Posted by trojan4309 on 12/10/2021 12:38:00 PM (view original):
The third tier should be removed or the time allotted to make an initial NT should be 12 seasons in my opinion. Most of the time third-tier programs are either all sim-signed rosters or rosters with no serviceable players. From examining many examples, the general progression for these (often D+, C- power 6) teams is:
Season 1: Wash, can't recruit in RS1
Season 2-4: Get your own players (although can't compete for power 6 caliber players due to low prestige)
Season 5-7: Make a PI, raise prestige, get better players
Season 8-11: Compete for NT
Of course, there are some coaches that have been able to do it within 7 seasons, but rebuilding a lower prestige power 6 team is one of the harder things to do in HD. The tier 3 logic will lead to the bottom half of power conferences being largely sim-controlled. Just my thoughts.
"Season 2-4: get your own players (although can't compete for power 6 caliber players due to low prestige)"
a decent amount of those tier 3 jobs shouldn't get THAT low in prestige. Some of them are really elite jobs. The fact that Texas (or even Tech and A&M) are tier 3 jobs really surprises me. They can be turned around rather quickly. But yes there are some jobs that would be difficult to rebuild in the time window that's proposed.
in theory, the Tier 3 jobs should be noticeably easier to maintain than the Tier 1 jobs. And the tier 1 jobs should be a lot more difficult to sustain. If I had to add my opinion, I feel they're a little too close together. But I don't have the data to prove which direction I would feel needs adjusted.
Firing everybody and their mama isn't a great idea. So I'd probably side with you and say to soften tier 3 some. One thing that wasn't considered when this firing idea came about (which IS good for the game), most of the data that CS was looking at was probably from 2015 to 2020. Maybe not back that far even. But when Adam came aboard, adjustments were made that allowed coaches to blink and they'd be able to qualify for D1. That pushed a lot more coaches to the highest division, and filled up basically all of the power 6 conferences. Now it is a longer process to rebuild the worst of the power 6 schools. And it's likely the data that was used previously to create the firing criteria, doesn't really coincide with current D1 populations
In the end, they'll figure it out. Maybe there needs to be an adjustment as population increase/decrease over time.
A lot goes into this!