As many may may have seen with the recent discussions on dynamic pricing, the topic of value of deadball and modern pitchers, especially as it relates to defense has been frequently argued and cited. We just completed a running of a TWISL (Testing WIS League) for this purpose. Here is how the league was setup:

GOALS: Here are the things I'd like this league to be able to contribute to:

• Increase our understanding of pitcher value - specifically as defense effects overall performance: but more importantly we will look at stats like RA/9 instead of ERA, and we'll calculate OAV and WHIP with errors counting as hits to get a true feel for how teams are impacted since the effect of errors doesn't show up in the traditional pitching stats (ERA/OAV/WHIP).
• How many more errors will a team of deadball pitchers allow over a team of modern pitchers?
• What effect will the increase of errors (if any) have on team performance?
• How big of an advantage (if any) do teams with deadball pitchers have over teams with modern pitchers?
• Have fun!

Here's how it will play out:
24 teams (12 owners with 2 teams each):
Salary: $80 million
AAA: No
WW: No
Clones: Allowed
Trades: No
DH: No

TEAM COMPOSITION:
Every owner submits two teams.

Offense: Both teams must share the same offense. You can draft whatever hitters you want, but both your teams must have identical offenses. At least 1,000 PA must have a HR/100# of 5 or greater (to account for and see/incorporate the value deadball pitchers provide in HR suppression).

Pitching: One of your two teams can only draft pitchers from 1888-1919 and the other can only draft pitchers from 1985-2016 (to keep people from taking advantage of 2017-2020 not using dynamic pricing and upsetting the value test. Plus that leaves 31 seasons of pitching options for both rosters).

BALLPARK: Any ballpark may be used, but both teams must use the same ballpark.

ALIGNMENT: There will be two different "groups" for the test. Group A (Deadball Pitchers) and Group B (Modern Pitchers), 12 teams each. Each league will have 6 of each group, each division will have 2 of each group. Each owner will have 1 team in each league. Alignment will be random and adjusted, if necessary, to meet the conditions set above.

First, here are the league-average traditional stats:

Deadball ERA	4.58	Modern ERA	4.76
Deadball OAV	0.262	Modern OAV	0.261
Deadball WHIP	1.51	Modern WHIP	1.46
Deadball HR	86	Modern HR	138
Deadball HR/9	0.53	Modern HR/9	0.86

From this it would appear the deadball pitchers had a slight value advantage. For the same $ spent on pitching staffs, the deadball pitchers had a lower ERA same OAV and allowed less HR. Once we add in the effect of errors, though, we have the following:

Deadball E	227	Modern E	163
Deadball FLD%	0.965	Modern FLD%	0.974

Deadball RA/9	5.61	Modern RA/9	5.55
Deadball OAV+E	0.299	Modern OAV+E	0.288
Deadball WHIP+E	1.67	Modern WHIP+E	1.57

This result led to the following:

Deadball W	81.42	Modern W	80.67
Deadball W%	0.502	Modern W%	0.498

I posted this in the league as well: "100+ win teams: 2 modern, 2 deadball. 90-99 win teams: 4 modern, 4 deadball."

Now, there were four teams that dealt with fatigue, two that had severe fatigue and two that had moderate fatigue. As luck would have it, both groups were split deadball/modern and AL/NL, so the overall effect on the league stats was minimal, if it any impact at all in terms of shifting this. The one aside on that is that of the two severely fatigued teams, the modern team won 9 less games than the deadball version (16 wins and 27 wins). If you balanced out just those severely fatigued teams to 21 each, then the W-L totals shift to:

Deadball W	80.58	Modern W	81.42
Deadball W%	0.497	Modern W%	0.502

Showing how really close this was. Essentially, I think this makes it very clear, there is no value difference between deadball or modern pitchers once you account for errors and XBH/HR rates. The run allowance and W/L records the various pitching eras provide for the price are essentially identical.

The base salary seems to really account for these variances exceptionally well in terms of pricing actual sim value.

