I've got the top pick in our draft and there are a couple of 2B at the top of the list that I wanted to get some thoughts on. Both are 18 yrs old high schoolers:

Player A - Switch hitter, 92 con, 100 pow, 76 left, 63 right, 68 eye, 64 base, 73 speed, 78 range, 68 glove, 46 arm, 67 acc. 97 health

Player B - Right handed bat, 80 con, 69 power, 89 left, 100 right, 94 eye, 88 base, 68 speed, 82 range, 87 glove, 60 arm, 65 acc, 61 health

A has power switch hitting bat potential, less glove, much better health

B has great splits and eye, better glove, but health is a concern.

Thoughts?

Edit: There's also a righty 18 y/o pitcher with the following:

19 durability, 90 stamina, 77 control, 62 lefty, 100 right, 86 vel, 86 g/f, pitches are 94/70/55/35

I do a lot of comps for players, but depending on how much you trust those projected ratings.
Player A - Was hard to comp - but saw everything from a .230 avg, 25-30HR, ~100 OPS+ to a .290 AVG, 40-45 HR, ~145 OPS+. Given a switch hitter, I'd probably lean more towards the better of the two. The 46 arm is going to limit him on defensive obviously; but I'd probably still take a .285 hitter + 40 HR + a possible Gold Glove at 1B.
Player B - .290-.300 hitter, 20-30 HR, ~125 OPS+. Health concerns but sometimes you make it out alive and sometimes you don't.
Player C - 200+ IP, 1.10 WHIP, 2.50-3.30 ERA, 7.5+ K/9

Though I'm still new at this, so let's see what someone else thinks.

You are almost certainly overprojecting the pitcher's VsR-- 38 is a platoon split I've never seen. I'd drop that at least as far as 85 before evaluating. And given that, I would drop the pitcher to 3rd right off the bat. I like B better than A-- but the only position where 61 health worries me is 2B, so I might play him elsewhere in the minors.

Posted by dedelman on 10/16/2023 4:24:00 PM (view original):
You are almost certainly overprojecting the pitcher's VsR-- 38 is a platoon split I've never seen. I'd drop that at least as far as 85 before evaluating. And given that, I would drop the pitcher to 3rd right off the bat. I like B better than A-- but the only position where 61 health worries me is 2B, so I might play him elsewhere in the minors.

Am I missing where the vsR is 38? EDIT: Never mind, I see what you are saying. The projects are clearly off with such a huge diff between vL and vR; though one comp I was looking at; had a 67/96 Versus split.

Cobbfather's Koyie Ward is just a small sample size example. Ward has better 3rd and 4th pitches but much lesser first pitch than your prospect.
S54 - 24 dur, 84 stam, 81 control, 67/96 splits, 81 vel, 78 ground, 75/70/72/75/39 - 193 ip, 1.07 whip, 3.41 era, 163 k
S55 - 24, 84, 78, 67/96, 74, 76, 72/67/70/73/39 - 235 ip, 1.08 whip, 2.83 era, 174 k

But yes, not many comps to look at with such a large split.

Its tough because anytime I see 100's that means the ratings are going to be off. Assuming all things are equal or that the projections are accurate I'd take the second hitter. This guy is going to be a top quality leadoff guy that you will love for years. Let me find a fantastic comparable.

'Gabby' Glen Hayes

Here we are. Ole Gabby Glen Hayes was probably my favorite player I ever drafted. Most seasons were around a .270 Avg, .350 on base, 60 ish stolen bases and 100+ runs.

Here is typically a boxscore that you will see when you have a player like this.

Glen Hayes walks.
Glen Hayes steals second.
One of your next 3 big hitters hits a single and Glen Hayes scores from 2nd.

Always nice when you practically start the game 1-0.

One thing you've not included for the two bats is their Durability. If one is 94 and the other 74 it makes some difference....maybe a big difference.

Assuming that they actually get to those projections....which they won't:

#1 is something like an .850 OPS bat with 35-45 homers year in and year out. He will top 50 a time or two. He can play 2B but works best at 1B or in LF.

#2 works out to be about an .860 bat, as well. He gets there in BA and OBP. He is a very decent CF or 2B glove.

I like homers but I like CF'ers, too. Take your pick. I would consider it pretty unlikely that #2 gets to more than 92-ish in his vR projection. I wouldn't worry about the 61 Health at all. If you have a bunch of $ invested in HS scouting ($18M+) then I would think that #1 gets to 94-96 Power.

The arm is nice....but #3 to me.