Posted by Fregoe on 9/13/2022 1:28:00 PM (view original):

Team Year Player Fav Dog Winner winning team Coppin St 188 Glenn Miligan 62 38 Dog Coppin Drake 168 Jan Threlkeld 57 43 Dog Missouri Wyoming 169 Thomas Mathis 74 26 Dog Air Force Miss V St 134 Jason Morejon 63 37 Dog Miss V St Coppin St 189 Shawn Smith 49 30 Dog Morgan St Coppin St 189 Jay Barrett 58 42 Dog Coppin St Miss V St 135 Jason Morejon 63 37 Dog Miss St Clemson 132 Richard Lebel 74 26 Fav Indiana Boise St 129 Douglas Vogel 69 31 Fav Gonzaga Wyoming 170 Tim Ward 75 25 Fav Gonzaga Wyoming 170 JR Nagata 69 31 Fav Iowa St Lamar 135 Fred McCullough 76 24 Fav Lamar Drake 170 Ahmad Whitehill 71 29 Fav Drake Drake 170 Zach Parks 55 23 Fav Illinois Drake 170 Roy Jones 48 17 Underdog ND Clemson Craig Bryant 51 49 Fav Vandy

Wow, its almost as if its nothing but a coin flip and the odds don't matter......

Posted by ElijahMikael on 7/15/2022 2:25:00 AM (view original):
Was in four rolls this season in D1 Knight. The underdog won all four. Two of them were essentially 70-30 odds (68-32 and 69-31). The other was 59-41 and the fourth was a three team roll with the lowest percentage team winning.

I have had a very similar experience in the current season in D1 Knight. The more I see, and the more I read, the more random this all seems. I won a lot more recruiting battles at UL-Monroe than I have at Ole Miss or Notre Dame. I've been told prestige and attention points are all that matter, then I read that all offers are magnified after you promise minutes. A big deal is made of recruit preferences but i've won more on bad matches than on good ones.

Really ready to be done with this. Love game planning and seeing players improve over their careers, but recruiting is a huge part of the game and it makes less sense to me every season I have played. Throwing my hands up at this point.

Just lost a 74/26 roll. Second season in a row I lost a 70+ odd to a conference rival with a lower prestige. Getting very frustrated with this system as is.

Thankfully I'm out of credits after this season so I can take a break.

Team	Year	Player	Fav	Dog	Winner	winning team
Coppin St	188	Glenn Miligan	62	38	Dog	Coppin
Drake	168	Jan Threlkeld	57	43	Dog	Missouri
Wyoming	169	Thomas Mathis	74	26	Dog	Air Force
Miss V St	134	Jason Morejon	63	37	Dog	Miss V St
Coppin St	189	Shawn Smith	49	30	Dog	Morgan St
Coppin St	189	Jay Barrett	58	42	Dog	Coppin St
Miss V St	135	Jason Morejon	63	37	Dog	Miss St
Clemson	132	Richard Lebel	74	26	Fav	Indiana
Boise St	129	Douglas Vogel	69	31	Fav	Gonzaga
Wyoming	170	Tim Ward	75	25	Fav	Gonzaga
Wyoming	170	JR Nagata	69	31	Fav	Iowa St
Lamar	135	Fred McCullough	76	24	Fav	Lamar
Drake	170	Ahmad Whitehill	71	29	Fav	Drake
Drake	170	Zach Parks	55	23	Fav	Illinois
Drake	170	Roy Jones	48	17	Underdog	ND
Clemson		Craig Bryant	51	49	Fav	Vandy
Drake	170	Ruben Mullins	38	12	Fav	Missouri	5 WAY ROLL
Miss V St	135	Daniel Puckett	66	34	Fav	Alcorn st
Miss V St	135	eric Hemphill	72	27	fav	Drake
Coppin St	191	j Cambell	57	23	fav	Pitt	3 Way
Miss Valley St	135	Brandon Randolph	53	47	Undedog	G Tech
Miss Valley St	135	Bryant Wetzstein	74	26	underdog	Tenn Martin
Miss Valley St	135	John Park	59	20	Fav	Aub
Prarie View	134	James Phillips	53	47	Underdog	Florida St
Coppin St	192	Michael Larose	68	32	Underdog	Coppin St
Coppin St	192	Thad Evans	72	28	Underdog	Clev St
Drake	172	William Chilton	53	18	Fav	Hou	3 way
Clemson	134	Bryan Lacy	57	43	Underdog	Clemson
Clemson	134	Michael Williams	51	19	undergod	Clemson	3 way
Prarie View	135	Hults	72	28	underdog	Houston
Miss V State	136	Tyler Smith	55	45	underdog	Ark Pine B

I might have missed a few rolls while traveling but here is the updated list for my teams

Posted by Fregoe on 11/14/2022 8:49:00 AM (view original):
I might have missed a few rolls while traveling but here is the updated list for my teams

this is the concern... those few rolls blow up the whole data set.

i personally have felt approximately 0 correlation between my rolls and my odds. granted, i don't pay much attention or care that much. but i tend to glean a lot of information from observation of small sample sizes of these sort of events without much effort, in a way that sometimes exceeds what i'd even consider possible given random chance? hence my quick success in this game, not that different than looking at box scores. i get confirmation bias and all those things, but the robot half of my brain mostly plows through all that unphased. plus my bias was that y'all were suffering from those effects and the rolls were legit.

what we need to do is to get like 20 of the most reliable coaches to track these odds religiously to reach a robust conclusion...