For myself, I prefer modern pitchers, as I believe it is easier to build offense/defense/ballpark around them as you have multiple ways to get their full value, where with deadball pitchers, to get full value, you are limited to a very specific group of defenders which limits your offense/defense/ballpark options.

Here is the data dump for the full league Pitching+Defense Stats:

Owner	Team	G	CG	SHO	W	L	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	OAV	WHIP	ERA	PO	A	E	DP	FPCT	W%	OAV+E	WHIP+E	RA/9	HR/9	TEAM TYPE
Chargingryno	TWISL: Deadball Fielding Test	162	2	0	89	73	32	42	1,439.00	1787	942	761	111	391	378	0.297	1.51	4.76	4317	1925	237	446	0.963	0.549	0.319	1.68	5.89	0.69	Deadball
Contrarian23	TWISL Old	163	1	1	91	72	41	57	1,450.67	1591	660	599	50	364	389	0.277	1.35	3.72	4352	1964	84	439	0.987	0.558	0.278	1.41	4.09	0.31	Deadball
skinndogg	TWISL DOGGS DEADBALLERS ARE ALL DEAD	162	0	0	75	87	41	52	1,455.33	1561	720	611	34	392	450	0.269	1.34	3.78	4366	1903	153	358	0.976	0.463	0.282	1.45	4.45	0.21	Deadball
jfranco77	TWISL Deadballers	162	3	0	93	69	35	49	1,454.00	1587	830	636	83	566	454	0.270	1.48	3.94	4362	1808	243	441	0.962	0.574	0.296	1.65	5.14	0.51	Deadball
Doctorkz	Twisl 1888-1919 Arms	162	0	0	100	62	41	58	1,450.67	1482	689	591	68	416	445	0.257	1.31	3.67	4352	1881	188	376	0.971	0.617	0.277	1.44	4.27	0.42	Deadball
just4me	TWISL - Deadball Pitchers	162	11	1	86	76	33	53	1,446.33	1761	1096	819	104	596	390	0.289	1.63	5.10	4339	1948	343	509	0.948	0.531	0.327	1.87	6.82	0.65	Deadball
teamhydro	Talking to Tesla	162	6	2	90	72	44	58	1,461.33	1447	677	559	31	478	507	0.251	1.32	3.44	4384	1833	192	395	0.970	0.556	0.272	1.45	4.17	0.19	Deadball
schwarze	Old: Full of Krapp & Duryea	162	8	5	103	59	49	59	1,463.67	1238	644	535	54	688	589	0.223	1.32	3.29	4391	1868	205	429	0.968	0.636	0.247	1.46	3.96	0.33	Deadball
fatguyrd	Old Cubs	162	0	0	51	111	22	48	1,427.33	1667	1072	896	81	862	465	0.286	1.77	5.65	4282	1879	228	446	0.964	0.315	0.307	1.93	6.76	0.51	Deadball
jtvaughey	Old Cy	162	10	3	83	79	38	52	1,426.00	1522	923	689	75	843	560	0.263	1.66	4.35	4278	1811	309	344	0.952	0.512	0.300	1.88	5.83	0.47	Deadball
milest	Deadball Pitching & Bad Defense @ Target	162	1	0	27	135	12	26	1,408.67	2171	1732	1420	260	811	495	0.340	2.12	9.07	4226	1785	340	509	0.946	0.167	0.373	2.36	11.07	1.66	Deadball
just4me	Defense Test: Deadball	162	1	0	89	73	30	48	1,446.33	1652	823	697	75	366	294	0.280	1.40	4.34	4339	1942	207	453	0.968	0.549	0.300	1.54	5.12	0.47	Deadball
