Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic

1899_spiders
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Posted by tecwrg on 2/27/2012 7:50:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 2/27/2012 6:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 2/27/2012 6:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 2/27/2012 6:26:00 PM (view original):
No, but lets look at them side by side. 

Carlton at 31:
252 IP
3.13 ERA
114 ERA+
2.93 FIP
1.172 WHIP
3.7 WAR

Hunter at 31:
143 IP
4.71 ERA
98 ERA+
5.69 FIP
1.284 WHIP
-0.6 WAR

Oh goodie!  Can I play that game too?

Carlton at 28:
293 IP
3.90 ERA
97 ERA+
4.12 FIP
1.384 WHIP
2.3 WAR

Hunter at 28:
318 IP
2.49 ERA
134 ERA+
3.75 FIP
0.986 WHIP
6.4 WAR
. . . and a CYA for Hunter.

You are a friggin' retard for wanting to play the "cherry picking" game.
Sweet.  Now that we're playing the "compare Hunter's best year to Carlton's" game, using those stats: 

Pitcher    IP      ERA   ERA+    FIP    WHIP     WAR
Carlton   346    1.97   182     2.01    0.993     12.2
Hunter    318    2.49   134     3.75    0.986       6.4

Wow.  I like that Carlton steak a lot better than that Hunter steak.
  

Awesome.  Let's compare other pitchers best seasons:

Mark Fidrych  250 IP, 2.34 ERA, 159 ERA+, 3.68 FIP, 1.079 WHIP, 8.5 WAR
Bert Blyleven  245 IP, 2.87 ERA, 144 ERA+, 3.73 FIP, 1.135 WHIP, 6.2 WAR

Who had the better career?

Blyleven's best season was in 1973, and it's better than Fidrych's best. Blyleven led all AL players in WAR with 9.2. The next closest was Reggie Jackson at 8.1. His 158 ERA+ in 325 IP is a lot more impressive than Fidrych's 159 in 250 IP, and makes Fidrych's lower ERA (2.34 to 2.52) irrelevant. Blyleven's FIP*, for what it's worth, was 2.32 that year, which trounces Fidrych's. Here's how to mock the better year argument.

Awesome. Let's compare other pitchers best seasons:

Dwight Gooden 276 2/3 IP, 1.53 ERA, 229 ERA+, 0.965 WHIP, 11.7 WAR

Warren Spahn 265 2/3 IP, 2.10 ERA, 188 ERA+, 1.058 WHIP, 9.4 WAR

Who had the better career?

See?

* FIP is not an advanced metric. There are defense independent pitching stats that incorporate things like line drive and fly ball percentage that can be considered advanced, but the point of FIP is that it is simple. It is a back of the envelope number that, on average, successfully predicts future ERA better than regular ERA does. It is not intended to capture every aspect of pitching, but merely to provide an easy, but superior measure of pitcher performance. And it does that. And like ERA, FIP should be adjusted for context. Fan Graphs has FIP- available along with ERA-, each being a flip of how ERA+ and FIP+ are calculated. Blyleven's FIP- in 1973 was 59. Fidrych's in 1976 was 85.
2/27/2012 11:01 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/27/2012 8:12:00 PM (view original):
126 position players have taken the mound since 1970.  They have pitched 202 innings.  They have an ERA of 7.64.  They have a BABIP of .296.
Don't forget this mike
2/27/2012 11:31 PM
MikeT23
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So we can make assumptions on professional athletes based on 202 innings?    I bet my BABIP would be a bit higher. 

2/28/2012 8:09 AM
jrd_x
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Well yeah we can. They have an ERA over 7 but a BABIP at league average. Even guys who aren't pitchers, who give up runs at roughly twice league average, still only allow 3 out of 10 balls in play as hits.
2/28/2012 9:01 AM
tecwrg
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Posted by tecwrg on 2/27/2012 8:13:00 PM (view original):
Here's another hypothitical for you.  Based on real numbers by two different pitchers.

Player A: 3621 IP, 3.42 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.48 FIP, 1.191 WHIP, .243 OAV, .299 OBP, .390 SLG, .689 OPS
Player B: 3659 IP, 3.23 ERA, 104 ERA+, 3.91 FIP, 1.287 WHIP, .249 OAV, .317 OBP, .410 SLG, .728 OPS

The last four items (OAV, OBP, SLG, OPS) were for hitters against that pitcher.

