Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic

Jtpsops
Posts: 15509 (0)
Hall of Famer
746 1 2 2 144
Prospect
I don't know about Hunter's health - if he was physically declining, then no, obviously he didn't leave anything on the table. But his WHIP was 1.21 over '77 and '78 (1.12 in .78). Carlton didn't have a WHIP under 1.27 after '82.

So '79 was really the only terrible year for Hunter, his last.
2/22/2012 2:20 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
WHIP isn't a great stat.
2/22/2012 2:26 PM
Jtpsops
Posts: 15509 (0)
Hall of Famer
746 1 2 2 144
Prospect
It's a hell of a lot better than ERA, Mr. Stat Monkey
2/22/2012 2:32 PM
AlCheez
Posts: 3375 (0)
Hall of Famer
12 59 54
Pro
Posted by Jtpsops on 2/22/2012 2:20:00 PM (view original):
I don't know about Hunter's health - if he was physically declining, then no, obviously he didn't leave anything on the table. But his WHIP was 1.21 over '77 and '78 (1.12 in .78). Carlton didn't have a WHIP under 1.27 after '82.

So '79 was really the only terrible year for Hunter, his last.

If he was declining physically?  There's some other reason he would have gone from having 3 seasons where he averaged 315 innings a year to having 3 where he totaled 360?

2/22/2012 2:43 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
It's a hell of a lot better than ERA, Mr. Stat Monkey
Not really but neither is a great stat.  They usually correlate somewhat but both suffer from noise from the defense behind them and luck.  WHIP ignores HR rates (somewhat, they are still hits) and K rates (also somewhat because K's aren't hits or walks) while ERA tries to distinguish (awkwardly) between runs that are "earned" and runs that aren't. 

ERA+ and FIP are better than both.
2/22/2012 2:54 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by Jtpsops on 2/22/2012 2:20:00 PM (view original):
I don't know about Hunter's health - if he was physically declining, then no, obviously he didn't leave anything on the table. But his WHIP was 1.21 over '77 and '78 (1.12 in .78). Carlton didn't have a WHIP under 1.27 after '82.

So '79 was really the only terrible year for Hunter, his last.
Hunter closed out his career battling injuries. 
2/22/2012 3:08 PM
Jtpsops
Posts: 15509 (0)
Hall of Famer
746 1 2 2 144
Prospect
Posted by jrd_x on 2/22/2012 2:55:00 PM (view original):
It's a hell of a lot better than ERA, Mr. Stat Monkey
Not really but neither is a great stat.  They usually correlate somewhat but both suffer from noise from the defense behind them and luck.  WHIP ignores HR rates (somewhat, they are still hits) and K rates (also somewhat because K's aren't hits or walks) while ERA tries to distinguish (awkwardly) between runs that are "earned" and runs that aren't. 

ERA+ and FIP are better than both.
So a strikeout is better than a groundout?

And WHIP has zero to do with luck - last time I checked, defenders can't give up walks. And any mistakes by the defense are not recorded as hits. Only the argument of range would have some merit here.

Anyway, it was you who brought up ERA, pointing out Hunter's ERA over his last few seasons. I pointed to WHIP because it's a lot more reliable than ERA.

But if you think a stat is worthless, try not to bring it up to support your points, mmm k?
2/22/2012 3:13 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Yes, the only important things a pitcher can do is not walk people, not give up homers and strike people out.     That's it.    That's the list.

Ignore WHIP and ERA because that's just luck.  So, if a pitcher has a low ERA and WHIP over his career but doesn't strike people out, he's just been a lucky SOB.
2/22/2012 3:16 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by Jtpsops on 2/22/2012 3:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 2/22/2012 2:55:00 PM (view original):
It's a hell of a lot better than ERA, Mr. Stat Monkey
Not really but neither is a great stat.  They usually correlate somewhat but both suffer from noise from the defense behind them and luck.  WHIP ignores HR rates (somewhat, they are still hits) and K rates (also somewhat because K's aren't hits or walks) while ERA tries to distinguish (awkwardly) between runs that are "earned" and runs that aren't. 

