Posted by dahsdebater on 10/13/2021 6:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tangplay on 10/13/2021 2:57:00 PM (view original):
He's a great coach, but anyone who doesn't play the analytics game is at a major disadvantage in today's NFL.
Are they, though?
The Bill Belichick Patriots like to go for it on 4th down, but Bill Belichick is openly disdainful of analytics. He uses his gut, not math, to decide when to be aggressive. Likewise Andy Reid. Those are the most successful coaches active in the NFL right now. There are other teams with analytically-minded coaches and front offices. So far, few of them have won titles. Gary Kubiak won with the Broncos. I suppose you could argue that the Eagles are more interested in analytics than most franchises, so maybe that's one other example. The Ravens use a ton of analytics, have a very talented team, and haven't won. Likewise the Browns. And the Bill O'Brien Texans (not so talented now, but they were solid for a while while he was coaching). Bruce Arians notoriously hates modern analytics. He's the defending Super Bowl champion head coach.
I'm not convinced that reality bears out your statement at all. Analytics made a huge visible impact in baseball and basketball. So far, I haven't seen any comparable mark in the NFL.
You're correct that analytics are less prevalent in football right now. But that's slowly changing, and coaches that embrace it now (like Staley, Harbaugh, and Stefanski) are at an advantage. Of course it's not the only thing that matters - Belichick and Reid are great coaches anyway, they would just be better if they went for more 4th downs and 2 point conversions.
But Billy Beane never won a ring in Oakland, and he was employing sabermetrics to gain a way bigger edge than NFL teams who are more analytically inclined.
Throw the ball more, running backs don't matter, go for more 4th downs and 2 point conversions, etc. Coaches and organizations who employ these mindsets and strategies will have an edge until the league catches up.