Is WAR a stat? Topic

Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:15:00 PM (view original):
Posted by sjpoker on 9/7/2016 11:09:00 PM (view original):
Altuve's added value on the bases trumps Donaldsons significantly better performance at 3B - a tougher position?
50 points of BA isn't hurting either.
FWIW, fangraphs has Donaldson ahead 7.0 to 6.6. Entirely on the strength of his defense.
9/7/2016 11:18 PM
“I mean, you could claim that anything's real if the only basis for believing in it is that nobody's proved it doesn't exist!”
9/8/2016 12:23 AM
Posted by sjpoker on 9/7/2016 11:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by sjpoker on 9/7/2016 10:49:00 PM (view original):
Josh Donaldson is one of the best defensive players at a tougher position, yet with nearly identical stats is a marginal loser to Altuve. And Altuve is regarded as an average at best fielder. At best.

Hmm. That sounds ridiculous.
He also plays in a better hitter's park. Look, Donaldson is awesome. So is Altuve. If you want to argue that Donalfson is actually slightly better this season, you could probably make a good case.

None of that discredits WAR.
Donaldson is significantly better than Altuve. Altuve is a mediocre defensive player with no added value who is much less patient and much more lucky. WAR is deeply flawed and this is a good example. Hell, Dozier and Cano are better overall contributors. Altuve is having b a good year, but he isn't as good as those other players.
Alright, this is where disagree with you. Altuve is a much better player than Donaldson.
9/8/2016 3:36 AM
TB + BB + SB - CS (through yesterday):

Donaldson: 383 in 134 games/605 PAs
Altuve: 376 in 137 games/616 PAs

If you want to be old-school and look at production, Donaldson leads Altuve in both runs and RBI.

Donaldson is a Gold Glove caliber 3B, the only reason he's not winning them is that we happen to be in a bit of a golden age of 3B defense, particularly in the American League. Altuve is not quite an Iron Glove caliber 2B, but he's not good either. Basically average or slightly below.

In what way is Altuve "a much better player?"
9/8/2016 6:28 AM
d_rock -

After looking at BL's weak arguments (because he's married to WAR and uses that exclusively), my responses are -

His speed has a negligible impact when comparing to Donaldson. Has it resulted in more runs? Not really. I suppose you can blame who bats behind Altuve, but if his speed is getting him a lot further on the basepaths over a season than Donaldson, then I suppose we could expect the runs to be a lot closer right? Plus, Donaldson isn't really a slouch on the basepaths. He's actually quite efficent. He just doesn't run as much.

Altuve is a good bat, but very lucky with that bat. Altuve has more hits, but he doesn't really work the count does he? Donaldson does. They get on base at the same clip, but Donaldson works the pitchers more. Both players have almost the same number of ABs. But Donaldson has seen 400 more pitches. He sees more than a 1/2 pitch per AB. BL said Altuve had 'similar power'. Well, not really. I'm sure if you looked at some of BL's wonder stats that measured how hard he hits the ball, how often he hits the ball in the air, and FB distance, Donaldson would be much better. SLG might be similar, but you really can't go on that alone. Well, unless you were married to WAR. As for Park Factor, how different is Houston than Toronto. I'm betting its not as drastic as BL says it is.

And like I said, Donaldson is a FAR better defensive player at a tougher position than Altuve. Altuve is at best average. Donaldson is one of the best 3B in the game.

And Donaldson is getting better while Altuve really doesn't have much of a ceiling beyond what he currently has shown. Donaldson has improved each season. Where can Altuve get better?

Donaldson is clearly the better player and getting better. WAR in this case is pretty far off.
9/8/2016 6:31 AM
Not even looking at WAR . . .

It's difficult to dismiss Altuve as clearly inferior to Donaldson, at least as far as this season's performance goes. As much as it pains me to agree with the Argue Monkey, his analysis of Altuve vs. Donaldson is pretty much dead on. They're both getting on base at the same rate (.406/.405), but they're doing it in slightly different ways. They're reached base via hit or walk 244 times and 240 times respectively in roughly the same number of PA's (621 vs 609), but Altuve has 42 more hits and 38 less walks than Donaldson. Hits are clearly better than walks, so advantage to Altuve.

In terms of power, then have roughly the same number of XBH (65 vs. 66). The main difference being Altuve has 11 more doubles and 12 fewer home runs. So advantage to Donaldson in the power category. But overall, all the extra singles that Altuve is hitting that are walks for Donaldson negates the difference in power, so overall offensive production is a wash. When you throw in baserunning (i.e. stolen bases), a slight nod to Altuve for overall offense.