"those few rolls blow up the whole data set"
Its possible, but for me and what I am trying to learn it's still better than nothing. I would wager a small bet that there were no rolls though. When I am traveling during recruiting I am way more conservative and tend to go after bench/roll players to avoid battles.

It would be cool to get more people to track it(and share it) to compile more data. Does Prestige matter? are there factors that help in rolls that we (I) don't know about?

Posted by Fregoe on 11/15/2022 7:42:00 AM (view original):
"those few rolls blow up the whole data set"
Its possible, but for me and what I am trying to learn it's still better than nothing. I would wager a small bet that there were no rolls though. When I am traveling during recruiting I am way more conservative and tend to go after bench/roll players to avoid battles.

It would be cool to get more people to track it(and share it) to compile more data. Does Prestige matter? are there factors that help in rolls that we (I) don't know about?

prestige matters but it is factored into rolls, so there should be no effect after its listed. the roll odds are supposed to be all in. about 10% per partial grade is the prestige advantage.

Posted by gillispie on 11/14/2022 12:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Fregoe on 11/14/2022 8:49:00 AM (view original):
I might have missed a few rolls while traveling but here is the updated list for my teams

this is the concern... those few rolls blow up the whole data set.

i personally have felt approximately 0 correlation between my rolls and my odds. granted, i don't pay much attention or care that much. but i tend to glean a lot of information from observation of small sample sizes of these sort of events without much effort, in a way that sometimes exceeds what i'd even consider possible given random chance? hence my quick success in this game, not that different than looking at box scores. i get confirmation bias and all those things, but the robot half of my brain mostly plows through all that unphased. plus my bias was that y'all were suffering from those effects and the rolls were legit.

what we need to do is to get like 20 of the most reliable coaches to track these odds religiously to reach a robust conclusion...

sign me up for this - i'd happily start submitting all of my battles each recruiting season. only way we verify ourselves

as of now. 33 rolls Underdog has won 18 of them. My game plan going forward is to get to and stay at HIGH on as many top recruit's as possible. the numbers we are given have to be lies.

It’s going to be such a small sample size tho. And would take years to get a fair reading on it. Not sure when you started. But 18 of 33 isn’t THAT far off base for the underdog. 16 of 33 would be fair to the underdog as that would be below 50 percent. That’s only 2 rolls difference.

But how many rolls happen in a single recruiting cycle? Most all of the top 100. Many many beyond that. There might be 150 200 rolls each season? I don’t know. And that’s only one world for one season. I bet over the course of 500 rolls, just a couple of seasons, it’s likely on par with where it should be. It’s hard to just go by ONE coach because of swings that may happen over the long haul

I have been playing this game since it was created. I just started tracking rolls recently. I started tracking them because in my experience the underdog was winning at a higher rate than the % would suggest make sense.

Posted by Fregoe on 12/2/2022 1:59:00 PM (view original):
I have been playing this game since it was created. I just started tracking rolls recently. I started tracking them because in my experience the underdog was winning at a higher rate than the % would suggest make sense.

I know that I responded to you, but I wasn’t necessarily saying you’re wrong or anything. I was just talking out loud in general. I just meant that it’s a big pool to track. Even if one tracked all their career rolls, it’s likely a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of rolls that the site would put out during that same stretch

For the second year in a row I just lost to a lower prestige school while I had a 73/27 advantage.

Isolating to what looks like heads up battles, the favorite "should" have won 15, while they actually won 9. I'd like to see a bigger sample size.

Team	Year	Player	Fav	Dog	Winner	winning team
Coppin St	188	Glenn Miligan	62	38	Dog	Coppin
Drake	168	Jan Threlkeld	57	43	Dog	Missouri
Wyoming	169	Thomas Mathis	74	26	Dog	Air Force
Miss V St	134	Jason Morejon	63	37	Dog	Miss V St
Coppin St	189	Jay Barrett	58	42	Dog	Coppin St
Miss V St	135	Jason Morejon	63	37	Dog	Miss St
Clemson	132	Richard Lebel	74	26	Fav	Indiana
Boise St	129	Douglas Vogel	69	31	Fav	Gonzaga
Wyoming	170	Tim Ward	75	25	Fav	Gonzaga
Wyoming	170	JR Nagata	69	31	Fav	Iowa St
Lamar	135	Fred McCullough	76	24	Fav	Lamar
Drake	170	Ahmad Whitehill	71	29	Fav	Drake
Clemson		Craig Bryant	51	49	Fav	Vandy
Miss V St	135	Daniel Puckett	66	34	Fav	Alcorn st
Miss V St	135	eric Hemphill	72	27	Fav	Drake
Miss Valley St	135	Brandon Randolph	53	47	Dog	G Tech
Miss Valley St	135	Bryant Wetzstein	74	26	Dog	Tenn Martin
Prarie View	134	James Phillips	53	47	Dog	Florida St
Coppin St	192	Michael Larose	68	32	Dog	Coppin St
Coppin St	192	Thad Evans	72	28	Dog	Clev St
Clemson	134	Bryan Lacy	57	43	Dog	Clemson
Prarie View	135	Hults	72	28	Dog	Houston
Miss V State	136	Tyler Smith	55	45	Dog	Ark Pine B
Sum			15.04	7.95