Both Bryant and Yost should process by 12:45am-1am EST tonight.

Posted by ebzimny01 on 8/17/2023 10:02:00 AM (view original):
GUESS has relative values today, but GUESS isn't using relative values to rank all positions together, which is why we would see certain positions dominate rankings.

For letter grades by formation, it is my first attempt at it. I'm not married to it. It is not simple to get this right. Might not even be possible to get it right. Some background...

I fill out a formation by picking top rated players for each position role rating. So one thing you will notice is that a team who doesn't have enough players to fill a certain position will have a lower letter grade, likely a C/D/F grade (e.g. if you only have 2 WR's = poor letter grade for Shotgun).

For the actual calculation, my concept is similar to how GUESS does it but not identical. Each formation has a total of 22 "points" to distribute across the 11 positions. I won't go into the full detail for every formation, but here is the general concept using Pro Set as an example.

Pro Set Running - RB's would be weighted the highest
QB - take best QB Run role rating
RB1 - take the best overall RB role rating
RB2 - take the next best RB with highest FB role rating
WR1 - take best WR rating
WR2 - take next best WR rating
TE - take the best TE Blocking role rating
OL - take the top 5 OL Run role rating

SUM the weighted ratings and then calculate relative value against all other schools for Pro Set Running.

Pro Set Passing - QB would be weighted the highest
QB - take the best QB passing role rating
RB1 - take the best RB possession role rating
RB2 - take the next best RB possession role rating
WR1 - take the best WR possession role rating
WR2 - take the next best WR possession role rating
TE - take the best TE possession role rating
OL - take the top 5 OL Pass role ratings

SUM the weighted ratings and then calculate relative value against all other schools for Pro Set Passing.

That seems about as straightforward as it can be. It seems logical and theoretically accurate.

How difficult would it be to roll in FIQ into the equations?

BRYANT and YOST did not run yet. I made a change to my workflow and believe I know the problem. Will run again and post here when updated.

Regarding rolling in Formation IQ, it would be doable. I could pull the team averages (faster because I could grab at team level). Or I could pull for each player selected to fill the top 11 positions. This would extend the time to grab all data because Formation data is on another page that my tool would have to load, scrape, and store in DB.I don't know how I would weight formation IQ either.

BRYANT 197 should be ready. YOST 152 should be done in 10-15 minutes (~9am EST).

Posted by ebzimny01 on 8/18/2023 8:18:00 AM (view original):
BRYANT and YOST did not run yet. I made a change to my workflow and believe I know the problem. Will run again and post here when updated.

Regarding rolling in Formation IQ, it would be doable. I could pull the team averages (faster because I could grab at team level). Or I could pull for each player selected to fill the top 11 positions. This would extend the time to grab all data because Formation data is on another page that my tool would have to load, scrape, and store in DB.I don't know how I would weight formation IQ either.

Regarding FIQ and how to weight it.....I think that is a critical component that all coaches seem to dink around with. In D3 it seems less weight, and at D1A, it seems to count much more.

I'm thinking something along the lines of:
1. Use the team average as you suggested
2. Figure out the "relative scoring" like you do for positions
3. Establish a "modifier" for each relative score category
4. Apply modifier.

I suggest categories being A-F (grades) and the modifiers being something like:
A= 1.10
B= 1.06
C= 1.00
D= 0
F= 0.90

Great work and the site looks great. Thank you.

looks good.

Maybe this should be pinned on the front page if it isn't already?

This is awesome. Thanks for making this.

How do we get it pinned?

Maybe try sending in a ticket to get their attention, it's pretty clear that they don't have the manpower to regularly interact with the forums.

I've added the link to Ed's site on the GUESS site. Hopefully anyone that uses GUESS but doesn't frequent the forums will check it out.

Posted by ebzimny01 on 8/14/2023 11:52:00 PM (view original):
Coaches, I'm happy to share the website link: https://www.thenextguess.com/

Please give it a try and see how it works for you.

A few additional comments:

1. I think that you will find the team rankings mostly mirror GUESS. If you see something that looks completely out of touch please let me know.
2. I've made a cursory attempt to make the site work reasonably ok on mobile phone screen sizes, but haven't tested extensively. You will have to zoom and/or pan/scroll to view all data. Let me know if something seems completely broken.
3. I took a shot at Team level offensive and defensive grades for run and pass. You will see these on each team's individual page. My "enhancement" is to break down the grades by formation. At the simplest level, I fill out the roster by taking the top players at each position for each formation based on the number of positions required. I try to pick players based on the positional role ratings that make sense for run vs. pass. I then calculate an overall team rating for that formation which is then normalized against all other teams in the division. That normalized score is used for the grade. Similar to GUESS, it only counts the "starters". It does not measure the value of any backup players. Something I may choose to add later. It also doesn't factor in formation ratings as I wasn't sure how to best factor that in. I can't claim my approach to team grades is any better than what GUESS currently has. It might be way worse. Will be interested to hear your feedback.

Please continue to thank Bob for the amazing work he has done with GUESS over the years. I hope The Next Guess can continue carrying the torch.

Awesome, thank you!

it is VERY WELL done and hopefully gets more people playing interested whatever

I do know my A+ QB A+ WR two A rbs just wracked up 13 points against at best a C defense

the scoring system i am sure is fine - just had some games like today recently where mediocre teams / units totally perform in
a way that does not match the numbers and abilities - my qb was one of better ever had at D3 and I have had a couple and he did little

some of the results / stats are completely baffling to me as though the ratings do not match the results

Posted by ebzimny01 on 8/14/2023 11:52:00 PM (view original):
Coaches, I'm happy to share the website link: https://www.thenextguess.com/

Please give it a try and see how it works for you.

A few additional comments:

1. I think that you will find the team rankings mostly mirror GUESS. If you see something that looks completely out of touch please let me know.
2. I've made a cursory attempt to make the site work reasonably ok on mobile phone screen sizes, but haven't tested extensively. You will have to zoom and/or pan/scroll to view all data. Let me know if something seems completely broken.
3. I took a shot at Team level offensive and defensive grades for run and pass. You will see these on each team's individual page. My "enhancement" is to break down the grades by formation. At the simplest level, I fill out the roster by taking the top players at each position for each formation based on the number of positions required. I try to pick players based on the positional role ratings that make sense for run vs. pass. I then calculate an overall team rating for that formation which is then normalized against all other teams in the division. That normalized score is used for the grade. Similar to GUESS, it only counts the "starters". It does not measure the value of any backup players. Something I may choose to add later. It also doesn't factor in formation ratings as I wasn't sure how to best factor that in. I can't claim my approach to team grades is any better than what GUESS currently has. It might be way worse. Will be interested to hear your feedback.

Please continue to thank Bob for the amazing work he has done with GUESS over the years. I hope The Next Guess can continue carrying the torch.

Can we get a headshot of Bob Hazelwood for the new site's landing page...

Couple of questions ...

What is the difference between Relative Value and Overall Rating, for both of which a rank seems to be given?

What is the difference between Recruit Relative Value and Recruit Rating, again, for both of which there appears to be a rank given?

Thank you.