just4me	Defense Test: Modern	162	3	2	100	62	43	66	1,453.67	1498	680	555	109	300	821	0.258	1.24	3.44	4361	1697	164	350	0.974	0.617	0.276	1.35	4.21	0.67	Modern
fatguyrd	Young Yu	162	3	0	57	105	27	48	1,427.33	1745	1174	1015	176	838	874	0.295	1.81	6.40	4282	1708	174	375	0.972	0.352	0.309	1.93	7.40	1.11	Modern
jtvaughey	Young Wakefield	162	0	0	75	87	42	62	1,430.33	1471	771	662	137	558	1032	0.258	1.42	4.17	4291	1568	172	313	0.971	0.463	0.277	1.54	4.85	0.86	Modern
Chargingryno	TWISL: Modern Fielding Test	163	1	0	92	71	38	54	1,465.67	1774	961	843	168	400	706	0.292	1.48	5.18	4397	1781	172	376	0.973	0.564	0.307	1.60	5.90	1.03	Modern
Contrarian23	TWISL New	162	3	1	83	79	32	46	1,449.00	1719	759	711	107	307	864	0.291	1.40	4.42	4347	1727	73	264	0.988	0.512	0.292	1.45	4.71	0.66	Modern
jfranco77	TWISL Modern-ish	162	1	0	97	65	47	64	1,437.33	1361	682	567	97	378	658	0.242	1.21	3.55	4312	1739	176	344	0.972	0.599	0.263	1.33	4.27	0.61	Modern
Doctorkz	Twisl 1985-2016 Arms	162	9	2	89	73	39	67	1,461.33	1454	714	607	108	465	737	0.254	1.31	3.74	4384	1739	137	342	0.978	0.549	0.266	1.41	4.40	0.67	Modern
just4me	TWISL - Modern Pitchers	162	1	1	102	60	44	65	1,448.33	1565	747	617	127	375	726	0.267	1.34	3.83	4345	1713	195	344	0.969	0.630	0.288	1.47	4.64	0.79	Modern
schwarze	New: My Johnson Needs Orel	162	0	0	96	66	43	59	1,462.33	1254	715	603	136	595	942	0.225	1.26	3.71	4387	1694	167	378	0.973	0.593	0.245	1.38	4.40	0.84	Modern
milest	Modern Pitching & Bad Defense at Target	162	1	1	16	146	7	30	1,388.33	2358	2022	1697	249	1006	558	0.363	2.42	11.00	4165	1716	290	374	0.953	0.099	0.389	2.63	13.11	1.61	Modern
teamhydro	Driving a Tesla	162	2	2	94	68	49	56	1,452.67	1359	636	549	91	462	827	0.242	1.25	3.40	4358	1668	123	344	0.980	0.580	0.254	1.34	3.94	0.56	Modern
skinndogg	Doggs Modern Day Hurlers	162	4	2	67	95	33	44	1,438.67	1503	821	733	155	512	894	0.263	1.40	4.59	4316	1650	118	295	0.981	0.414	0.273	1.48	5.14	0.97	Modern
	Deadball Totals	1945	43	12	977	968	418	602	17329.33	19466	10808	8813	1026	6773	5416	0.262	1.514	4.577	51988	22547	2729	5145	0.965	0.502	0.299	1.67	5.61	0.53	Deadball Total
	Modern Totals	1945	28	11	968	977	444	661	17314.99	19061	10682	9159	1660	6196	9639	0.261	1.459	4.761	51945	20400	1961	4099	0.974	0.498	0.288	1.57	5.55	0.86	Modern Total
	Difference		-15	-1	-9	9	26	59	-14.34	-405	-126	346	634	-577	4223	-0.001	-0.055	0.184	-43	-2147	-768	#####	0.009	-0.005	#####	-0.10	-0.06	0.33	Modern-Deadball

