i agree that there are plenty of IFs, but as an investor I would see the situation like this:

Having the 3 1st rounders would lessen the payroll by quite a fair margin, and would give the team potentially 3 serviceable NHL players in return who are cheap and would be presumably good additions to the team in 3-4 seasons. The risk here is that you're pretty much wasting the remaining years of St.Louis and Lecavalier waiting for those picks to be NHL ready, IF they ever are. That's quite a gamble.

In addition...losing Stamkos would not only impact the team on the ice, but the moneys lost in merchandising, not to mention the PR nightmare that would ensue, and potential impact on the season ticket holder base and general ticket sales would be felt, and I think would have a much greater financial impact than simply paying to keep him.

Basically:
Keeping Stamkos = success on the ice, more merchandise sales, player around which to build a ticket sales drive.
Losing Stamkos = ~10 million less on the payroll, less merchandise sales, (presumably) jaded fan base, less ticket sales.

Don't forget - they still need to sign Purcell this season and Victor Hedman will be looking for a big contract (again, front-loaded) next season as an RFA.

Agree with the PR mess (but then again they aren't filling the seats as is) - is it really worth paying $10-12 mil next season with that being the case or will fans be okay with 4 first rounders and being able to re-sign hedman and bring in lower priced but solid FAs? By signing stamkos for an eternity - will TBL ever be able to sign 'and hold onto' a strong supporting cast if he is sucking up so much money?

Does Stamkos even want to be on the Lightning considering the financial situation they are in? Thats probably the biggest question that no one can answer. The team could be moved? They may not be able to afford bigtime players to help win the cup? These questions surely must cross his mind.

Indeed...another thing to consider is the taxes. If Stamkos gets 8 million in TB, is that not the same as getting 10 in Philly?

ha. possibly ;)

Very simply, IF TB does not keep Stamkos at ANY cost, why would a TB spectator buy a ticket to a TB game?

To run a business under such conditions would be to admit that you cannot be competitive in that business.

It's one thing to say an older veteran is overvalued by the market, or a second-liner is overvalued by the market.  Stamkos is, very clearly, an elite player, a cornerstone.

If you say "our team cannot afford to invest in a cornerstone", why would I ever buy a ticket?

Be careful throwing the term "elite" around.

ha ha. stamkos IS elite. Even if Toews wanted to he couldn't score 95 goals in 2 seasons.

Posted by jiml60 on 6/29/2011 12:45:00 PM (view original):
Be careful throwing the term "elite" around.

By today's standards.  Frankly the only ones I consider worthy in a truer sense of the word are Crosby and Toews.

Posted by moy23 on 6/29/2011 1:55:00 PM (view original):
ha ha. stamkos IS elite. Even if Toews wanted to he couldn't score 95 goals in 2 seasons.

Whoa whoa whoa...before we call Stamkos elite, let's consider a couple of things:

1. He didn't do much to help his team in the playoffs when the going got tough.
2. Only Jarome Iginla and Joe Thornton have scored more points in the 2000's than Marian Hossa. Are any of those guys elite players? Goals and points aren't the only thing that make a player "elite".
3. If he was "elite", would he not have been on Team Canada?

He's on his way to perhaps being an elite player, but right now I don't consider him any more elite than Toews or Kane. He's a top end goal scorer. That's it for now.

So we can all at least agree that Stamkos will be overpaid... by someone.

Posted by andru2797 on 6/29/2011 2:02:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 6/29/2011 1:55:00 PM (view original):
ha ha. stamkos IS elite. Even if Toews wanted to he couldn't score 95 goals in 2 seasons.

Whoa whoa whoa...before we call Stamkos elite, let's consider a couple of things:

1. He didn't do much to help his team in the playoffs when the going got tough.
2. Only Jarome Iginla and Joe Thornton have scored more points in the 2000's than Marian Hossa. Are any of those guys elite players? Goals and points aren't the only thing that make a player "elite".
3. If he was "elite", would he not have been on Team Canada?

He's on his way to perhaps being an elite player, but right now I don't consider him any more elite than Toews or Kane. He's a top end goal scorer. That's it for now.

did I mention - Stammer just turned 21

Posted by moy23 on 6/29/2011 2:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by andru2797 on 6/29/2011 2:02:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 6/29/2011 1:55:00 PM (view original):
ha ha. stamkos IS elite. Even if Toews wanted to he couldn't score 95 goals in 2 seasons.

Whoa whoa whoa...before we call Stamkos elite, let's consider a couple of things:

1. He didn't do much to help his team in the playoffs when the going got tough.
2. Only Jarome Iginla and Joe Thornton have scored more points in the 2000's than Marian Hossa. Are any of those guys elite players? Goals and points aren't the only thing that make a player "elite".
3. If he was "elite", would he not have been on Team Canada?

He's on his way to perhaps being an elite player, but right now I don't consider him any more elite than Toews or Kane. He's a top end goal scorer. That's it for now.

did I mention - Stammer just turned 21

If youth was not an acceptable excuse for Toews, it isn't for Stammer either. It could be argued that Toews had accomplished more at 21 than Stamkos has.

In other news, Tim Sassone and Chris Kuc are tweeting that the Hawks' first target in UFA could be Jan Hejda. Interesting choice. Big, stay at home defenseman could be the perfect partner for Hjalmarsson.

there it is. Two different Philly bloggers/beatwriters confirming that Flyers are considering offering $115 mil for 12 years ($9.58 AAV) w/ a full NMC. If that doesn't spell elite - I don't know what does.

Posted by moy23 on 6/29/2011 2:57:00 PM (view original):
there it is. Two different Philly bloggers/beatwriters confirming that Flyers are considering offering $115 mil for 12 years ($9.58 AAV) w/ a full NMC. If that doesn't spell elite - I don't know what does.

Cmon moy...if a big contract makes an elite player, then Brian Campbell, Rick DiPietro, Chris Drury and Scott Gomez are all elite players as well.

Every argument you made against Toews can be made against Stammer in different ways.

Hedja would be a solid fit at the right price. I could see him and Hjalmarsson being a good pairing