AAA don’t provide much value overall. The pitchers are roughly between 25-110 IP, usually you’ll get around 60-80 IP combined from your pitchers. If you get less they’re better quality, if you get more they’re garbage.
the hitters are roughly between 150-600 PA and it’s the same story, the fewer pa the better quality, and the more pa, the worse quality.
in both cases because of the aaa players in OLs normalizing to the last season instead of their RL season, that sometimes skews that valuation in either direction. But on average, your AAA players are worth about 1.5 wins more than the scrubs you’d draft to send down for them, the absolute best aaa players are worth around 4.5 wins more than your scrubs. If you’re not sending down scrubs and sending down PH/platoon style players, you’re rarely gaining more than a win, even with the best AAA player. And when you are it’s usually because you also drafted excess PA and are able to waive that player you sent down and pick up an RP or more streamlined PH/platoon player that now compliments your AAA added roster.
the impact is incredibly minimal and really only impacts those who were fully able to capitalize on AAA value to begin with.
that said, the idea that you’ll need to draft more IP or PA to compensate is only true if you were bringing less than 1200 innings (1,150 + 50 IP of $200k scrubs sent down) and less than 5,000 PA. Otherwise, you can still bring whatever you brought before.
I recently ran two identical teams in an OL and CL testing fatigue (I’ll post the exact roster tomorrow when I have access to my computer - Roster now below). The OL team won 89 games and the CL team won 83. Both took the WC, both made the WS (funny enough, the CL version won) and both ended up in the final 4 of the same TOC. The kicker, I only brought around 1,040 IP (I’ll get exact total tomorrow - 1,046 IP, see roster below) and sent the rest of my scrub IP down so they wouldn’t be used (these were pitching fatigue test teams). I am no longer testing pitching fatigue, but have been focused on drafting teams for Coors, and most of them bring 1,175-1,250 IP and I rarely run into fatigue problems there. I’ve brought 1,300-1,370 on a couple where my pitching quality was lower thinking I’d need more IP to offset the quality, but that hasn’t been the case there either. Even the $8m pitching staff I entered with a little extra IP, I ended up waiving IP away because I didn’t need it and ran with around 1,220 for 130-140 games.
the idea that you’ll need 1,500 IP and 6,000 PA is ludicrous.
1,300 and 5,300 are good starting points and you can adjust up/down from there depending on the rest of your roster/ballpark.
(From my phone, and possibly a little rambling)
[Edited to add in the inning totals I couldn't remember with certainty prior]:
Pitching Staff:
Role |
Player |
T |
W-L-S |
IP/162 |
ERA |
OAV |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
K-BB |
Salary |
|
|
SP |
1997 Greg Maddux |
R |
19-4-0 |
233 |
2.20 |
.236 |
0.95 |
6.85 |
0.77 |
0.35 |
177-20 |
$9,282,997 |
|
|
SP/RP |
1996 Kevin Brown |
R |
17-11-0 |
233 |
1.89 |
.220 |
0.94 |
6.14 |
1.27 |
0.31 |
159-33 |
$9,903,221 |
|
|
SP/RP |
2003 Jason Schmidt |
R |
17-5-0 |
208 |
2.34 |
.200 |
0.95 |
9.01 |
1.99 |
0.61 |
208-46 |
$8,643,694 |
|
|
SP/RP |
2002 Derek Lowe |
R |
21-8-0 |
220 |
2.59 |
.211 |
0.98 |
5.21 |
1.97 |
0.49 |
127-48 |
$8,509,896 |
|
|
SP/RP |
2006 Brandon League |
R |
1-2-1 |
43 |
2.53 |
.214 |
1.01 |
6.12 |
1.90 |
0.63 |
29-9 |
$1,295,019 |
|
|
SP/RP |
2013 Brandon Cumpton |
R |
2-1-0 |
31 |
2.05 |
.226 |
1.01 |
6.46 |
1.47 |
0.29 |
22-5 |
$902,725 |
|
|
SP/RP |
1993 Steve Foster |
R |
2-2-0 |
26 |
1.75 |
.235 |
1.09 |
5.61 |
1.75 |
0.35 |
16-5 |
$655,886 |
|
|
SP/RP |
1987 Jeff D. Robinson |
R |
2-1-4 |
27 |
3.04 |
.215 |
0.98 |
6.41 |
2.03 |
0.34 |
19-6 |
$823,439 |
|
|
SP/RP |
2019 Joe Smith |
R |
1-0-0 |
25 |
1.80 |
.209 |
0.96 |
7.92 |
1.80 |
0.72 |
22-5 |
$752,585 |
|
|
SP/RP |
