Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:43:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:40:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.

For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.

So, IOW, a 88 MPH fastball across the meat of the plate will only be struck as well as a 92 MPH slider that just nicks the corner of the plate?  Or will that 88 MPH fastball on the meat of the plate always be a homer?

Watch a game.

A homer isn't a ball in play. Watch a game.

You seem to be avoiding the question.  A ball has to be put in play in order to become a hit of any sort..  I might argue that the ball is in play once the pitcher takes the rubber with the ball.  Unless, of course, you think runners can steal when the ball is not in play.    You may want to read a book on baseball.

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/23/2012 10:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.

For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.

So if a pitcher hangs one that gets laced to the gap, it's the fielders fault for not getting there quickly enough?

If that same ball goes right to the CF is the pitcher somehow better?

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 10:35:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.

For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.

Can a pitcher have any influence on how well struck a ball in play was hit?

This, to me, is my issue with FIP and the whole BABIP thing.  I've seen enough with BABIP to basically buy into the idea that pitchers don't have as much control over it as I think it seems like they should.  If a guy like Roy Halladay can't consistently stay under .300 BABIP with how much he moves and commands the ball, then I'm really not sure who could control that.  That being said, Halladay has been consistently outperforming his FIP for 6 years, despite being right around league average in BABIP.   Since it's been years since people considered BA the sole measure of offensive capability, I'm not sure why the discussion stops at BABIP relative to how much control a pitcher has over the results of balls in play.  FIP gets at OBP by including walk rate, but misses a big part of slugging since it only deals with HRs.  If Halladay's not letting anyone square him up, he might not see a consistent BABIP drop because a lot of those weak grounders and bloops can wind up as hits depending on where they go - but there's a hell of a lot less chance of those plays turning into 2B and 3B, no matter the defense behind them. 

No, but you said the pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit. You do realize they're pitching to ML hitters, right? Hitters that, if a bad pitch is thrown, have the ability to control the direction they hit the ball in.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:45:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:43:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:40:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.

For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.

So, IOW, a 88 MPH fastball across the meat of the plate will only be struck as well as a 92 MPH slider that just nicks the corner of the plate?  Or will that 88 MPH fastball on the meat of the plate always be a homer?

Watch a game.

A homer isn't a ball in play. Watch a game.

You seem to be avoiding the question.  A ball has to be put in play in order to become a hit of any sort..  I might argue that the ball is in play once the pitcher takes the rubber with the ball.  Unless, of course, you think runners can steal when the ball is not in play.    You may want to read a book on baseball.

We're talking about batted ball outcomes. A HR is not a ball in play.

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:52:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:45:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:43:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:40:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
I'll rephrase.  FIP pretends that every struck ball that doesn't clear the fence is the same.  Watch a game.  They aren't.

For a reason. The pitcher doesn't control whether or not a ball in play becomes a hit.

So, IOW, a 88 MPH fastball across the meat of the plate will only be struck as well as a 92 MPH slider that just nicks the corner of the plate?  Or will that 88 MPH fastball on the meat of the plate always be a homer?

Watch a game.

A homer isn't a ball in play. Watch a game.

You seem to be avoiding the question.  A ball has to be put in play in order to become a hit of any sort..  I might argue that the ball is in play once the pitcher takes the rubber with the ball.  Unless, of course, you think runners can steal when the ball is not in play.    You may want to read a book on baseball.

We're talking about batted ball outcomes. A HR is not a ball in play.

I know what I'm talking about.  You, on the other hand, apparently do not understand "ball in play". 

Read a book on baseball.

And, if I'm not mistaken, a homerun is an outcome of a batted ball.   Is it not?  When did that change?

A HR isn't a ball in play. I don't understand why you are arguing this point. HR aren't included in BABIP.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 10:56:00 AM (view original):
And, if I'm not mistaken, a homerun is an outcome of a batted ball.   Is it not?  When did that change?

Exactly. A HR is a batted ball outcome but not a ball in play.

Original question:

So, IOW, a 88 MPH fastball across the meat of the plate will only be struck as well as a 92 MPH slider that just nicks the corner of the plate?  Or will that 88 MPH fastball on the meat of the plate always be a homer?


Care to answer it or continue the discussion on "ball in play"?

Pitchers have control over their HR rate. They don't have control over what happens to a ball in play.

Actually, I know what you'd prefer to do.

The pitcher can control how well a ball is it.  Accept that and you'll recognize that FIP doesn't measure the effectiveness of a pitcher.

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:58:00 AM (view original):
A HR isn't a ball in play. I don't understand why you are arguing this point. HR aren't included in BABIP.

Are you saying that there is a substantial difference between a line drive that clears the fence by six inches and one that bangs off the wall six inches below the top?  The pitcher has control of one (because it's a HR and covered by FIP), but absolutely no influence on the other?

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 11:03:00 AM (view original):
Actually, I know what you'd prefer to do.

The pitcher can control how well a ball is it.  Accept that and you'll recognize that FIP doesn't measure the effectiveness of a pitcher.

A pitcher can control how well a ball is hit. They can't control whether or not that ball is caught.

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 11:02:00 AM (view original):
Pitchers have control over their HR rate. They don't have control over what happens to a ball in play.

So they can control the distance and trajectory of a struck ball but nothing else?   And only whether or not it goes over the fence?

Do you even vaguely realize how stupid that sounds? 

"PItchers can control the distance and trajectory of a ball but only if it will travel 400 feet or more.  They control nothing else."