Here is the same data dump sorted by owner so you can see the direct comparison of deadball-modern at an identical offense/defense/ballpark level:

Owner	Team	G	CG	SHO	W	L	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	OAV	WHIP	ERA	PO	A	E	DP	FPCT	W%	OAV+E	WHIP+E	RA/9	HR/9	TEAM TYPE
Chargingryno	TWISL: Deadball Fielding Test	162	2	0	89	73	32	42	1,439.00	1787	942	761	111	391	378	0.297	1.51	4.76	4317	1925	237	446	0.963	0.549	0.319	1.68	5.89	0.69	Deadball
Chargingryno	TWISL: Modern Fielding Test	163	1	0	92	71	38	54	1,465.67	1774	961	843	168	400	706	0.292	1.48	5.18	4397	1781	172	376	0.973	0.564	0.307	1.60	5.90	1.03	Modern
Contrarian23	TWISL Old	163	1	1	91	72	41	57	1,450.67	1591	660	599	50	364	389	0.277	1.35	3.72	4352	1964	84	439	0.987	0.558	0.278	1.41	4.09	0.31	Deadball
Contrarian23	TWISL New	162	3	1	83	79	32	46	1,449.00	1719	759	711	107	307	864	0.291	1.40	4.42	4347	1727	73	264	0.988	0.512	0.292	1.45	4.71	0.66	Modern
Doctorkz	Twisl 1888-1919 Arms	162	0	0	100	62	41	58	1,450.67	1482	689	591	68	416	445	0.257	1.31	3.67	4352	1881	188	376	0.971	0.617	0.277	1.44	4.27	0.42	Deadball
Doctorkz	Twisl 1985-2016 Arms	162	9	2	89	73	39	67	1,461.33	1454	714	607	108	465	737	0.254	1.31	3.74	4384	1739	137	342	0.978	0.549	0.266	1.41	4.40	0.67	Modern
fatguyrd	Old Cubs	162	0	0	51	111	22	48	1,427.33	1667	1072	896	81	862	465	0.286	1.77	5.65	4282	1879	228	446	0.964	0.315	0.307	1.93	6.76	0.51	Deadball
fatguyrd	Young Yu	162	3	0	57	105	27	48	1,427.33	1745	1174	1015	176	838	874	0.295	1.81	6.40	4282	1708	174	375	0.972	0.352	0.309	1.93	7.40	1.11	Modern
jfranco77	TWISL Deadballers	162	3	0	93	69	35	49	1,454.00	1587	830	636	83	566	454	0.270	1.48	3.94	4362	1808	243	441	0.962	0.574	0.296	1.65	5.14	0.51	Deadball
jfranco77	TWISL Modern-ish	162	1	0	97	65	47	64	1,437.33	1361	682	567	97	378	658	0.242	1.21	3.55	4312	1739	176	344	0.972	0.599	0.263	1.33	4.27	0.61	Modern
jtvaughey	Old Cy	162	10	3	83	79	38	52	1,426.00	1522	923	689	75	843	560	0.263	1.66	4.35	4278	1811	309	344	0.952	0.512	0.300	1.88	5.83	0.47	Deadball
jtvaughey	Young Wakefield	162	0	0	75	87	42	62	1,430.33	1471	771	662	137	558	1032	0.258	1.42	4.17	4291	1568	172	313	0.971	0.463	0.277	1.54	4.85	0.86	Modern
just4me	Defense Test: Deadball	162	1	0	89	73	30	48	1,446.33	1652	823	697	75	366	294	0.280	1.40	4.34	4339	1942	207	453	0.968	0.549	0.300	1.54	5.12	0.47	Deadball
just4me	Defense Test: Modern	162	3	2	100	62	43	66	1,453.67	1498	680	555	109	300	821	0.258	1.24	3.44	4361	1697	164	350	0.974	0.617	0.276	1.35	4.21	0.67	Modern
just4me	TWISL - Deadball Pitchers	162	11	1	86	76	33	53	1,446.33	1761	1096	819	104	596	390	0.289	1.63	5.10	4339	1948	343	509	0.948	0.531	0.327	1.87	6.82	0.65	Deadball
just4me	TWISL - Modern Pitchers	162	1	1	102	60	44	65	1,448.33	1565	747	617	127	375	726	0.267	1.34	3.83	4345	1713	195	344	0.969	0.630	0.288	1.47	4.64	0.79	Modern
milest	Deadball Pitching & Bad Defense @ Target	162	1	0	27	135	12	26	1,408.67	2171	1732	1420	260	811	495	0.340	2.12	9.07	4226	1785	340	509	0.946	0.167	0.373	2.36	11.07	1.66	Deadball
milest	Modern Pitching & Bad Defense at Target	162	1	1	16	146	7	30	1,388.33	2358	2022	1697	249	1006	558	0.363	2.42	11.00	4165	1716	290	374	0.953	0.099	0.389	2.63	13.11	1.61	Modern
schwarze	Old: Full of Krapp & Duryea	162	8	5	103	59	49	59	1,463.67	1238	644	535	54	688	589	0.223	1.32	3.29	4391	1868	205	429	0.968	0.636	0.247	1.46	3.96	0.33	Deadball
schwarze	New: My Johnson Needs Orel	162	0	0	96	66	43	59	1,462.33	1254	715	603	136	595	942	0.225	1.26	3.71	4387	1694	167	378	0.973	0.593	0.245	1.38	4.40	0.84	Modern
skinndogg	TWISL DOGGS DEADBALLERS ARE ALL DEAD	162	0	0	75	87	41	52	1,455.33	1561	720	611	34	392	450	0.269	1.34	3.78	4366	1903	153	358	0.976	0.463	0.282	1.45	4.45	0.21	Deadball
skinndogg	Doggs Modern Day Hurlers	162	4	2	67	95	33	44	1,438.67	1503	821	733	155	512	894	0.263	1.40	4.59	4316	1650	118	295	0.981	0.414	0.273	1.48	5.14	0.97	Modern
teamhydro	Talking to Tesla	162	6	2	90	72	44	58	1,461.33	1447	677	559	31	478	507	0.251	1.32	3.44	4384	1833	192	395	0.970	0.556	0.272	1.45	4.17	0.19	Deadball
teamhydro	Driving a Tesla	162	2	2	94	68	49	56	1,452.67	1359	636	549	91	462	827	0.242	1.25	3.40	4358	1668	123	344	0.980	0.580	0.254	1.34	3.94	0.56	Modern

