Posted by besterateam on 5/31/2022 11:20:00 PM (view original):
1098 against real competition will never compete…

Just cause you haven’t done it doesn’t mean it’s not possible

And there’s a reason nobody does it…lol

I’d put $1000 if you have less than 1100 innings tho will NOT make the playoffs…I’d wager $100 that doc doesn’t win 70 games either

There’s a lot of interesting chatter here, but the strategy thread is getting far less love than usual.

Posted by besterateam on 5/31/2022 10:19:00 PM (view original):
You’re gonna be screwed by game 10…any team below 1300 with a DH probably won’t do too well imo…anything under 1250….you’re in for a long one Doc..wel check back here later…

we’ve gone 3 straight 3-3 over here. Mediocrity at its best

This seems like a gross generalization. I'm by no means a top owner, but I feel like a top owner could easily navigate a $70M league with less than 1,200 innings. It'll take some serious micromanagement, but I don't see why it can't be done. I drafted 1320 myself, but that's only because I drafted a lot of RP with low total innings.

Posted by just4me on 5/31/2022 6:58:00 PM (view original):
Gosh, I don’t even consider 1200 IP flirting with danger at $80m.

Even in Coors, up to $90m 1040 IP is all you’ll need if everything goes right. So, I’d consider 160 buffer IP to be a safeguard against playing with fire or risking a fatigue spiral. Given the DH and HR prone era, I targeted a few extra to play it safe (1250), but as long as there’s not a bunch of extra inning games or PC/appearance mismanagement, someone in this league could easily get by with 1075-1100 IP no problem.

For those that are used to managing fatigue with those IP levels it gets even easier and there’s a good number of ways to mitigate death spirals and massive fatigue impacts. And a quick way out if you do find yourself in one.

I think I’ll try this with a bunch of $30k/IP Randy Johnson’s at $100 mil. I know can get 300 innings out of each one, but may need help after that if you’re willing.

Posted by d_rock97 on 6/1/2022 1:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 5/31/2022 6:58:00 PM (view original):
Gosh, I don’t even consider 1200 IP flirting with danger at $80m.

Even in Coors, up to $90m 1040 IP is all you’ll need if everything goes right. So, I’d consider 160 buffer IP to be a safeguard against playing with fire or risking a fatigue spiral. Given the DH and HR prone era, I targeted a few extra to play it safe (1250), but as long as there’s not a bunch of extra inning games or PC/appearance mismanagement, someone in this league could easily get by with 1075-1100 IP no problem.

For those that are used to managing fatigue with those IP levels it gets even easier and there’s a good number of ways to mitigate death spirals and massive fatigue impacts. And a quick way out if you do find yourself in one.

I think I’ll try this with a bunch of $30k/IP Randy Johnson’s at $100 mil. I know can get 300 innings out of each one, but may need help after that if you’re willing.

Absolutely...

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/1/2022 1:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by besterateam on 5/31/2022 10:19:00 PM (view original):
You’re gonna be screwed by game 10…any team below 1300 with a DH probably won’t do too well imo…anything under 1250….you’re in for a long one Doc..wel check back here later…

we’ve gone 3 straight 3-3 over here. Mediocrity at its best

This seems like a gross generalization. I'm by no means a top owner, but I feel like a top owner could easily navigate a $70M league with less than 1,200 innings. It'll take some serious micromanagement, but I don't see why it can't be done. I drafted 1320 myself, but that's only because I drafted a lot of RP with low total innings.

I think it depends on what you mean by "navigate." If you gave me 1175 IP in a 70m, I think there's a chance I would get through the season without a death spiral, but it would require several mop-up games and I'd have to avoid in-game injuries which would be a possibility at all times since my whole staff would be well under 100%. It would also likely require messing with pitching staff settings after every single game. And for what? What big advantage would I be gaining by doing this, particularly in the WISC where overall regular season record is by far the most important thing?

I made this point earlier and was ignored, but the top owners in the WISC, to my knowledge, have never gone super low on innings. I've certainly never seen brianjw or ozomatli do it, and while his time was before I played the WISC, based on WaitNSee's write-ups, he often drafted quite a bit more innings than I'd recommend. And he was so dominant he quit the game because it was too easy for him.

I certainly haven't solved the game, or even come close to doing so, and I'll all for people trying out new strategies and seeing if they'll work. I think it's great to see creativity and not cookie-cutter copying of other people's rosters. But the super-light IP strategy is not a strategy I've seen give anyone a big edge, and I think the burden of proof is on the people advocating for it to show that it's actually providing an edge over drafting a more conventional number of innings. Especially given that going super-light on IP can lead to 120+ losses with some bad luck, I'd like to see evidence of it leading to 120+ wins before I even consider it as a viable strategy.

Yes I think the goal is drafting the "correct" amount of IP.

If Elbirdo was correct, I drafted pitches, not innings.

If I can throw less pitches per PA, then I need to draft less innings. Theoretically...most of my guys are fairly high K/9(and low BB/9) working against some high whiff hitters...not a high pct strategy, but if it works...

His pitch allocation thread

One other minor point, but I think worth mentioning. I avoided 2020 pitchers other than Strahm, who I've used a bunch, and Gott, one of my mops. The 2020 HR/9 numbers are skewed and unreliable, IMO.

Why should I be conservative here? Where will that get me? If I go down in flames, so be it. I think I need to be more aggressive here, not less...I tried to draft better pitching than I thought I'd face, quality over quantity. Is it thin? Hell yeah it is...

A few years back I drafted similarly in the Expansion theme, came within a game of an LCS birth. That would have put me in the Cage...I finished 25th.

People used to tell me the same thing when I first started developing the fatigue strategy. It wasn’t until I posted the thread “How to Win With 800 IP” and Grizzly took off with it that people took it serious.

I still have my tickets to admin when I was going through my first tests around that and telling them it could be exploited to a dominating effect and it took two seasons of data and me steam rolling a TOC before they understood and started brainstorming ideas to curtail that strategy.

This is not that, but is built on a much better understanding of the fatigue model than we used to have (I’ve got three separate threads around the different types of pitching fatigue in the main forum, plus elbirdo’s invaluable PC allocation thread). Understanding how fatigue works on each aspect and how to minimize the impacts of fatigue when it is in play allows for much more efficient IP drafting.

That’s where this comes together, and if I were all about trying to win, I’d be pushing the extreme in every one of these leagues: go big or go home. My WISC teams (almost) always mirror whatever strategy du jour I’m playing with or testing around.

But, along these lines, and as a result of these conversations, I’ve entered two teams into what should be competitive leagues. One with 1,044 IP in a $60m OL. The other with 1,101 IP in a $90m TOC advantage league. Neither team has a mopup and both play in hitters parks. I plan to use IP stretching and fatigue mitigation strategies simultaneously.

There’s much discussed value around stretching pitchers in the main forum (including samples of these low IP teams winning 110-120 games, a CL (granted that one only won 87 but dominated the playoffs). If you can draft the equivalent of $40k/IP for $30k/IP, that allows you to draft a much better offense to go along with similar quality pitching.

But I also am not one who adjusts things game to game. I’m a set it and forget it manager. I often go 2-3 weeks without looking at the managers office for any given team (though I do look at the play-by-plays after every game).

Man I can't believe I lost FOUR extra inning games in one freaking cycle - and 3 of them my team blew a 9th-inning lead. Wow!! I want to believe that those type of things even out over the 162 games (and my head says they probably do), but right now I'm just ticked off!

1901 Davy Jones with a .674 OPS and 64 PA has already won me two games. One as a pinch-runner with winning run on a single and now with an extra-inning homer.