Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 10:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/8/2014 10:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 10:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/8/2014 9:40:00 AM (view original):
Is it safe to assume BL is using WAR?    If so, there are half a dozen within 10%(and I believe BL has used 30% as a rough number for "meaningless") range of Raines.    I also believe BL has said dWAR is somewhat questionable.    If both of these hold true, Raines might be 5th or 15th.    Just eyeballing the stats, he's no better than 10th or so. 

I never said anything about 30% being meaningless. I said you should round WAR to the nearest whole number. Ignore the number after the decimal. So instead of 69.1, Raines is 69. Gwynn gets rounded up to 69. Duke Snider gets rounded up to 67. Joe DiMaggio down to 78. Etc.

I don't keep a file with your posts in it like you do mine but, yeah, you did.    Something to the effect of the difference between a single season WAR of 3.8 was not significantly different than a single season of 3.1.

You round and the difference is 1. But a difference of one isn't big. 3.1 and 3.4 are essentially the same. Like 3.6 and 3.9.

So, over a 20 year career, a difference of say 15-18 is rather meaningless?

Well you just told me that they weren't guessing at Tris Speaker's WAR number....so now you're saying they might just be guessing.

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/8/2014 10:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 10:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/8/2014 10:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 10:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/8/2014 9:40:00 AM (view original):
Is it safe to assume BL is using WAR?    If so, there are half a dozen within 10%(and I believe BL has used 30% as a rough number for "meaningless") range of Raines.    I also believe BL has said dWAR is somewhat questionable.    If both of these hold true, Raines might be 5th or 15th.    Just eyeballing the stats, he's no better than 10th or so. 

I never said anything about 30% being meaningless. I said you should round WAR to the nearest whole number. Ignore the number after the decimal. So instead of 69.1, Raines is 69. Gwynn gets rounded up to 69. Duke Snider gets rounded up to 67. Joe DiMaggio down to 78. Etc.

I don't keep a file with your posts in it like you do mine but, yeah, you did.    Something to the effect of the difference between a single season WAR of 3.8 was not significantly different than a single season of 3.1.

You round and the difference is 1. But a difference of one isn't big. 3.1 and 3.4 are essentially the same. Like 3.6 and 3.9.

So, over a 20 year career, a difference of say 15-18 is rather meaningless?

No. That's meaningful.

If I hit 38 home runs last year and you hit 34, the difference between us in terms of home power last year is negligible. But over twenty years, I might have 80 or 100 more home runs than you. And that's a significant difference.

Posted by The Taint on 1/8/2014 10:26:00 AM (view original):
Well you just told me that they weren't guessing at Tris Speaker's WAR number....so now you're saying they might just be guessing.

I honestly didn't see Speaker in your post, I only saw Snider, that's who I was referring to. I have no idea how they get the defensive component for Speaker.

From BR:

"For seasons we lack play-by-play data (pre-1953), we use information on opposition hitting, pitcher and batter handedness, fielding stats and more to estimate fielder opportunites and outs produced."

So I would basically ignore any defensive calculations for pre-1953 years. They are nothing more than a guess.

This is the way I look at defensive metrics:

Pre-1953 dWAR - a guess but probably slightly better than fielding percentage and range factor.
1953-2002 dWAR - a good approximation of overall fielding ability
2002-today Defensive Runs Saved or Ultimate Zone - very good and probably the best we'll have unless MLB releases HitFX data.

I normally try and stay away from these conversations, but I just don't understand the logic behind this.  If a difference of 1 over the course of a season isn't big, then how is a difference of 15-20 over the course of a 20 year career big?  It's the exact same thing.  The player with the higher number was worth 15-20 more wins over the course of their career, or 1 win per season (assuming both players played 20 seasons of course)

Less than two hours until most of BL's HOF picks (Raines, Edgar, etc.) are once again left on the outside looking in.

Let's not forget MikeT voted for Piazza and Mattingly (who won't get in) and left Glavine off (who will get in easily). So his "wisdom" isn't much greater.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/8/2014 12:19:00 PM (view original):
Less than two hours until most of BL's HOF picks (Raines, Edgar, etc.) are once again left on the outside looking in.

