The data is taken from two OL teams that used Dodger Stadium. I took hits/ab for both the hitting and pitching staffs, split by their home/away performance. All combined, I had 11,308 home ABs and 11,944 away ABs.

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (HR LF/RF:-1/-1 1B:2 2B:-4 3B:-3) PF: 0.87

Home AVG/OAV: .2578
Away AVG/OAV: .2729

Using standard deviation, we can produce a bell curve range of objective strength for AVG/OAV, expressed as "confidence percentage". 2 stdevs gives us a 95% confidence of our range. 3 stdevs gives us 99.7% confidence.

2 Stdev Range for Home: .250-.266
2 Stdev Range for Away: .265-.281

3 Stdev Range for Home: .245-.270
3 Stdev Range for Away: .261-.285

Conclusion: Based on this data alone we can be confident that Dodger Stadium does NOT increase total hits. There is a roughly 93-94% chance that it decreases hits, a roughly 2-4% chance that it is neutral, and a roughly 2-4% chance that it provides a mild bump.

I am keeping in mind that my previous experiences with Dodger Stadium have been like this. I may add some of the Dodger teams currently in the WISC later to further refine the confidence range documented here.

If park factor doesn't determine AVG/OAV, it at least seems to describe it. I myself posted the original slides from the simbaseball presentation given in St Louis years ago. That post is no longer available, but the sticky thread created by Contrarian23 does a great job recreating it. There is an apparent contradiction in what we ought to expect from results, and the results we actually get.

thanks for this. definitely fits with what I've seen. here's 35 seasons of data for a Dodger Stadium team in a regressive league:

	Dodger Stadium	Away
2008	0.272	0.286
2007	0.293	0.303
2006	0.259	0.258
2005	0.239	0.268
2004	0.252	0.265
2003	0.261	0.278
2002	0.258	0.285
2001	0.265	0.271
2000	0.271	0.318
1999	0.283	0.293
1998	0.293	0.299
1997	0.281	0.299
1996	0.294	0.291
1995	0.263	0.294
1994	0.254	0.267
1993	0.273	0.273
1992	0.251	0.280
1991	0.238	0.264
1990	0.265	0.283
1989	0.274	0.280
1988	0.257	0.277
1987	0.240	0.258
1986	0.248	0.270
1985	0.277	0.291
1984	0.270	0.283
1983	0.263	0.252
1982	0.272	0.260
1981	0.249	0.261
1980	0.259	0.274
1979	0.254	0.285
1978	0.265	0.248
1977	0.271	0.269
1976	0.248	0.278
1975	0.251	0.259
1974	0.249	0.251
Total	0.263	0.276

Yep. This checks out with common sense, even if it's counter to those old slides.

Home/Away is less relevant than Home/Actual# unless you know the impact of the away stadiums

Average OL stadium right now (and over last three months) is a +1 1B factor. A number of teams use Dodger and Hilltop, if your league happened to have more of those amongst your regular opponents then you'd expect to have better AVG on road, similar with a progressive/regressive, depending on what stadiums are used/not used, and the schedule, it's quite possible the Dodger team plays a good chunk of games in AFC & Wrigley, which would also impact the away expectation.

First of all, Booger, it is great to see you here. Hope you and your family are well.

Dodger Stadium, in real life, changed somewhat over time.

There is a great analysis of Dodger Stadium by Tom Seaver as a commentator in one of the games of the 1977 World Series. Seaver talked about how Dodger Stadium went from a real pitcher's park to a more balanced one over time. And he also did analysis of the infield soil conditions for his college degree thesis (or maybe masters thesis, can't remember), and discusses that as well.

The games of that series are all on Youtube, and it will be one of the games played at Dodger Stadium. Can't recall which one.