Scouting a pitcher with great (80+) control, VLH, VRH, but weak pitches (70, 60, 50, 50). I've looked around a few leagues but haven't been able to find a comp of this guy. Anyone got a comp so I can sort of get an idea of what to expect? Thank you in advance.
10/7/2023 10:40 AM
I don't have a specific player in mind, but my belief is that pitchers are a composite of their ratings. Great ratings balance out the lesser ones and vice versa. So it depends on just how great the Control/L/R ratings are.
My immediate thought was that this is what great OLD pitchers look like. Age 38, 39, their Pitch ratings drop off much faster than their splits do. Maybe find one of those for a comp.

10/7/2023 12:08 PM
Depends on how much above 80 that + means. Not sure what your guy's velocity looks like; but all the comps below have velocity above 80 as well which I'm sure helps too. GB/FB varies with the three.
Jim Fien
Fausto Cruz
Charles Loewer

Hope these help! Seems above average starter, just be careful as he ages; with those lower pitch qualities, as his splits lower he'll regress.
10/7/2023 10:36 PM
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Ty for all the responses. I bowed out bidding on him due to price but I'm gonna keep an eye on him for future reference.
10/9/2023 11:03 AM
What would you all project for a righty pitcher international prospect with these ratings:

Sta 82
Dur 27
Cntrl 87
vLH 82
vRH 75
Velo 83
GB 79
P1 61
P2 61
P3 59
P4 32
10/9/2023 11:38 AM
Posted by LoboOne04 on 10/9/2023 11:38:00 AM (view original):
What would you all project for a righty pitcher international prospect with these ratings:

Sta 82
Dur 27
Cntrl 87
vLH 82
vRH 75
Velo 83
GB 79
P1 61
P2 61
P3 59
P4 32
With his best pitch being a 61, I'd be more concerned that he doesn't fully develop and even reach 58; or hope that your projections are off and it's actually higher.

But I share with you Lyle Whitehill, and Yovani Parraz. Both of whom who had P1 closer to 70.Have some other somewhat decent comps but they are all aged 38/39, so you can imagine what kind of years they put up - post prime years.
10/9/2023 1:52 PM
Posted by LoboOne04 on 10/9/2023 11:38:00 AM (view original):
What would you all project for a righty pitcher international prospect with these ratings:

Sta 82
Dur 27
Cntrl 87
vLH 82
vRH 75
Velo 83
GB 79
P1 61
P2 61
P3 59
P4 32
As someone who values pitches less than anyone else I know, even I think this guy is at best a back end reliever, ERA about park-adjusted league average before I adjust for the very low pitches.
10/9/2023 2:19 PM
Posted by Mwett on 10/9/2023 7:30:00 AM (view original):
Small sample but here's the rates from the Top20 Wins from a recent season which are close enough to larger samples I've collected along the way :

Ovr 77.4
Cntrl 86.5
vLH 72.7
vRH 75.7
Velo 54.3
GB 62.6
P1 79.9
P2 70.6
P3 59.5
P4 45.8

I don't use Velo in my rates-n-weights worthiness calcs but added it here as a reminder why I don't although I'd luv to hear from anyone who swears by its relevance. These Top20 it ranged within the Top7 from 77-95, but then a huge gap and the Bottom13 range was from 17-49, showing that success comes elsewhere while Velo is all over the place and practically none of the top rates will succeed with a 17. My first couple newb leagues I showed up convinced Velo and P1/P2 were going to be the HBD holy grail and you can imagine how that worked out. I discovered Velo lack of relevance the first time I did one of these league leader comparisons wanting to know how were the top guys getting it done. Also along the way of my still developing growth curve was and still is regular check-ins with a mentor group. Velo is never mentioned.
I don't disagree, though as a somewhat still new owner (only two hand full of seasons under my belt), I came in thinking velocity might be a little more important as well as I tried to figure out how to gauge a pitcher's value compared to his ratings. No offense to Greg Maddux. Though looking at averages is tough because it's more about the right balance. I did a quick study of 25 pitchers over the course of 3 seasons, who all had Control, vLH, and vRH in the 70-80 range and split them into two groups. Those whose velocity is 75+ and those who are 50-. I wanted a smaller range on the control and splits to see how the velocity might effect them. I could have taken a larger range in those categories but then it's easy to say those changes effected the pitcher more than the velocity change.

5 pitchers with 75+ velocity versus 12 pitchers with 50- velocity. (obviously small sample size, but it's out based upon a list of 1200 players).
Ctrl 77.6 v 76.4
vL 76.4 v 74.3
vR 76.0 v 74.4
GB 68.8 v 41.7
P1 73.6 v 78.6
P2 64.6 v 72.7
P3 53.8 v 52.3
P4 59.4 v 31.8
WHIP 1.37 v 1.33
ERA+ 108.1 v 110.4 (both are better than league average but not by much.)

Those who had lower velocity technically performed better and with lower splits but higher pitch quality. Pitch quality allows for more room for error in their other ratings.
10/9/2023 2:33 PM
I am a big fan of low velocity SP’s - if you look at my teams you’ll see tons of them. But my Formula breaks down and misses on some of them, and it seems to be in cases where velocity and GB are both really low. I’ve also noticed that low VEL RP’s seem to underperform more, but could be small sample sizes.
10/13/2023 10:38 PM
Can velocity affect stolen bases given up?
10/25/2023 3:15 AM
Pretty sure the only thing VEL makes a difference on is strikeouts.
10/25/2023 2:42 PM
If he has mid-80's Control and both Splits, then that guy will be just fine with his 70-60 P1 and P2.
11/6/2023 6:22 PM

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