Season 85 D3 Topic

Are you ready for this season!!!  It should be another good one.  Last season the championship game included two 3 seeds in Wisconsin Stevens Point and Utica.  Ricosuave21 and his Wisky team winning his third title there.
 
Looking at this season, we already have a big surprise in CSU Eastbay as the WIS #2.  Surprising, no it’s a talented squad and WIS rankings are never super accurate, but it is a sim team, a bit disappointing for matt58vt as if he had stuck around he would def be one of the better teams this season

And here we go with the annual final four predictions:

Oglethorpe – GuerillaZen1
 
84
22-9
6-2
12-6
4-1
12-4
 
22
20
A+
CT Champion
NT (2nd Round)
 
2 seasons removed from a dominant NC run, GZ loads up again with his heavy sr/so class, and this one looks like another NC team.  2 big time rebounders in the fb/press will give GZ a huge rebounding advantage in most games.  The guards are no slack either with 1 elite perimeter threat which will be tough to stop and another solid spd/per/bh guard.  GZ finally got over the slight underachievement in the postseason(granted S16’s are very nice), but GZ showed his full ability and potential to compete for NC every other season.
 
Predicted record 24-2 (14-2) Non conf is a breeze and it doesn’t look like anyone in conf will be able to put up a huge fight against GZ.

Cal Tech – piman314
 
84
25-5
8-0
14-4
3-1
15-1
16
11
29
A+
Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (1st Round)
 
The talent is clearly there, last season the depth wasn’t, a huge reason for their early exit.  They will still be sporting 5(technically 6) sophomores, but by NT time with B+ IQ’s they should be dangerous for the ratings their players have, just some amazing elite ath, spd, and defense.  Piman314 will win a NC in phelan, however this will be another season just short of the golden prize.  The depth again much better than before will eventually become a problem against a press team with elite depth ala Oglethorpe.

Predicted record 25-1 (15-1) an easy schedule (however an inflated rpi/sos due to piman’s scheduling ability) means the team standing in the way of an undefeated season is Colorado a potential final four team as well.

Dallas – duece_duece
 
84
31-2
9-0
17-0
5-2
16-0
4
4
17
A+
Conf Champion
NT At-large Bid
NT (Elite 8)

Always a great pick to make a run year in and out. Duece always has a top team in the nation.  Marcum will be a scoring machine in the triangle.  3 big rebounders to collect any misses.  Developing a PG is key and if they can’t show one developing they might be the first go be exchanged out at the midseason update.
 
Predicted Record 23-3 (14-2) Colorado gets the early non-conf win and then Centre and Southwestern grab wins.

Colorado – pknock1215
 
84
30-3
10-1
15-0
5-2
16-0
6
8
22
A+
Conf Champion
NT At-large Bid
NT (Elite 8)
 
Yes the team that has been mentioned already in the past teams non-conference slates will not disappoint and make a final four run.  They get a few early tests in Menlo, Yeshiva, and Dallas.  A very talented team great ath/spd/def combo and some really talented big men, I like the high spd PF and elite ath C combo.  Pknock is looking to be back on track for title contention after a few seasons of early exits has now gotten back to the S16 and E8.  If they can develop a per game it makes them that much more deadly and Fischer looks like he has the potential to be that guy.
 
Predicted record 25-2 (15-1)  I’ve already stated they would be Yeshiva and Dallas, I think Menlo gets the game 1 win, and I will go with a surprise “upset” of CSU Eastbay sim coach bothering Colorado.  Still 25-2 and really only 3-4 games a loss is remotely considerable.

If i was to pick my NC game it would be Oglethorpe verse Cal Tech in a rematch from 2 seasons ago, results are the same with GZ adding another NC to his resume.
 
Personally I had some expectations going in, then my Cal Tech exhibition shattered that, I guess I’d aim for another S16, but would be happy with a 2nd round appearance.  I think it might depend on my low WE players Ladabie is a max per and hopefully he reaches that come CT and NT time.  I think I’m looking at 9-1 in non-conf and 8-8 in conference play putting me around 17-9 which isn’t too shabby, and that’s a low guesstimate for conf play.

P.S. Never too early for a shameless plug to the USA South with 1 opening in Ferrum we could really use that last spot filled!

Should be a great season, enjoy!
8/4/2015 1:57 AM
thought there was an off day between non conf, will get this done before the next shifts go
8/9/2015 7:10 AM
You do a sensational job with this and I look forward to every time it comes out.  Thank you.
8/9/2015 8:50 AM
Thanks piman!

A little late but here are the "midseason reports"

It looks like they're a few more teams to consider might not be as closed off as I thought it was going to be.

Right now Olgethorpe is leading the nation in rpi at .7176 and two other teams are above that .7 mark right now with Augustana and Cal Tech.

The USA South is leading the conferences in rpi(granted pretty low for the standards there) as well as having 3 of the top 5 rpi's(1,4,5).

