Oh, c'mon, E.   Maybe he got better run support.  Just because a team averages 4.2 runs per game doesn't mean they score 4.2 runs every game.   There could be any number of reasons for a similar W/L record despite the disparity in team records. 

Posted by eschwartz67 on 2/24/2012 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 2/24/2012 10:25:00 AM (view original):
Hunter's career (1965 - 1979) through age 33:  224-166 W/L, 3449 IP, 3.26 ERA, 1.134 WHIP.

Carlton's career (1965 - 1979) through age 34: 225-160 W/L. 3485 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.225 WHIP

They were the same pitcher.  Then, Carlton pitched another 1732 IPs. 



Tec...   Being that I wanted to believe that Hunter was the equal of Carlton (which was my opinion until this morning when I looked up the real stats for them), your post is the most rational argument for Hunter being close to the equal (if not very equal) to Steve Carlton.  My question for you, is where in your thoughts on this do the fact that during Hunter's career, he played on many more high quality teams than did Carlton.  And it was not through the fault of Carlton.  He pitched amazingly well.  But the Cardinals of the 60s won 1 championship and the Phillies of the 70s won zero.  Hunter played on many champions with the A's and Yankees.  How does that factor in knowing that Carlton had a slightly better W/L record playing on vastly inferior teams? 

Posted by eschwartz67 on 2/24/2012 11:08:00 AM (view original):
OK.  I became Stat-MonkeyBoy.  I went to baseball-reference to try and back up my opinion that Catfish Hunter was every bit as good as Steve Carlton other than longevity.  Being a Mets fan, I HATED Steve Carlton.  He killed us.  Very similar to my hatred of Dan Marino because of his exploits against my beloved Jets.  Unfortunately, what I found out was....  Carlton was not only better, but it is difficult to make an argument for Hunter.  He is close to Carlton in many stats.  But better in none.  And he isn't close to Carlton in the rest of the stats (even dropping off the last 1000 or so innings from Carlton).

Here is what I found.....

• In Hunter's best 5 seasons, he was 111-49 (113-117 in his other seasons combined) and won 1 Cy Young. In Carlton's best 5 seasons, he was 117-47 and won 4 Cy Youngs.
• Hunter had 5 seasons of 110+ Adjusted ERA seasons.  Carlton had 12
• Hunter had 3 seasons of more than a 2.5/1 K/BB ratio.  Carlton had 8
• Hunter had 3 top 10 ERA seasons.  Carlton had 8
• Hunter had 7 seasons where he was top 10 in CGs.  Carlton had 15.
• Hunter had 6 seasons where he was top 10 in SOs.  Carlton had 11.
• Hunter had only 3 seasons where he was top 10 in WAR/pitcher.  Carlton had 7.
• Hunter's 10 most similar pitchers to him were Tiant, Pappas, Hershiser, Vida Blue, Kevin Brown, Welch, Drysdale, Jim Perry, Pierce & Rick Reuschel.  1 of which is in the HOF (Drysdale)
• Carlton's 10 most similar pitchers to him were Sutton, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Blyleven, Spahn, Wynn, Seaver, Clemens, Maddux & Glavine.  All of whom are either in the HOF or shoo-ins for it (other than maybe Clemens because of PEDs).
• Hunter's HOF Standards number (the one less affected by longevity) is 42 while an average HOFer is 50.  Carlton's is 58.

I think the most telling of all that were the similar pitchers by baseball-reference algorithms.  All 10 of the most similar pitchers to Carlton are HOFers, and only 1 of the most similar 10 to Hunter were HOFers.  The similarities are based on metrics, not W/L.  So, had Hunter not been on the dominant A's and then the 75 Yankees and did not compile those huge win totals from 1971-1975, he likely would not be a HOFer based on his other numbers.  Carlton would.

Compelling argument.

Hunter's better.

Guess it's a draw.

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/24/2012 3:37:00 PM (view original):
It's a good thing for jrd that E showed up. Now he can just quote E's posts to try and make his point, instead of sounding like a fool all the time.

Posted by jrd_x on 2/24/2012 3:40:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/24/2012 3:37:00 PM (view original):
It's a good thing for jrd that E showed up. Now he can just quote E's posts to try and make his point, instead of sounding like a fool all the time.

Hilarious from the guy arguing with absolutely no evidence to back him up.

Given the choice would you rather have Hunter's career or Carlton's?

Posted by eschwartz67 on 2/24/2012 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 2/24/2012 10:25:00 AM (view original):
Hunter's career (1965 - 1979) through age 33:  224-166 W/L, 3449 IP, 3.26 ERA, 1.134 WHIP.

Carlton's career (1965 - 1979) through age 34: 225-160 W/L. 3485 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.225 WHIP

They were the same pitcher.  Then, Carlton pitched another 1732 IPs. 



Tec...   Being that I wanted to believe that Hunter was the equal of Carlton (which was my opinion until this morning when I looked up the real stats for them), your post is the most rational argument for Hunter being close to the equal (if not very equal) to Steve Carlton.  My question for you, is where in your thoughts on this do the fact that during Hunter's career, he played on many more high quality teams than did Carlton.  And it was not through the fault of Carlton.  He pitched amazingly well.  But the Cardinals of the 60s won 1 championship and the Phillies of the 70s won zero.  Hunter played on many champions with the A's and Yankees.  How does that factor in knowing that Carlton had a slightly better W/L record playing on vastly inferior teams? 

Excellent question.  Glad you made me look this up because I didn't realize what I was about to find.

It's actually a misperception that Calrton played on vastly inferior teams.  Hunter started with Kansas City in 1965, and they were pretty horrendous in the mid to late 60's.  Carlton started with the Cardinals who were pretty good back then.  Carlton only really played on two "bad" teams - the '72 and '73 Phillies, while Hunter played on three bad teams - the '65, '66 and '67 Kansas City A's.

When you add up the W/L records of the teams they played on during the '65 through '79 seasons, they're actually very close:

Carlton (Cardinals '65 through '71, Phillies '72 through '79): 1286-1136 (.531 winning percentage) - 5 post-season teams
Hunter (Athletics '65 through '74, Yankees '75 through '79): 1301-1112 (.539 winning percentage) - 7 post-season teams

So they had very similar records and stats during the '65 through '79 periods, playing on compositely similarly successful teams.

Posted by jrd_x on 2/24/2012 3:53:00 PM (view original):
Uh yeah if he had the better career he was the better pitcher.