Hello coaches!

Congratulations are in order for crabman26 and the UConn Huskies for an impressive 32-3 National Championship run, the program’s first in 136 seasons!

This season, I’m excited to bring you a slightly updated format, where I focus on storylines rather than team-by-team rankings. I’m hopeful that in addition to being a little less time-consuming for me, it also proves to be even more engaging.

Please review this season’s detailed team and player rankings here. Info on the tool that powers this analysis can be found here.

If you enjoy this preview, please pay it back by engaging in the comments and providing a perspective on your program’s outlook for the season!

Without further ado…


Raising Arizona: Arizona State (1) and Arizona (2) claim the top spots

There are two Motion-Man programs atop the rankings this season and they share more similarities than just that. The Arizona-based schools hail from the same division as the Pac 10, meaning we’ll see at least two epic showdowns this season. While Arizona has long claimed dominance in the state, as the owner of two national titles, Arizona State was the more highly ranked team at the end of last season, finishing #5, good for the program’s second-highest finish ever.

Both programs have recruited heavily from the surrounding area, with the majority of players across each roster coming from Arizona and California. However, Arizona’s best player, senior shooting guard Danny Hyatt, hails from Kealakekua, HI. He’s the nation’s best slashing scorer and also a more than capable floor general.

Arizona State takes the cake as the top team due to a slightly better perimeter defense and scoring depth, though my main concern with both programs is a lack of outside shooters. Opponents will key on that this season, which will limit the ability of these two outstanding groups of rebounders.


The Usual Suspects: Four elite programs are tight on the Arizona teams’ heels

Last season, there was only one team within 2.0% of the nation’s top two programs (eventual champion UConn). This season, there are four and they’re all names you’re used to seeing here.

3. Minnesota (A prestige)
4. Georgia Tech (A+)
5. Maryland (A+)
6. Syracuse (A+)

Making things interesting is the fact that three of these teams (Minnesota, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse) run a full-court press scheme. Syracuse has the best stamina, but least overall talent, especially on the offensive end. Two of their challenger counterparts, Minnesota and Maryland, are also coming into this season as defensive-oriented teams. In fact, Syracuse and Minnesota top my defensive rankings by a solid 1.9% margin vs the next closest team (Arizona State).

Georgia Tech is the lone offensive-oriented team among this group. Senior shooting guard William McLaughlin is among the nation’s best sharpshooters and this is a group that can really move the ball and find its shooters. They will be dangerous if their young frontcourt is able to step up throughout the season defensively and on the boards, which currently is the team’s most glaring weak point.

If I had to peg a single team to watch out of this group, it would probably be Minnesota. After reaching the championship game in three out of four seasons, the program has now failed to make it out of the first weekend in four consecutive seasons. But they’re young, with only one senior on the roster and I expect them to be an improved team come March.


All-In: Four programs betting it all on this season

From #7 to #69 in my rankings, there are only four teams expected to lose 4.5 or more players this offseason and they’re all tightly packed behind the group we just discussed:

7. Hartford (5.6 expected departures)
8. Ohio State (5.7)
9. Texas A&M (4.7)
12. Charlotte (6.0)

Hartford is a fun story: after taking over the program 13 seasons ago, coach snafu4u has quickly turned them into a perennial NT team, but they’ve yet to go beyond the first weekend of action. This is their most experienced team yet though and arguably the best frontcourt in the country. Now’s the time to get it done.

Ohio State has finished the season a ranked team just once in the last 26 seasons, a stretch over which they've won four PI titles. With my top-ranked offense in the country, they’ll be able to compete with anyone in the country this season on the right night – though boxing out will be a struggle given their thin frontcourt.

Texas A&M will be another fun team to watch: they boast the nation’s deepest group of three-point shooters and will find themselves in plenty of high-scoring affairs.

And finally we have Charlotte, who finds itself with a new coach for the first time in 23 seasons. Former coach sheirbon (now at UCLA) left behind an indelible mark on the previously docile program, winning two National Championships during their tenure and appearing in two more. The six-season stretch that included those appearances was one of the most dominant this world has ever season. New coach kobo, formerly at Florida, inherits a great group but even greater expectations given what their predecessor accomplished.


Changing of the Guard: Notable programs moving up and down in the rankings

Last season’s top three-ranked programs are all taking a big step back this season:

1. Stanford (New ranking: 25)
2. UConn (New ranking: 17)
3. Indiana (New ranking: 54)

Following up a National Championship season and Final Four finish with a potential first-weekend NT exit would cast no shame on a Stanford program that has been incredibly consistent in recent history, though it’s worth noting that they’ve only failed to finish the season ranked once in the past 22 seasons compared to three times finishing as the nation’s top ranked team. If this down season brings the Cardinal three more titles, I think they’ll take the tradeoff. And with just two players expected to depart, they should be right back near the top with a better recruiting class next season.