As far as defense, Donaldson may be a better 3B than Altuve is a 2B, but getting the same (if not slightly better) offense that you get from Altuve as a middle infielder balances the same (if not slightly worse) offense that you get from Donaldson at third.

You can't go wrong with either one. But it's not a fair analysis to claim that "Donaldson is clearly the better player" over Altuve, because a truthful evaluation says otherwise.

9/8/2016 8:22 AM
You agreed with Angry BL. You know he has a chub right now right?

When I said that Donaldson is clearly the better player, I meant that he's literally the better player. Guys like BL point to WAR and say that tells you that one player is better than another player. WAR only measures that - according to subjective measure - one player has performed better than another player. But again, I don't think WAR is even close to being an absolute. Its flawed. The fact that there are multiple WARs out there kinda underlines that.

I'd argue that Donaldson is a more complete player and getting better. He is (maybe slightly) better at the plate, and (much) better with the glove. As to baserunning - his baserunning skills aren't apparent using stats alone, because he attempts a lot less of them. But he's like 20 out of 20 the last 4 seasons. Could he steal 20 in a season? I'd think so. He's not slow. He's a middle order bat with elite power. And he's got guys in the lineup who follow him that can drive him in. You won't see him steal that much. But Altuve is clearly a better basestealer because he's - probably - the best in the game. But I don't think Donaldson is a dud either.

Altuve is performing at his maximum. He's a very good hitter, an average fielder at best, and an elite baserunner. I don't see how he will improve at bat, on the basepaths, or in the field.

So they are are arguably equal at the plate, Donaldson has the clear advantage in the field, and Altuve has a an advantage on the basepaths.

The question I have is - is it better to have a Donaldson out there or an Altuve? I'll take a top bat/top glove guy over a top bat/average glove guy regardless of added SB value. Especially if both are in the AL. Maybe not in 1986. But today, yes.


9/8/2016 8:54 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 11:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 11:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 10:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 10:07:00 PM (view original):
Post the full ticket, lying crybaby piece of ****.
Look mr demandy, I already posted a screenshot of the sitemail. You can eat ****, liar.

Or post your sitemail.


Except you can't. Because you made it up. What are you five?





You posted a partial screenshot, their answer, not the full thing. Because you never asked a question. You made up some bullshit screenshot, 1 minute after an exchange between us, "proving" ADMIN confirmed your lie that you didn't send a ticket.

As I said, weak execution of a bullshit "ticket response" to go with your crybaby ticket reporting me in the first.

You're stupid, a crybaby and an Argue Monkey. Post the full ticket or STFU about your "proof".
One minute after? What are you talking about?

Post your sitemail or **** off. I've provided proof.
You've providing nothing, you ******* crybaby. Go back to 3:40ish today to see "one minute after", *****.

Just report me again, you big whinebag.
Whatever liar. Go get ******. You haven't provided anything. I've provided a screenshot.
You've provided nothing, you cunty *****. Post the full screenshot or STFU.
**** off until you're ready to post that made up sitemail.
Post the full screen shot, *****. You're big on posting screen shots. Do it, crybaby.
9/8/2016 8:59 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/8/2016 8:59:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 11:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 11:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 10:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 10:07:00 PM (view original):
Post the full ticket, lying crybaby piece of ****.
Look mr demandy, I already posted a screenshot of the sitemail. You can eat ****, liar.

Or post your sitemail.


Except you can't. Because you made it up. What are you five?





You posted a partial screenshot, their answer, not the full thing. Because you never asked a question. You made up some bullshit screenshot, 1 minute after an exchange between us, "proving" ADMIN confirmed your lie that you didn't send a ticket.

As I said, weak execution of a bullshit "ticket response" to go with your crybaby ticket reporting me in the first.

You're stupid, a crybaby and an Argue Monkey. Post the full ticket or STFU about your "proof".
One minute after? What are you talking about?

Post your sitemail or **** off. I've provided proof.
You've providing nothing, you ******* crybaby. Go back to 3:40ish today to see "one minute after", *****.

Just report me again, you big whinebag.
Whatever liar. Go get ******. You haven't provided anything. I've provided a screenshot.
You've provided nothing, you cunty *****. Post the full screenshot or STFU.
**** off until you're ready to post that made up sitemail.
Post the full screen shot, *****. You're big on posting screen shots. Do it, crybaby.
Christ. Are you still drunk?