True, unfortunately.

My picks:

Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Schilling
Bagwell
Mussina
Glavine
Thomas
Walker
Trammell
Martinez
Raines
Biggio
Piazza

Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 12:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 1/8/2014 12:19:00 PM (view original):
Less than two hours until most of BL's HOF picks (Raines, Edgar, etc.) are once again left on the outside looking in.

True, unfortunately.

My picks:

Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Schilling
Bagwell
Mussina
Glavine
Thomas
Walker
Trammell
Martinez
Raines
Biggio
Piazza

LOL @ you and your picks.

Too bad Kenny Lofton fell off the ballot.

Posted by byeags25 on 1/8/2014 12:08:00 PM (view original):
I normally try and stay away from these conversations, but I just don't understand the logic behind this.  If a difference of 1 over the course of a season isn't big, then how is a difference of 15-20 over the course of a 20 year career big?  It's the exact same thing.  The player with the higher number was worth 15-20 more wins over the course of their career, or 1 win per season (assuming both players played 20 seasons of course)

WAR is inexact. It's three components (offense, defense, and baserunning) measured in runs and then translated to wins above a theoretical replacement level.

It doesn't make sense to insist on it being exact, like 3.4 being measurably different than 3.1. Instead you round off. But, over 20 years, a 15 or 20 win difference is significant.

Posted by Jtpsops on 1/8/2014 12:32:00 PM (view original):
Let's not forget MikeT voted for Piazza and Mattingly (who won't get in) and left Glavine off (who will get in easily). So his "wisdom" isn't much greater.

Piazza might sneak in.  My guess is that he'll be close to 75%.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/8/2014 12:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 12:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 1/8/2014 12:19:00 PM (view original):
Less than two hours until most of BL's HOF picks (Raines, Edgar, etc.) are once again left on the outside looking in.

True, unfortunately.

My picks:

Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Schilling
Bagwell
Mussina
Glavine
Thomas
Walker
Trammell
Martinez
Raines
Biggio
Piazza

LOL @ you and your picks.

Too bad Kenny Lofton fell off the ballot.

LOL??? I though you were an old computer guy. Not a 14 year old girl.

It is too bad Lofton fell off the ballot. He should have gotten more consideration, though I would not have voted for him this year because there are so many other worthy candidates.

Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 11:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/8/2014 10:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 10:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/8/2014 10:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 1/8/2014 10:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/8/2014 9:40:00 AM (view original):
Is it safe to assume BL is using WAR?    If so, there are half a dozen within 10%(and I believe BL has used 30% as a rough number for "meaningless") range of Raines.    I also believe BL has said dWAR is somewhat questionable.    If both of these hold true, Raines might be 5th or 15th.    Just eyeballing the stats, he's no better than 10th or so. 

I never said anything about 30% being meaningless. I said you should round WAR to the nearest whole number. Ignore the number after the decimal. So instead of 69.1, Raines is 69. Gwynn gets rounded up to 69. Duke Snider gets rounded up to 67. Joe DiMaggio down to 78. Etc.

I don't keep a file with your posts in it like you do mine but, yeah, you did.    Something to the effect of the difference between a single season WAR of 3.8 was not significantly different than a single season of 3.1.

You round and the difference is 1. But a difference of one isn't big. 3.1 and 3.4 are essentially the same. Like 3.6 and 3.9.

So, over a 20 year career, a difference of say 15-18 is rather meaningless?

No. That's meaningful.

If I hit 38 home runs last year and you hit 34, the difference between us in terms of home power last year is negligible. But over twenty years, I might have 80 or 100 more home runs than you. And that's a significant difference.

How so?  


Player A has a career WAR of 69.   He played 20 seasons.   3.45 wins per season.
Player B has a career WAR of 54,   He also played 20 seasons.  2.7 wins per season.

Now that .75 WAR per season is pretty meaningless.   Less than 1 win per season.
Yet, somehow, over 20 seasons, those less than 1 win per season becomes significant. 

And that's ignoring the effect of dWAR which none of us seem to trust.