Who's the better pitcher? 
This?
2/28/2012 9:18 AM
jrd_x
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You didn't answer my question. Does "based on" mean you changed them or the years aren't consecutive?
2/28/2012 9:24 AM
Jtpsops
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I think it's a very safe bet that when a position player takes the mound:

1) It's a blowout - and their team's losing
2) They're no longer facing starters
3) Hitters are swinging at the first thing they see to get the hell out of there
4) Most position players, at very least, have a good fastball. If you can throw 90MPH over the plate, you're going to get some outs. Not to mention that most position players who take the mound have some kind of pitching background. Otherwise they're likely not up there.
2/28/2012 11:18 AM
jrd_x
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Posted by Jtpsops on 2/28/2012 11:19:00 AM (view original):
I think it's a very safe bet that when a position player takes the mound:

1) It's a blowout - and their team's losing
2) They're no longer facing starters
3) Hitters are swinging at the first thing they see to get the hell out of there
4) Most position players, at very least, have a good fastball. If you can throw 90MPH over the plate, you're going to get some outs. Not to mention that most position players who take the mound have some kind of pitching background. Otherwise they're likely not up there.
But they still allow over 7 runs per 9 innings, so the other team is having a ton of success, starters or not.  And still making outs on 7 out of 10 balls in play.  

2/28/2012 11:30 AM
Jtpsops
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I'll take you back to Al Cheez's example, with Halladay. BABIP does depend on defense, and you're right that a pitcher can't physically place the ball in a fielder's glove, but a pitcher does have control over where/how hard a ball is hit. A lot of ground balls on the IF is going to result in a few singles - but a pitcher getting hit hard could give up the same amount of hits on deep fly balls/line drives, which leads to more runs. Good pitchers don't get squared up on often.
2/28/2012 12:13 PM
jrd_x
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Ok.  What's your point?
2/28/2012 12:18 PM
Jtpsops
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That 30% of the field isn't covered by a fielder, and thus if a pitcher allows it to be hit there, it's on him? That fielder's are responsible for what's hit to them regardless of how hard/who's pitching, and pitchers are responsible for the rest?

Good pitchers get hitters to put the ball where either a fielder will get it, or if it sneaks through the damage will be minimized. In a very literal sense, no, the pitcher has no control on if the fielder fields the ball, but he has a lot of control over where the ball's hit, and if it becomes a hit.

But given that fielders all play the same positions, in (pretty much) the same place on the field for every team, you'd expect a fairly even BABIP across all pitchers.

2/28/2012 12:44 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by Jtpsops on 2/28/2012 12:44:00 PM (view original):

That 30% of the field isn't covered by a fielder, and thus if a pitcher allows it to be hit there, it's on him? That fielder's are responsible for what's hit to them regardless of how hard/who's pitching, and pitchers are responsible for the rest?

Good pitchers get hitters to put the ball where either a fielder will get it, or if it sneaks through the damage will be minimized. In a very literal sense, no, the pitcher has no control on if the fielder fields the ball, but he has a lot of control over where the ball's hit, and if it becomes a hit.

But given that fielders all play the same positions, in (pretty much) the same place on the field for every team, you'd expect a fairly even BABIP across all pitchers.

Progress.

You can expect a fairly even BABIP across all pitchers.  Pitchers of varying degrees of skill are able to get results better than league average.  Pitchers of hall of fame quality often have career BABIPs around league average.  Position players, giving up 7+ earned runs per 9, have a league average BABIP.

Is BABIP a skill or is it a product of things outside a pitcher's control?
2/28/2012 1:17 PM
eschwartz67
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The one caveat to your BABIP is this....  it does not include HRs as a BIP.  That would likely be why an infielder and a HOF pitcher have way different ERAs and WHIPs but similar BABIPs.  Many of the BIP wind up in the stands and are never counted as BIP for BABIP.  I bet the FIP of an infielder sucks though.
2/28/2012 1:22 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by eschwartz67 on 2/28/2012 1:22:00 PM (view original):
The one caveat to your BABIP is this....  it does not include HRs as a BIP.  That would likely be why an infielder and a HOF pitcher have way different ERAs and WHIPs but similar BABIPs.  Many of the BIP wind up in the stands and are never counted as BIP for BABIP.  I bet the FIP of an infielder sucks though.
Home runs aren't in play.
2/28/2012 1:26 PM
Jtpsops
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My point is, BABIP is a useless stat - as has been stated numerous times over the last 500 pages.
2/28/2012 2:31 PM
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