UConn may be the most highly ranked of this group, but they’re in a tough position, running a press scheme only 10 scholarship players deep. They have a nice balanced cast of scorers, but no point guard to find them. I’m worried that their solid but unspectacular stamina may not be adequate against other up-tempo teams as well given their short lineup.

Indiana is the only program here undergoing a true rebuild under new coach dedelman, who comes over after 50 seasons and two National Championships at UCLA. During their 37 seasons at Indiana, previous coach pallas finished the season as a top-two team twice, but never got over the hump before retiring. In their wake remains a spotty roster that is young and littered with holes. Nonetheless, there is enough talent to build around and ensure that at most this is a one-season NT drought.

Notable teams moving up that we haven’t already mentioned:

13. Michigan State (Prior ranking: 37)
21. Oklahoma State (Prior ranking: 61)
28. Temple (Prior ranking: 110)
35. NC State (Prior ranking: 203)

Long one of the nation’s most dominant programs, the Spartans of Michigan State have gone dormant in recent years, failing to get out of the first weekend of NT action in four straight seasons. It’s now been 14 seasons since the program’s last Final Four appearance (a season in which they’d go on to win the National Championship). Spurring the revival is a trio of stars including one of the nation’s best perimeter defenders (PG Scott Abney) and elite two-way PF John Ginsburg.

Oklahoma State is a program that disappointed relative to my expectations last season (Pre-Season #28), but is poised to bounce back this time around after missing the NT entirely for the first time in 6 seasons. Outside of junior do-it-all SF Lawrence Wollenberg, this is a roster that lacks elite top-end talent, but makes up for it with impressive depth. They patched up their biggest hole in the frontcourt by signing two elite freshman bigs who may immediately start ahead of the team’s only two seniors. This is a team that should not only be much improved by the postseason, but is set up for an excellent run next season as well.

Temple is a program looking to gain consistency, now on its 6th coach in just 10 seasons. If they’re able to get over the hump and back into the NT, it’ll be on the back of its deep group of bigs, led by senior PF Brian Dowdell. The Owls rank us my 4th best rebounding team overall.

Finally, we have NC State, whose projected ascension (+168) ranks second only to a Miami (OH) team that was one of the nation’s worst a season ago. With four seniors on the roster, the Wolfpack are hoping that this season is the bridge to better things ahead. A 6-strong class of sophomores gives the program hope that they’ll be capable of a Sweet 16 run come March, though even one NT win would suffice for fans who haven’t seen one in nearly 50 seasons now.


Top 50 Rankings

1. Arizona State (86.3%)
2. Arizona (85.9%)
3. Minnesota (85.3%)
4. Georgia Tech (84.7%)
5. Maryland (84.3%)
6. Syracuse (84.0%)
7. Hartford (83.7%)
8. Ohio State (83.7%)
9. Texas A&M (82.7%)
10. Florida (82.2%)
11. Purdue (81.9%)
12. Charlotte (81.6%)
13. Michigan State (81.4%)
14. Duke (81.3%)
15. UCLA (81.1%)
16. DePaul (81.1%)
17. UConn (80.2%)
18. Miami (FL) (80.2%)
19. Michigan (79.9%)
20. Oklahoma (79.9%)
21. Oklahoma State (79.9%)
22. Virginia Tech (79.3%)
23. Kentucky (78.7%)
24. Texas Southern (78.3%)
25. Stanford (78.2%)
26. Cal (78.1%)
27. Nebraska (77.8%)
28. Temple (77.7%)
29. Gonzaga (77.4%)
30. Jacksonville State (77.3%)
31. Missouri (77.2%)
32. Wake Forest (77.1%)
33. Wisconsin (76.8%)
34. Penn State (76.6%)
35. NC State (76.5%)
36. Harvard (76.2%)
37. Prairie View A&M (75.7%)
38. Mississippi State (75.5%)
39. Georgetown (75.1%)
40. Louisville (75.1%)
41. Illinois (75.0%)
42. Florida State (74.9%)
43. Boston College (74.8%)
44. Baylor (74.7%)
45. Louisiana State (74.7%)
46. Oregon (74.7%)
47. Colorado (74.6%)
48. Pittsburgh (74.6%)
49. Arkansas (74.4%)
50. Tulsa (74.4%)


Conference Rankings

1. ACC (76.3%)
2. Big 10 (75.7%)
3. Big 12 (74.5%)
4. PAC 10 (73.5%)
5. Big East (72.0%)
6. SEC (70.4%)
7. WCC (64.5%)
8. Big West (64.5%)

ACC Rankings
4. Georgia Tech
5. Maryland
14. Duke
18. Miami (FL)
22. Virginia Tech
32. Wake Forest
35. NC State
42. Florida State
43. Boston College
85. Virginia
88. North Carolina
135. Clemson

