Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic

MikeT23
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 9:48:00 AM (view original):
You should try to get a basic understanding and then come back.
OHH!!!  The 2nd  "You don't understand stats"!!!

You should try to become less dick-like and people might take you, and your flawed stats, a bit more seriously.
2/23/2012 10:04 AM
MikeT23
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This is why most stat-nerds need to go outside and throw a ball every now and then:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuWoLBhnJ1g&feature=player_embedded
2/23/2012 10:12 AM
MikeT23
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Honestly, to anyone who every played ball at any level, have you ever heard "Make him throw strikes" or "Make him hit the ball" yelled during a game?   I've never heard "Don't let him hit it a long way" because, I assume, it's understood.

There's nothing from FIP that we didn't know all our lives.  Of course, the stat-nerds think they've discovered something groundbreaking.
2/23/2012 10:14 AM
jrd_x
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:03:00 AM (view original):
From fangraphs:  

- FIP does a better job of predicting the future than of measuring the present, meaning there can be a lot of fluctuation in smaller samples. It’s not a great choice when trying to describe how a pitcher performed during a single game.

You left out this part:
"Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a give time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play, so a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level is by looking at things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

Obviously, a walk is not as hurtful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these differences, and presents results on the same scale as ERA. It has been proven to be much more effective than ERA at predicting future performance, and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis."

It's a record of what happened. It's not a predictive stat but is more effective at predicting the future than ERA.
2/23/2012 10:22 AM
MikeT23
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FIP isn't a record of what's happened.    It's a formula.   The record is the walks, the strikeouts and the homeruns.    FIP also pretends that every struck ball is the same.    Watch a game.   They aren't.
2/23/2012 10:30 AM
MikeT23
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I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.
2/23/2012 10:31 AM
jrd_x
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:30:00 AM (view original):
FIP isn't a record of what's happened.    It's a formula.   The record is the walks, the strikeouts and the homeruns.    FIP also pretends that every struck ball is the same.    Watch a game.   They aren't.
FIP is a formula. So is ERA.
2/23/2012 10:32 AM
jrd_x
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.
For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.
2/23/2012 10:33 AM
tecwrg
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.
For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.

Can a pitcher have any influence on how well struck a ball in play was hit?

2/23/2012 10:35 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:30:00 AM (view original):
FIP isn't a record of what's happened.    It's a formula.   The record is the walks, the strikeouts and the homeruns.    FIP also pretends that every struck ball is the same.    Watch a game.   They aren't.
FIP is a formula. So is ERA.
I never said ERA was a record.    What's your point?
2/23/2012 10:38 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.
For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.
So, IOW, a 88 MPH fastball across the meat of the plate will only be struck as well as a 92 MPH slider that just nicks the corner of the plate?  Or will that 88 MPH fastball on the meat of the plate always be a homer?

Watch a game.
2/23/2012 10:40 AM
Jtpsops
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FWIW, any stat that includes "should" and "assuming" is not all that reliable. It really does no good because pitchers rarely play in front of a league average defense, or get perfectly average performance in balls in play, etc. There are always different external factors in every performance.

 

2/23/2012 10:41 AM
jrd_x
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Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 10:35:00 AM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.
For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.

Can a pitcher have any influence on how well struck a ball in play was hit?

The pitcher can control how well a ball is hit
2/23/2012 10:42 AM
jrd_x
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:40:00 AM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.
For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.
So, IOW, a 88 MPH fastball across the meat of the plate will only be struck as well as a 92 MPH slider that just nicks the corner of the plate?  Or will that 88 MPH fastball on the meat of the plate always be a homer?

Watch a game.
A homer isn't a ball in play. Watch a game.
2/23/2012 10:43 AM
Jtpsops
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.
For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.
So if a pitcher hangs one that gets laced to the gap, it's the fielders fault for not getting there quickly enough?
2/23/2012 10:44 AM
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