ERA+ and FIP are better than both.
So a strikeout is better than a groundout?

And WHIP has zero to do with luck - last time I checked, defenders can't give up walks. And any mistakes by the defense are not recorded as hits. Only the argument of range would have some merit here.

Anyway, it was you who brought up ERA, pointing out Hunter's ERA over his last few seasons. I pointed to WHIP because it's a lot more reliable than ERA.

But if you think a stat is worthless, try not to bring it up to support your points, mmm k?
An out is an out but roughly 30% of all balls in play become hits while 0% of strikeouts become hits. Pitchers that strike more batters out are better than pitchers that allow more balls in play.

You're right, fielders don't give up walks. We should focus on a pitchers walk rate. But hits are another story. There isn't much a pitcher can do to influence whether a groundball becomes a hit or an out. That is influenced much more by the quality of the defense and luck. At that point separating the skill of the pitcher from the skill of the defense and luck becomes difficult.

I did use his ERA. If you'd like to use another stat we can, it doesn't change the fact that Hunter was in serious decline his last three seasons and couldn't have pitched much longer.
2/22/2012 3:32 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect

The quality of the pitch doesn't affect how well a ball is struck?

2/22/2012 3:36 PM
Jtpsops
Posts: 15509 (0)
Hall of Famer
746 1 2 2 144
Prospect
30% of all balls in play become hits - that's an average, correct? Which includes the worst pitchers with the best? I bet I can find you a lot of pitchers who didn't K many guys, but had an OAV well under .300. I'm sure I can also find you high K guys with horrible OAVs.

Pitchers who strike more batters out also throw more pitches than guys who put more balls in play, and thus don't last longer in games.

You can't look at it in a vacuum and say "high K guys are awesome - low K guys suck!!" There are effective and terrible pitchers in both categories.
2/22/2012 3:39 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Here's the thing: 

 

FIP can be a good tool.    Walks and homers are bad.   Not giving them up is a good thing.   Strikeouts are good.  Fielders can't dick up a strikeout.   However, calling it the "best" tool for measuring a peformance is stupid(and also incorrect from what I've read as it supposed to be used to PREDICT FUTURE PERFORMANCE).  Anyone who's ever swung a bat, or even watched someone swing a bat, knows that most pitches are hittable.   Wood on leather.   But some are much more hittable. 

2/22/2012 3:45 PM
tecwrg
Posts: 18997 (0)
Hall of Famer
4 1 166 32 129
Prospect
So what I'm hearing is that if my 51 year old rag-arm can somehow consistently groove my 47 MPH fastball down Broadway, my OAV will be no worse than .300?

That's cool.
2/22/2012 3:50 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Hell, you may even have a nice FIP if you can keep it in the park. 
2/22/2012 3:52 PM
jrd_x
Posts: 1481 (0)
Prospect
3
Prospect
Posted by Jtpsops on 2/22/2012 3:39:00 PM (view original):
30% of all balls in play become hits - that's an average, correct? Which includes the worst pitchers with the best? I bet I can find you a lot of pitchers who didn't K many guys, but had an OAV well under .300. I'm sure I can also find you high K guys with horrible OAVs.

Pitchers who strike more batters out also throw more pitches than guys who put more balls in play, and thus don't last longer in games.

You can't look at it in a vacuum and say "high K guys are awesome - low K guys suck!!" There are effective and terrible pitchers in both categories.
BABIP is the stat you need not OAV. And it is an average. Hunter's is very low-- something like .250. But even the 25% of all his balls in play became hits (plus the HR) when 0% of his K's became hits.

There are outliers for everything but in general, the better pitchers strike a lot of batters out. And in general, the result of a ball in play depends more on defense and luck than the skill of the pitcher.
2/22/2012 3:52 PM
◂ Prev 1...16|17|18|19|20...103 Next ▸
Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic
△Top△Bottom

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2025 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.