Big 10 Rankings
3. Minnesota
8. Ohio State
11. Purdue
13. Michigan State
19. Michigan
33. Wisconsin
34. Penn State
41. Illinois
57. Indiana
63. Iowa
111. Northwestern
289. Notre Dame

Big 12 Rankings
9. Texas A&M
21. Oklahoma State
20. Oklahoma
27. Nebraska
31. Missouri
44. Baylor
47. Colorado
58. Kansas
59. Texas
80. Kansas State
109. Texas Tech
120. Iowa State

Big East Rankings
6. Syracuse
17. UConn
40. Louisville
39. Georgetown
48. Pittsburgh
51. Cincinnati
54. West Virginia
56. Villanova
73. St. John's
108. Providence
115. Rutgers
320. Seton Hall

PAC 10 Rankings
1. Arizona State
2. Arizona
15. UCLA
25. Stanford
26. Cal
46. Oregon
60. Washington
75. Hawaii
90. Oregon State
132. Southern Cal
155. Fresno State
198. Washington State

SEC Rankings
10. Florida
23. Kentucky
38. Mississippi State
45. Louisiana State
49. Arkansas
66. Georgia
68. Alabama
72. Tennessee
87. Auburn
121. South Carolina
272. Mississippi
294. Vanderbilt

WCC Rankings
29. Gonzaga
67. San Diego
78. San Francisco
101. Santa Clara
103. Pepperdine
106. Loyola Marymount
163. Grambling State
185. San Jose State
196. Nevada
229. Lipscomb
247. Boise State
257. Portland

Big West Rankings
79. Cal Poly SLO
96. Long Beach State
100. UC Santa Barbara
104. Pacific
110. Cal State Northridge
119. Utah State
125. Southern Utah
131. UC Riverside
134. UC Irvine
156. Cal State Fullerton
178. Idaho
219. New Mexico State

Everyone better watch out! I think Auburn is gonna surprise here as a better team than 87th ranked!

love reading these, thanks trail! Pretty accurate with regards to UConn, we had 3 EEs that is hard to recover from so we only have 10 guys....and an okay walk-on that may have to get some playing time.

This is kind of odd but I think Duke is slightly overrated based on our current ratings, but by the end of the season, I expect we'll be a top 15 team. A couple of my big men, Curtis Beeler and Kevin Cheeseman, still have good upside and will be able to give us some much deeded inside scoring presence by the time we get to the conference tournament.

Either way, I think you can safely mark us down for another 2nd round NT exit. This is by far my most disappointing HD world and I think it is because I am really poor at executing the man to man defense. We've been knocked out in the 2nd round 7 of the last 10 seasons and I don't see anything that leads me to believe that trend ends this season.

Really cool to see the ACC is strong again this season. It is a battle every single night in conference play.

Fantastic as always! Been a long time since Brown won an NT but finally have a strong class and watch out in a couple of years!

It's gotten to the point where I get excited for the preview every season - well done, Trail. Up at UW, we are hoping to exceed our projections, but we are young and a ways away from being truly competitive. Over .500 and a postseason bid would be a good season for us.

When the EEs shook out one of the first things I thought was “wonder where I’ll end up on Trail’s preview?”

Excellent post and excited to see how the season shakes out!

As you're preview outlines, will be a step back for Stanford. Still have some good talent but hard to be contender with only 3 returning players...

Geez—7th? Thanks a lot—now I can’t use the Dan Hurley “Nobody respects us” motivation all season. ;-)

Year 3 in the rebuild at Xavier. In year two we were able to defy expectations and grind out 18 wins, which matched the same amount of 3's we hit during the season. We were ranked in the 200's to start the season but ended the season as a 94 on the Projection Report so I was happy with how we performed. Now we find ourselves at 133 on the list so we are improving in the pre-season rankings. We still aren't NT caliber but the goal is to be in 2 more seasons. Good luck this season!

It feels good to finally have a somewhat competitive team at NCSU in year three. After signing a few JUCOs, this is shaping up to be a mini-run. Would certainly just be content to reach the NT, but given our potential I'd like to think we could make a run to the Sweet 16 if everything works out. A single NT win would suffice.

Also wanted to call out Lafayette who is lurking around fringe NT territory but isn't expected to lose a single player. Have an early eye on them for next season.

The two games between Arizona and Arizona State this year should be slugfests. The rivalry recently got a little more heated with a couple of head to head recruiting battles last season. Sun Devils fans will be looking for blood. I am hoping that one of those freshmen, David Anderson, will be able to provide enough outside shooting by the end of the year to at least keep defenses honest.

BTW, I love the reference to Raising Arizona. Comedy gold.

These previews are awesome trail! Really appreciate the work you put into it. I´m looking forward to my first foray into a P5 conference. UCLA should be interesting this year. Great PG, SG, SF players, but lacking high end front court talent. It should be a fun challenge competing in a tough conference.

Looks like it is going to be a battle for Penn State to keep the NT run going. Enjoyed the previews trail