Is Randy Johnson an outlier?  His BABIP is .295?  How come he wasn't able to get outs on balls in play at a rate much better than average?

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 2:13:00 PM (view original):

So this makes perfect sense to you?

In what world do all of a pitcher's balls in play go off the wall?  If that was the case, then yes, the pitcher is ******.  But that's not realistic.  Roy Halladay has a BABIP for his career of .295.  The guy is an awesome pitcher and may end up in the hall of fame.  Freddy Garcia has been above average but no where near Halladay.  His BABIP is .286.

Is Garcia better at inducing weakly hit balls in play? No.  Some combination of defense, luck, and park effects have contributed to Garcia allowing less hits on balls in play than Halladay.

You're saying that all balls that go over the wall are the pitchers responsibility.  But any hit balls in play that does not go over the wall are not.

How does that make any sense at all?

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Is Randy Johnson an outlier?  His BABIP is .295?  How come he wasn't able to get outs on balls in play at a rate much better than average?

One pitcher in the history of baseball can't be an outlier?    Isn't that the actual concept of an outlier?

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/23/2012 2:19:00 PM (view original):
ok, jrd...answer me this:

A dead pull lefty hitter is at the plate. Shift is on, with the plan for the pitcher to pitch the hitter inside and jam him, giving him little option but to hit it to the pull-side of the field.  Pitcher throws a fast ball that badly misses low and away. The hitter reaches out and strokes it the opposite way for a double off the left field wall. No fielder near it - who's fault is that?

Stop ignoring everything you can't logically respond to

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I hate to play this card because it's not necessarily the "right" way to go about things but it begs to be asked.

Did you play baseball at any level?
Did you play baseball when it became actual baseball?   Usually 13-14 because that when the giant isn't always the best player.

I only ask because you seem to fail to understand that it's harder to hit certain pitches in certain locations with any authority.   You may weakly tap a low and away slider to the1B if you're looking up and in.   Or put your bat on a knee-buckling curve.   But those will be easy to field.    Those swings are nothing like the one you'll take on 3-1 fastball down the pipe.   You may miss that one too but you stand a much better chance of putting good wood on it.    You're just hoping for luck on those other two swings and both of them were caused by the pitcher.

I played varsity baseball junior and senior year of high school.  P and 3b.

OK, good.

Were you never fooled on a pitch?   One where you had to make a last second adjustment just to get the bat on the ball?

Conversely, were you never looking Dead Red and got it?

And don't ignore this.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I hate to play this card because it's not necessarily the "right" way to go about things but it begs to be asked.

Did you play baseball at any level?
Did you play baseball when it became actual baseball?   Usually 13-14 because that when the giant isn't always the best player.

I only ask because you seem to fail to understand that it's harder to hit certain pitches in certain locations with any authority.   You may weakly tap a low and away slider to the1B if you're looking up and in.   Or put your bat on a knee-buckling curve.   But those will be easy to field.    Those swings are nothing like the one you'll take on 3-1 fastball down the pipe.   You may miss that one too but you stand a much better chance of putting good wood on it.    You're just hoping for luck on those other two swings and both of them were caused by the pitcher.

I played varsity baseball junior and senior year of high school.  P and 3b.

OK, good.

Were you never fooled on a pitch?   One where you had to make a last second adjustment just to get the bat on the ball?

Conversely, were you never looking Dead Red and got it?

Sure.  And there were plenty of times where I was fooled and the ball still got through a hole or fell in behind the 2nd baseman.  And there were times where I crushed it right at someone.  In both cases, the pitcher had no control over whether or not it became an out or a hit.

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Is Randy Johnson an outlier?  His BABIP is .295?  How come he wasn't able to get outs on balls in play at a rate much better than average?

Johnson relied on a straight, overpowering fastball. Not many guys could catch up with it - but when they did, it was going to go places.

And if a hitter crushes a ball right at a fielder, the pitcher is LUCKY. If that screamer finds a hole, it's not the fielder's fault.

On the field on any given play, there are 10 players out there(9 fielders+batter).

Who has the most control over the next play?   How much, percentage-wise, would you put on that control?   How much, percentage-wise, is just pure luck?