Looking at the projection report its heavy USA South however the overall number 1 seed is Cal Tech 11-0(3/5) followed by Greensboro 10-1(4/22), La Grange 12-0 (5/31), and Oglethorpe 11-1 (1/8) who has been underseeded compared to the other USA South teams.  Augustana is right behind at 8-2 and the #2 RPI and #1 SOS.

Now the check up on the final four predictions and any changes:

Oglethorpe 11-1 RPI 1 SOS 8

Best win would be Catholic, not too hard a schedule actually looking at it.  A bit of a surprising loss against Upper Iowa didn't think of that.  The upcoming Greensboro game will show USA South supremacy possibly and a closer look at both of the teams.  Then the season closes with 2 straight games against my La Grange team for the division crown as well as some more elite games showing if both, one, or neither are still deep tourney threats.

Pick is still in check.  Even with the surprising loss I think Oglethorpe makes a nice run through the USA South gauntlent and recieves a 1 seed.  Talent is there for a NC.

Cal Tech 11-0 RPI 3 SOS 15

Best win would be the exhibition beat down they handed me, piman is probably the best D3 scheduler in Phelan always having a top rpi/sos and rarely playing humans at all in the season.  As usually the Colorado game is very important and will be the telling game for Cal Tech this season.

Pick is staying and I look forward to the Oglethorpe/Cal Tech NC rematch.

Dallas 12-0 RPI 8 SOS 85

Great wins against Colorado and Chestnut Hill duece has another elite team this season and like everyone else has an upcoming telling game with Centre up next for the early University title bragging rights.  Marcum is a scoring machine like expected

Pick staying the same as well.

Colorado 9-3 RPI 9 SOS 11

An annoying sim upset and then deep tourney preview games against Yeshiva and Dallas, both losses.  The Menlo win is huge and with a bunch of sophomores that will develop the team will become stronger.

I would like to keep the pick still, but they would be the least surprising to not make it of the group.

Looking at some other teams geared up for a F4 run are Augustana who played a balls to the wall non-conf and proved the talent as well as Yeshiva.  Greensboro and La Grange have talent, but will have to prove themselves in conf play before too much can be said of them.  scaturo has the zone team of the season in Lewis and Clark and has beaten 5 big time coaches.  Menlo only lost once to Colorado and has all of those juniors to be worried about.  Centre and Utica are elite time coaches and always a big threat to make a deep run.

Might make a tier ranking of #1 Expected NC contenders then F4/E8 or NC run, Elite coaches always threatening...


8/9/2015 4:31 PM
Thanks for the all the time and effort you put into these posts theOnlyis (and to everyone else who contributes)! It makes things much more interesting and enjoyable.

The folks around here at Menlo get a little cranky when we go a few years without an NT Championship. Just sayin'  
8/10/2015 7:37 PM
Only, at the request of the fine people of Irving, TX and also the faithful fans of Dallas basketball all around this great nation they have asked me to request you stop setting the bar so high for this forsaken team. After your recent predictions they have been subject to 2 losses in which they **** down their legs and now the mood around campus is disheartening to say the least. The promising young sophomore guard James McConahay even had to be talked down (by his fine *** girlfriend and with the assistance of local authorities) from the ledge of his campus fraternity house earlier this evening after his second woeful performance of the day, his combined 3 for 15 from behind he arc was criticized by sports analysts across the country as a large factor in the team's recent lack of success. The poor boy felt overly responsible for the losses which culminated into him considering taking his life over the events!! Although as coach I still believe we are contenders to make a deep tournament run it would make my job a lot easier and settle the minds of the fans and players if you would just make a new prediction with them being a long shot to get out of the second round and possibly label them as "underachievers" who will have to dig deep within themselves to get back the on the court play they maintained through the non confernce portion of the season. Thanks, Coach duece_duece
8/11/2015 2:02 AM
Bracket posted, keeping Cal Tech and Oglethorpe NC rematch from 2 seasons ago, with the same result of Oglethorpe being crowned National Champs.  Kind of hard to pick upsets this year didn't see too many from the brackets.  I think Endicott(6 seed), NCWC(12 seed), and Anderson(6 seed) getting to the S16 are my "biggest" upsets.
8/19/2015 9:48 PM
Sewanee making a nice run, and at some point I will stop betting against aejones coming off a 12 point win over 1 seed Menlo.
8/21/2015 11:21 AM
Well third time is the charm for Greensboro as they finally knock off Oglethorpe on the 3rd and most important attempt.  Now the championship match is set between Greensboro and Cal Tech
8/22/2015 12:41 PM
Well you nailed your final four, the0nlyis...but struck out on the final two.
8/23/2015 2:11 AM
Posted by pepwaves on 8/23/2015 2:11:00 AM (view original):
Well you nailed your final four, the0nlyis...but struck out on the final two.
I'll take it, one of my most accurate brackets lol.

Congrats to Cal Tech amazing season
8/23/2015 11:22 AM
Hey guys hopefully we can make sure the USA South goes into the season at full strength we have 3 spots open in CNU, Chowan, and PBAU!!!
8/24/2015 10:49 AM
Season 85 D3 Topic

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