. in no way does that mean someone can take a 50/50 crap team and beat 70/70 great teams. that's not what its about.
first off - i consider player evaluation (how good recruits are - not which to target) and EE planning to both be coaching functions. the primary driver of those decisions is the understanding of what makes players and team goods, not understanding of recruiting mechanics. by that view i'd call recruiting mechanics about 30% of success. but most folks look at recruiting more broadly, which as i said i kinda disagree with, but even under that view... 80% is nuts.
by the reverse logic, if recruiting is 80%, show me a ridiculously terribly coached team with awesome players who won... you won't be able to either. it would be ridiculous hyperbole just like yours?
anyway here's the rub. excellent recruiting and good coaching is enough to be pretty successful in this game. there are top 25 coaches all time who i would describe as such. if recruiting was SO much more important, you'd expect the reverse to be not nearly enough. excellent coaching with good recruiting - is that enough to be amazing? that is the question i think is reasonable, not whether i can take a sim ai recruited d1 team to the final 4. if recruiting is so much more important than coaching, i would think the assertion would go like "good recruiting with excellent coaching shouldn't be enough for world domination". but it is.
i'd be happy to continue the conversation, but only on the terms of some mutually agreeable perspective. there's no point in us going back in forth if you are taking my pushback to 'recruiting is almost everything' as something that requires proof of vastly inferior teams destroying the best ones. my claim is that people over-emphasize recruiting, and that exceptional coaching can lead to exceptional results, with merely good recruiting. and to quantify a bit, i feel like if i was roughly the 100th best recruiter in the game d1 today, i could compete for the best program in the game pretty easily. similarly, the best recruiting coach in the game could do that if they were the 100th best coaching coach. i'm not saying the coaching is vastly more important. i'm saying recruiting isn't.
Gil I purposely stretched it to be able to point out what I'm getting at. Having said that, I only read like the first sentence and will read it later.
But my point is, a 70/70 team and a 65/65 team can be equal or different. There's other aspects of the game, ball skills, scoring, etc. But if you don't think recruiting is 80%, what do you think it is? 50%? And if you do think it's 50%, then it WOULD take you winning with a crap roster (somewhat) for me to believe that. If you think recruiting is 75%, then why are we even discussing this? That's close to 80%. Almost the same thing. So from what I'm taking from your conversation about "mastery coaching", that would have to mean significantly worse team. If you're not talking about having a chance with a significantly worse team, then we're back to recruiting being 75 to 80% again.
So fill me in on what percentage you think, and we'll go from there
One more add on..... generally speaking, good coaches are good coaches because they can recruit AND game plan. If we take every coach that has 10 titles (or maybe not even titles. Let's say 20 or 30 F4s), none of them would be terrible recruiters or terrible game planners. I've ALWAYS agreed with your point about "factoring in EEs, seeing into the future for your roster balance, etc" being part of game planning. You couldn't be more right about that. That's what makes a great coach an elite coach.
So for what I'm getting at, let's say we took 16 solid teams and 16 elite coaches. And played 16 different "S16 and beyond tourneys". And all the teams stayed the same each time. Some with different strengths. Some have better ball skills, some have better ATH/DEF, some have better shooting, etc. But we each got to play 1 time with all 16 of the teams. In a round Robin type of setup. Does that make sense.
If we were to do that, I'm willing to bet that Gil doesn't go 16-0 winning every title because of his mastery coaching. I bet it would be fairly equal in wins amongst the coaching part (some would do better than others I'm sure. But it wouldn't be total domination by one or a couple). But what I believe we would see is a couple of those 16 teams be dominant over the rest. Whichever teams were built the best in our random format.
2/20/2021 3:57 PM (edited)