The disastrous Kershaw expirement Topic

First, I apologize for the length of this post and appreciate all who read it to the end and provide their advice as I'm in a bit of a pickle.

While I'm a relatively new and inexperienced player, I've noticed the really successful teams frequently share common players/setups, whether it's a roster full of Whit Merrifields and Ketel Martes, or a 3-man rotation filled with deadball guys. But once in a while, I see winning/champion teams that ... do something different.

I've done the former with some success, but I really enjoy doing well employing the latter strategy, which I have to some extent using a modern 4-man rotation and some guys typically not found on other rosters (who doesn't love Travis Shaw, or Mule Haas, or David Eckstein?). But most recently, one of my more bold experiments has failed in brilliant fashion: Clayton Kershaw the closer.

I'm using the $6M version of Kershaw from 2020 when he made 10 starts and posted top notch numbers, including a 223 ERC+, 291 BB/9+, and a 159 WHIP+.

But as my closer through 31 games, Kershaw has posted this stat line:
9 games, 12.667 innings pitched, 14 earned runs/21 hits and 6 walks allowed, including a whopping 6 home runs. That's an ERA of 9.95, an OAV of .339 and a 2.13 whip.

Add all that up ... and my $6M closer has a record of 0-6 with 3 saves and 6 blown saves.

With 160 innings under his belt, I thought Kershaw would be a great back end closer who could throw not only 2 but an occasional 3 inning save if needed. I viewed his price tag as the equivalent of getting a top notch closer and set up man for one price ... but obviously ... that hasn't been the case.

So my question is two-fold: 1) Was this plan doomed to fail from the start because I was using an SP as a closer? I've seen lots of other guys in that role excel, including Verlander, Jake Northrop, etc., so I can't believe it's that. Plus, I had a lot of success using this approach in spring training games. I know that's only 10 games, but this has failed from the second game on when Kershaw blew a 3-run lead in the ninth for his first loss/blown save.

Question 2 is what do I do now? Because of the 10 percent premium on signing free agents, I've always avoided that route ... and try not to make a knee jerk reaction. But I can't stay with the status quo hoping it returns to the norm, can I? I'm 31 games in ... and despite Kershaw's disastrous start, I'm only 4 out of first, so I feel like this still isn't a lost cause.

Anyway....I'm tempted to throw Kershaw into the rotation to use some of his unused innings and maybe put a different starter into the closer's role for 10 games or so ... and maybe switching back.

Any input would be greatly appreciated.
7/6/2021 11:08 AM
the multi-inning bullpen ace can definitely work, you are getting very unlucky through not even 20% of the season. definitely don't waive him and eat the waiver wire penalty.

the problem here is you will never get near using the full IP allotment for someone with 157 innings using them only in save situations. since Kershaw is your best pitcher you should be using him in a way that allows you to get the full 157 innings + 10 percent, and that's going to require using him as a starter or as the back half of a tandem at times.

7/6/2021 11:23 AM
"the problem here is you will never get near using the full IP allotment for someone with 157 innings using them only in save situations. since Kershaw is your best pitcher you should be using him in a way that allows you to get the full 157 innings + 10 percent, and that's going to require using him as a starter or as the back half of a tandem at times."

I was worried about that as well ... which is why I don't have the "use closer in save situations only" clicked. However, despite that, Kershaw has never appeared in a non-save situation. I also set his "inning available" to the 7th, hoping for the occasional 3-inning save. He appeared once in the 7th ... got the two outs to close out the inning ... and promptly allowed 3 homers in the 8th to lose the game ... which, not so coincidentally, was the game that prompted me to write this post.
7/6/2021 11:44 AM
I honestly never even set up a closer role. I put all my bullpen as Setup A and let the sim pull the best available at every spot. If I have pitchers I’d prefer not to pitch until later innings, I’ll just adjust the innings they’re available to come in.

I almost primarily use starters in relief roles (guys with 25-70 innings but have high ip/g
7/6/2021 11:45 AM
There might be something going on with modern day SP's being used out of the bullpen. I am seeing this issue with two stud pitchers.

In a 140M theme, I am using the $11+ million 1999 Pedro as a RP and he is getting crushed. He currently has a 6.03 ERA playing every game in a neutral park (all teams are playing in WhatifSports Park). Pitching almost entirely at 100%, he gave up 3+ runs in eight of his first twelve appearances (avg innings pitched was 2.2 innings per appearance). He's had multiple 5-runs-in-less-than 2-IPs blowups. In fact, his current 6.03 ERA is the lowest at any point in the season.