Look man, I know it's embarrassing to get caught in a lie. Especially when the lie was completely unnecessary to begin with. But you're just going to have to get over that humiliation.
9/8/2016 9:03 AM
Posted by sjpoker on 9/8/2016 8:54:00 AM (view original):
You agreed with Angry BL. You know he has a chub right now right?

When I said that Donaldson is clearly the better player, I meant that he's literally the better player. Guys like BL point to WAR and say that tells you that one player is better than another player. WAR only measures that - according to subjective measure - one player has performed better than another player. But again, I don't think WAR is even close to being an absolute. Its flawed. The fact that there are multiple WARs out there kinda underlines that.

I'd argue that Donaldson is a more complete player and getting better. He is (maybe slightly) better at the plate, and (much) better with the glove. As to baserunning - his baserunning skills aren't apparent using stats alone, because he attempts a lot less of them. But he's like 20 out of 20 the last 4 seasons. Could he steal 20 in a season? I'd think so. He's not slow. He's a middle order bat with elite power. And he's got guys in the lineup who follow him that can drive him in. You won't see him steal that much. But Altuve is clearly a better basestealer because he's - probably - the best in the game. But I don't think Donaldson is a dud either.

Altuve is performing at his maximum. He's a very good hitter, an average fielder at best, and an elite baserunner. I don't see how he will improve at bat, on the basepaths, or in the field.

So they are are arguably equal at the plate, Donaldson has the clear advantage in the field, and Altuve has a an advantage on the basepaths.

The question I have is - is it better to have a Donaldson out there or an Altuve? I'll take a top bat/top glove guy over a top bat/average glove guy regardless of added SB value. Especially if both are in the AL. Maybe not in 1986. But today, yes.


No stat can tell us anything other than how a player performed.

Also, this is a terrible example because their WAR numbers are almost identical.
9/8/2016 9:04 AM
Posted by sjpoker on 9/8/2016 8:54:00 AM (view original):
You agreed with Angry BL. You know he has a chub right now right?

When I said that Donaldson is clearly the better player, I meant that he's literally the better player. Guys like BL point to WAR and say that tells you that one player is better than another player. WAR only measures that - according to subjective measure - one player has performed better than another player. But again, I don't think WAR is even close to being an absolute. Its flawed. The fact that there are multiple WARs out there kinda underlines that.

I'd argue that Donaldson is a more complete player and getting better. He is (maybe slightly) better at the plate, and (much) better with the glove. As to baserunning - his baserunning skills aren't apparent using stats alone, because he attempts a lot less of them. But he's like 20 out of 20 the last 4 seasons. Could he steal 20 in a season? I'd think so. He's not slow. He's a middle order bat with elite power. And he's got guys in the lineup who follow him that can drive him in. You won't see him steal that much. But Altuve is clearly a better basestealer because he's - probably - the best in the game. But I don't think Donaldson is a dud either.

Altuve is performing at his maximum. He's a very good hitter, an average fielder at best, and an elite baserunner. I don't see how he will improve at bat, on the basepaths, or in the field.

So they are are arguably equal at the plate, Donaldson has the clear advantage in the field, and Altuve has a an advantage on the basepaths.

The question I have is - is it better to have a Donaldson out there or an Altuve? I'll take a top bat/top glove guy over a top bat/average glove guy regardless of added SB value. Especially if both are in the AL. Maybe not in 1986. But today, yes.


Why are you thinking about BL's *****?

Anyways, I think you're selling Altuve short (no pun intended . . . well, maybe a little. Oops, there I go again!).

Donaldson only started playing full time at age 27. Altuve already has 3,000+ more PA's at age 26 than Donaldson had at age 26. Altuve is just approaching his prime years and clearly getting better, while Donaldson is already in his prime at age 30. For all we know, Donaldson could be hitting his plateau, while it's not unreasonable to think that Altuve can continue to improve. There's a lot more potential upside with Altuve than Donaldson in the years to come.

One other thing I missed earlier. Even though Donaldson doesn't have an egregiously bad strikeout rate, he does strike out at twice the rate that Altuve does. Despite the Argue Monkey's assertion that strikeouts are just another kind of out, I'll take the guy who puts the ball in play more often than the guy who doesn't, especially if their overall production is similar. The good things that are happening on those additional balls in play aren't showing up in the stats, but anybody who understands baseball (that excludes the Argue Monkey) knows that they're there.
9/8/2016 9:23 AM
Posted by bad_luck on 9/8/2016 9:03:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/8/2016 8:59:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 11:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 11:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 10:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 10:07:00 PM (view original):
Post the full ticket, lying crybaby piece of ****.
Look mr demandy, I already posted a screenshot of the sitemail. You can eat ****, liar.

