Posted by Mwett on 10/9/2023 7:30:00 AM (view original):
Small sample but here's the rates from the Top20 Wins from a recent season which are close enough to larger samples I've collected along the way :
Ovr 77.4
Cntrl 86.5
vLH 72.7
vRH 75.7
Velo 54.3
GB 62.6
P1 79.9
P2 70.6
P3 59.5
P4 45.8
I don't use Velo in my rates-n-weights worthiness calcs but added it here as a reminder why I don't although I'd luv to hear from anyone who swears by its relevance. These Top20 it ranged within the Top7 from 77-95, but then a huge gap and the Bottom13 range was from 17-49, showing that success comes elsewhere while Velo is all over the place and practically none of the top rates will succeed with a 17. My first couple newb leagues I showed up convinced Velo and P1/P2 were going to be the HBD holy grail and you can imagine how that worked out. I discovered Velo lack of relevance the first time I did one of these league leader comparisons wanting to know how were the top guys getting it done. Also along the way of my still developing growth curve was and still is regular check-ins with a mentor group. Velo is never mentioned.
I don't disagree, though as a somewhat still new owner (only two hand full of seasons under my belt), I came in thinking velocity might be a little more important as well as I tried to figure out how to gauge a pitcher's value compared to his ratings. No offense to Greg Maddux. Though looking at averages is tough because it's more about the right balance. I did a quick study of 25 pitchers over the course of 3 seasons, who all had Control, vLH, and vRH in the 70-80 range and split them into two groups. Those whose velocity is 75+ and those who are 50-. I wanted a smaller range on the control and splits to see how the velocity might effect them. I could have taken a larger range in those categories but then it's easy to say those changes effected the pitcher more than the velocity change.
5 pitchers with 75+ velocity versus 12 pitchers with 50- velocity. (obviously small sample size, but it's out based upon a list of 1200 players).
Ctrl 77.6 v 76.4
vL 76.4 v 74.3
vR 76.0 v 74.4
GB 68.8 v 41.7
P1 73.6 v 78.6
P2 64.6 v 72.7
P3 53.8 v 52.3
P4 59.4 v 31.8
WHIP 1.37 v 1.33
ERA+ 108.1 v 110.4 (both are better than league average but not by much.)
Those who had lower velocity technically performed better and with lower splits but higher pitch quality. Pitch quality allows for more room for error in their other ratings.