Quoting my personal highlight from the first post:

Showing how really close this was. Essentially, I think this makes it very clear, there is no value difference between deadball or modern pitchers once you account for errors and XBH/HR rates. The run allowance and W/L records the various pitching eras provide for the price are essentially identical.

The base salary seems to really account for these variances exceptionally well in terms of pricing actual sim value.

For myself, I prefer modern pitchers, as I believe it is easier to build offense/defense/ballpark around them as you have multiple ways to get their full value, where with deadball pitchers, to be get full value, you are limited to a very specific group of defenders which limits your offense/defense/ballpark options.

I've always liked using modern pitchers more, but assumed I was putting myself at a disadvantage for doing so. This is great information.

Wow, so for all the people who complain that dead ball pitchers break the game, it seems like when everything is factored in, the difference between deadball and modern pitchers are negligible.

Bump

Interesting stuff just4me, thanks for sharing. I always use modern pitchers in OLs, except the once or twice a year where I go with a Coors team and even then, I mix it up with a few modern pitchers and I have had a few of them even win the Cy Young at Coors.
From what I see in OLs I'm one of the very rare owners to do so, I'd say that 90% of starters I face are deadballers.

I never really understood that phobia of giving up a few more HRs by sticking to deadballers. My staffs give up more HRs than most still I have a pretty good winning % in OLs, around .580 and I also have a very good success ratio for making the playoffs and winning WS.

I hope this info encourages a few more owners to go with modern pitchers, just to see a little more diversity in OLs.

Bump for savoybg

This is cool. I wonder if it is possible to get the IF combined range factor vs OF combined range factor for each era of teams.

Posted by adsmith182 on 12/23/2022 4:07:00 PM (view original):
This is cool. I wonder if it is possible to get the IF combined range factor vs OF combined range factor for each era of teams.

I probably have those files downstairs still. No promises, but I’ll see if I can pull it up

Discussion thread has some stats that might be insightful

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=525362

bump

Have you tried running this at different salary caps? I'm curious what, if any, variation there is between higher caps and lower caps.