In the same 140M theme (different team), I tried using 2014 Clayton Kershaw as a RP. Just like Pedro, he was pitching as bad as a 200K mop-up pitcher. In his first 14 relief appearances, he gave up 41 runs in 29.2 IPs, with only 2 "clean" zero-run games. His ERA hit 10.31. I finally moved him into the starting rotation. Since then, he's pitched 49 IPs in 7 starts, allowing a respectable 20 runs.
7/6/2021 12:12 PM
So I’m using the same strat you are but in the 90M WISC league.

I have 2020 Kershaw as my Setup A, and I have him throwing 45 TPC, 50 MPC. He could probably throw more, but my goal is to have him available to pitch every other game.

Anyways, thru his first 15 appearances, he threw 20.67 IPs (I have another Setup A with a lower OAV, so that dude comes in beforehand) with a 1.31 ERA and 0.68 WHIP.

But he’s got blown up a little since then as he currently sits at 35 appearances, 65 IP, 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, 7 of 10 in Saves and a 6-4 W/L.

2020 Zach Plesac in the same role as a starter going (hopefully) 3 strong innings out the pen is going 5-2 W/L, 6 out of 7 Save opportunities, 2.28 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 71 innings from 32 appearances.

Don't go to waivers yet, or at all, it’ll all even out.
7/6/2021 1:18 PM
I frequently use modern pitchers in that way. Whether it’s the ‘16 Kershaw, the ‘20 Kershaw, the ‘20 Plesac, ‘18 deGrom, ‘02 Pedro... don’t set them as “Closer”. The sim has pre-defined roles for the different settings. The “Closer” setting will only come in for save settings. The check box that governs that setting description only toggles whether they’ll Lao be allowed to come in for tie games or not. To get the most out of Kershaw set him as a Setup, Long, or set your entire bullpen to LH/RH Specialist. Set his PC around 45-55 with a Pull 1 and available in the 6th and he should pitch in 80-95 games and close out most of them.
7/6/2021 2:27 PM
I think something underlying all of these posts but not said explicitly is that it doesn't actually matter *which* innings he pitches. The goal is to get all of his innings, whether that's in either end of a tandem, or at the end of the game. If he's one of your best pitchers, find a place where he can help you the most, or move him around to ensure it.
7/8/2021 2:39 PM
Is it possible there is some kind of penalty built in for a SP coming in for a relief appearance? I haven’t done the research but I’d imagine IRL, guys who only start and come in for a relief appearance (say, in the playoffs) perform a bit worse than they normally do because that goes against their normal routine and preparation.
7/8/2021 4:44 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 7/8/2021 4:44:00 PM (view original):
Is it possible there is some kind of penalty built in for a SP coming in for a relief appearance? I haven’t done the research but I’d imagine IRL, guys who only start and come in for a relief appearance (say, in the playoffs) perform a bit worse than they normally do because that goes against their normal routine and preparation.
"We have no idea what you're talking about ?!"

- - Word Series pen heroes Madison Bumgarner and Randy Johnson.
7/8/2021 5:05 PM
Taking Just4Me's advice, I slotted Kershaw into a Setup A role (along with a couple other guys) ... leaving the closer's role vacant. Since then, Kershaw has been MUCH better ... which means in 5 innings pitched over 3 games ... he's "only" allowed 2 solo homers, dropping his ERA to "just" 7.03. For the record ... he's given up the third most homers in the league with 10 ... in just a tick over 20 innings pitched.

As for the "penalty" theory for sps used as relievers, if it's in the code, it came in when the minor leaguers went out. It wasn't that long ago where I league I was had a team featuring Jake Nothrop as its closer. He gave up his first earned run with something like 20 games left in the season and finished the season allowing just 3 earned runs in 60 some odd innings ... so yeah, no penalty there for sure. Coincidentally, in another league, I'm having success using the aforementioned Randy Johnson as my closer ... although I admit, not as much success as I've had with him in previous seasons as a setup guy ... which may validate the introduction of an sp penalty.
7/8/2021 7:16 PM
Many of us have used low inning SP in relief with great success for many years, so I don't think there's a penalty. The '20 Kershaw gives up some HR, some are likely falling as hits of some kind. He may be in a slump, some may have less than stellar gloves behind him. Keep sending him out there, he'll be fine...even the '16 Kershaw has been known to give up something from time to time. The hitters win some battles, their stats are very influential on the outcome of the plate appearance in the decision tree.
7/8/2021 7:56 PM
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"I didn't start playing here all those years ago to master the "art" of beating the WIS system/algorithum and win points/accumulate credits, etc!!!"

I concur with this. Certainly no disrespect to those that do this, but it seems those that succeed are those who keep copius amounts of data in spreadsheets and plot which players function best at which caps and in which situations. I've never had any desire to do that. I've certainly studied the forums and learned strategies from successful users on here, but I want this to be fun. I don't want to spend hours a day charting results so I can dominate my next league.
7/8/2021 11:01 PM
The disastrous Kershaw expirement Topic

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