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I hate to play this card because it's not necessarily the "right" way to go about things but it begs to be asked.

Did you play baseball at any level?
Did you play baseball when it became actual baseball?   Usually 13-14 because that when the giant isn't always the best player.

I only ask because you seem to fail to understand that it's harder to hit certain pitches in certain locations with any authority.   You may weakly tap a low and away slider to the1B if you're looking up and in.   Or put your bat on a knee-buckling curve.   But those will be easy to field.    Those swings are nothing like the one you'll take on 3-1 fastball down the pipe.   You may miss that one too but you stand a much better chance of putting good wood on it.    You're just hoping for luck on those other two swings and both of them were caused by the pitcher.

I played varsity baseball junior and senior year of high school.  P and 3b.

OK, good.

Were you never fooled on a pitch?   One where you had to make a last second adjustment just to get the bat on the ball?

Conversely, were you never looking Dead Red and got it?

Sure.  And there were plenty of times where I was fooled and the ball still got through a hole or fell in behind the 2nd baseman.  And there were times where I crushed it right at someone.  In both cases, the pitcher had no control over whether or not it became an out or a hit.

I doubt there were "plenty of times".    IIRC, HS baseball seasons were 25-30 games.   Most likely, you got around 200 PA in high school.

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/23/2012 2:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/23/2012 2:19:00 PM (view original):
ok, jrd...answer me this:

A dead pull lefty hitter is at the plate. Shift is on, with the plan for the pitcher to pitch the hitter inside and jam him, giving him little option but to hit it to the pull-side of the field.  Pitcher throws a fast ball that badly misses low and away. The hitter reaches out and strokes it the opposite way for a double off the left field wall. No fielder near it - who's fault is that?

Stop ignoring everything you can't logically respond to

I'm guessing we won't get a response to this because jrd knows his answer would contradict everything he's been arguing in this thread.

Jesus f*cking chr*st.

This really is the twilight zone.  League average BABIP  is just south of .300.  Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez are four of the greatest pitchers of all time.  Their BABIPs are only a few percentage points below average.  If anyone could control BABIP, don't you think it'd be them?

In the 70's league average BABIP was lower, something like .275.  The great pitchers of that time were also usually right around it.

Outliers.

Yeah, jrd is making this much harder on himself than it has to be by insisting on such strong language.  HR, BB, and Ks aren't the only thing a pitcher controls, they are things they have the most control over.   It's not that pitchers don't have ANY control over whether a batted ball becomes a hit or an out if it doesn't go over the wall, but over time, the numbers suggest their control over it is much more limited than we might intuitively think.

And I go back to what I interjected earlier - since we've long since abandoned BA as the primary measure of a hitter's value, why would we still stop at BABIP when looking at the result of balls put in play?   Halladay can't manage to be consistently under league average in BABIP, but he does consistently outperform his FIP.  Could it be that the extent to which he keeps batters off balance and keeps them from squaring him up shows up more in how many extra base hits he gives up than in his BABIP?

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/23/2012 2:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/23/2012 2:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/23/2012 2:19:00 PM (view original):
ok, jrd...answer me this:

A dead pull lefty hitter is at the plate. Shift is on, with the plan for the pitcher to pitch the hitter inside and jam him, giving him little option but to hit it to the pull-side of the field.  Pitcher throws a fast ball that badly misses low and away. The hitter reaches out and strokes it the opposite way for a double off the left field wall. No fielder near it - who's fault is that?

Stop ignoring everything you can't logically respond to

I'm guessing we won't get a response to this because jrd knows his answer would contradict everything he's been arguing in this thread.

It's a f*cking one off scenario.  We're talking about trends spanning thousand of plate appearances. Yes, that one pitch is on the pitcher.  But the next inning when the SS is out of position and a weak groundball sneaks through, the world will be right again.

F*ckin retards.

FWIW, throwing strikeout pitchers out there will skew the stats.  We know they didn't throw no-hitters non-stop.   27 outs in a game.   If 10 are strikeouts, that leaves 17.    5 hits in a full game like that is .294.    A guy that gets 4 strikeouts can give up 6.7 hits per game and produce the same BABIP.

Let's not pretend that no one knows how it works.