optional |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SP/RP |
optional |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SP/RP |
optional |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SP/RP |
optional |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pitching Totals |
82-34-5 |
1,046 |
2.25 |
.218 |
0.96 |
6.72 |
1.53 |
0.44 |
779-177 |
$40,769,462 |
Then I also drafted, but tried not to use (Elmer Brown threw 2.0 IP for each of the two teams and I used a AAA pitcher for 10.33 IP on the CL team and for 8.33 IP on the OL team):
|
|
SP/RP |
2005 Danny Graves |
R |
1-1-10 |
39 |
6.52 |
.347 |
2.04 |
4.66 |
4.66 |
2.09 |
20-20 |
$222,702 |
|
|
SP/RP |
1914 Elmer Brown |
R |
1-2-0 |
39 |
3.93 |
.402 |
1.53 |
5.40 |
5.64 |
0.49 |
22-23 |
$212,643 |
|
|
SP/RP |
1931 Dutch Schesler |
R |
0-0-0 |
41 |
7.28 |
.385 |
2.17 |
3.29 |
4.23 |
0.94 |
14-18 |
$230,368 |
|
|
SP/RP |
2016 Tim Lincecum |
R |
2-6-0 |
38 |
9.16 |
.395 |
2.37 |
7.51 |
5.40 |
2.58 |
32-23 |
$203,127 |
Pitching Totals |
86-43-15 |
1,203 |
2.82 |
.239 |
1.10 |
6.53 |
1.97 |
0.58 |
867-261 |
$41,638,302 |
The hitters:
|
Pos |
Player |
B |
PA/162 |
AB/162 |
HR |
RBI |
SB-CS |
SO-BB |
AB/HR |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
F/R |
Salary |
|
|
C |
1916 Wally Schang |
S |
423 |
358 |
7 |
38 |
14-17 |
44-38 |
48.3 |
.266 |
.358 |
.420 |
C/B |
$2,943,179 |
|
|
1B |
1980 Willie Aikens |
L |
623 |
543 |
20 |
98 |
1-0 |
88-64 |
27.2 |
.278 |
.356 |
.433 |
C/D- |
$3,394,650 |
|
|
2B |
1889 Lou Bierbauer |
L |
709 |
669 |
7 |
105 |
17-20 |
30-29 |
78.4 |
.304 |
.344 |
.417 |
C/A+ |
$5,674,654 |
|
|
3B |
1988 Bobby Bonilla |
S |
690 |
592 |
24 |
100 |
3-5 |
82-85 |
24.3 |
.274 |
.366 |
.476 |
C-/A+ |
$5,554,551 |
|
|
SS |
1936 Dick Bartell |
R |
603 |
537 |
8 |
42 |
6-7 |
36-40 |
63.8 |
.298 |
.355 |
.418 |
B-/A+ |
$5,142,781 |
|
|
OF |
1973 Billy North |
S |
642 |
554 |
5 |
34 |
53-20 |
89-78 |
110.8 |
.285 |
.376 |
.348 |
B-/A+ |
$5,628,796 |
|
|
OF |
1921 Max Carey |
S |
662 |
552 |
7 |
56 |
37-12 |
30-70 |
74.4 |
.309 |
.395 |
.430 |
C-/A+ |
$5,644,324 |
|
|
OF |
1919 Nemo Leibold |
L |
603 |
503 |
0 |
26 |
17-20 |
30-72 |
434.0 |
.302 |
.404 |
.353 |
D/C |
$3,509,303 |
|
|
C |
2006 Chris Widger |
R |
87 |
76 |
1 |
7 |
0-0 |
20-9 |
76.0 |
.184 |
.264 |
.263 |
D+/B- |
$203,899 |
|
|
3B |
1925 Ralph Michaels |
R |
59 |
53 |
0 |
6 |
1-0 |
9-6 |
50.0 |
.280 |
.357 |
.300 |
C/D- |
$208,794 |
|
|
Util |
2001 Mario Valdez |
L |
67 |
54 |
1 |
8 |
0-0 |
18-12 |
54.0 |
.278 |
.418 |
.352 |
D-/D- |
$256,151 |
|
|
Util |
1980 Steve Braun |
L |
88 |
78 |
1 |
10 |
0-0 |
7-10 |
78.0 |
.205 |
.295 |
.269 |
D-/D- |
$200,233 |
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|
Batting Totals |
5256 |
4569 |
81 |
530 |
149-101 |
483-513 |
53.0 |
.286 |
.366 |
.406 |
C-/B- |
I used the AAA C on each team as a backup for Schang when he fatigued below 80% (I really wanted the results to mirror as much as possible, so didn't want random AAA influencing outcomes) these catchers received 34 PA and 62 PA. A few others came in as PH or to rest others and accumulated 50 total PA between the four others on the CL team, and 48 total PA between three others on the OL team). So, including AAA and scrubs, the CL team used 12.33 IP from outside the 1,046 drafted for the test and 84 PA outside the test roster. The OL team used 10.33 IP and 110 PA. These were teams that brought 1,046 IP and 5256 PA. Both went to the WS and the final 4 of their TOC.
Yes, I pushed the limits about as far as possible, but this just goes to show that you don't ever need 1500 IP or 6000 PA. And the impact of AAA in terms of drafting is overstated. They're valuable, yes, but the impact of this change is not as detrimental as some are thinking it to be. This change of AAA should be a good shakeup with less to learn and understand for new owners, and bring about both more realism and less randomness to a game that already has a bunch of randomness built into the outcomes naturally.
2/22/2021 12:22 PM (edited)