Or post your sitemail.


Except you can't. Because you made it up. What are you five?





You posted a partial screenshot, their answer, not the full thing. Because you never asked a question. You made up some bullshit screenshot, 1 minute after an exchange between us, "proving" ADMIN confirmed your lie that you didn't send a ticket.

As I said, weak execution of a bullshit "ticket response" to go with your crybaby ticket reporting me in the first.

You're stupid, a crybaby and an Argue Monkey. Post the full ticket or STFU about your "proof".
One minute after? What are you talking about?

Post your sitemail or **** off. I've provided proof.
You've providing nothing, you ******* crybaby. Go back to 3:40ish today to see "one minute after", *****.

Just report me again, you big whinebag.
Whatever liar. Go get ******. You haven't provided anything. I've provided a screenshot.
You've provided nothing, you cunty *****. Post the full screenshot or STFU.
**** off until you're ready to post that made up sitemail.
Post the full screen shot, *****. You're big on posting screen shots. Do it, crybaby.
Christ. Are you still drunk?

Look man, I know it's embarrassing to get caught in a lie. Especially when the lie was completely unnecessary to begin with. But you're just going to have to get over that humiliation.
The physical proof is out there for your lie. You posted some made up bullshit screen shot, poorly executed by a moron, and got busted.

The proof that I didn't lie is that you got your *** handed to you for several pages and, shockingly, the thread disappears.

You're a lying crybaby. If you'd like to prove you aren't, post the FULL screen shot.
9/8/2016 10:19 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/8/2016 10:19:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/8/2016 9:03:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/8/2016 8:59:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 11:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 11:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 11:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 10:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 9/7/2016 10:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 9/7/2016 10:07:00 PM (view original):
Post the full ticket, lying crybaby piece of ****.
Look mr demandy, I already posted a screenshot of the sitemail. You can eat ****, liar.

Or post your sitemail.


Except you can't. Because you made it up. What are you five?





You posted a partial screenshot, their answer, not the full thing. Because you never asked a question. You made up some bullshit screenshot, 1 minute after an exchange between us, "proving" ADMIN confirmed your lie that you didn't send a ticket.

As I said, weak execution of a bullshit "ticket response" to go with your crybaby ticket reporting me in the first.

You're stupid, a crybaby and an Argue Monkey. Post the full ticket or STFU about your "proof".
One minute after? What are you talking about?

Post your sitemail or **** off. I've provided proof.
You've providing nothing, you ******* crybaby. Go back to 3:40ish today to see "one minute after", *****.

Just report me again, you big whinebag.
Whatever liar. Go get ******. You haven't provided anything. I've provided a screenshot.
You've provided nothing, you cunty *****. Post the full screenshot or STFU.
**** off until you're ready to post that made up sitemail.
Post the full screen shot, *****. You're big on posting screen shots. Do it, crybaby.
Christ. Are you still drunk?

Look man, I know it's embarrassing to get caught in a lie. Especially when the lie was completely unnecessary to begin with. But you're just going to have to get over that humiliation.
The physical proof is out there for your lie. You posted some made up bullshit screen shot, poorly executed by a moron, and got busted.

The proof that I didn't lie is that you got your *** handed to you for several pages and, shockingly, the thread disappears.

You're a lying crybaby. If you'd like to prove you aren't, post the FULL screen shot.
Uh huh. Go away liar.
9/8/2016 10:26 AM
I'll do the exact same thing I did before you reported me last time. I asked you to admit you didn't read the law you ripped as THE MOST RACIST!!! PIECE OF **** LAW EVER ON THE BOOKS and I'd leave you alone the next day. The next day the thread disappears and I get a warning because you reported me.

So, today, just post the full screen shot and I'll leave you alone. Or, conversely, admit you thought you had a clever plan to get out of admitting you're a crybaby and you botched it. Either way, do one or the other, and I'll drop it.

Otherwise, everyone recognizes that you're a crybaby, a liar, a dumbass and the Argue Monkey.
9/8/2016 10:43 AM
Argue Monkey does not like being called out!

9/8/2016 10:55 AM
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Is WAR a stat? Topic

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