Today's PM round, my six teams managed a combined 7 runs scored.

My teams are a combined 30 games under .500 in 1-run games.  This entire round has been a cruel joke.

Projected Standings thru Jan. 18

PreRank	Name	60M	80M	NoCap	90M	100M	110M	Winning%	ProjWins	Plyf Tms	Bonus	Rd 2	Rd 1	TOTAL
----------	-----------------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	--------	----------	----------	----------	----------	----------	----------
2	discodemo	89	96	91	91	78	89	0.563	548	4	54	602	675	940
3	WaitNSee	86	107	92	83	87	76	0.560	544	5	68	612	623	923
13	jbohrman	94	88	75	83	81	87	0.536	521	4	54	575	616	883
21	jmissirlis	91	93	72	84	76	91	0.535	520	4	54	574	580	864
1	brianjw	81	82	78	85	81	80	0.514	499	1	14	513	677	851
12	bardin	77	71	87	64	91	82	0.498	484	3	41	525	616	833
4	schwarze	81	83	72	83	86	87	0.519	504	2	27	531	602	832
7	yankeeso7	83	70	97	80	74	77	0.507	493	2	27	520	619	830
6	ybjsports	76	86	72	69	77	86	0.492	478	2	27	505	639	825
31	contrarian23	74	87	78	76	91	76	0.508	494	2	27	521	580	811
16	buddhagamer	77	90	78	85	77	73	0.506	492	2	27	519	579	809
5	mildnhazy	74	78	65	79	81	85	0.487	474	2	27	501	605	804
75	rickysdad44	81	65	83	85	68	75	0.482	469	2	27	496	610	801
11	rbow923	81	81	73	81	90	76	0.508	494	1	14	508	577	796
18	crystalao	80	78	83	72	95	67	0.501	487	2	27	514	561	795
9	dougpalm	75	77	84	66	85	73	0.485	472	2	27	499	585	792
43	sford	85	85	82	79	60	82	0.499	485	1	14	499	583	790
45	rmdriskill	82	75	71	100	68	83	0.505	491	1	14	505	562	786
19	alleyviper	75	69	83	78	71	83	0.484	471	2	27	498	568	782
14	jjgreen14	90	70	71	68	69	76	0.468	455	1	14	469	608	773
17	mpitt76	78	70	67	71	91	69	0.470	457	1	14	471	594	768
76	Jdh34	59	78	84	73	75	75	0.468	455	1	14	469	582	760
44	mllama54	68	78	74	67	73	75	0.459	446	0	0	446	618	755
60	calhoop	83	63	72	82	59	61	0.443	431	1	14	445	573	731

     

Record in 1-run games...

Name	60M	80M	NoCap	90M	100M	110M	Total	Win%
-----------------	------------	------------	------------	------------	------------	------------	--------------	------------
WaitNSee	33-21	31-18	28-13	22-16	27-27	18-24	159-119	0.572
jjgreen14	32-19	24-26	22-12	18-26	17-17	25-9	138-109	0.559
discodemo	20-25	25-17	22-17	31-21	27-24	29-22	154-126	0.550
jbohrman	21-17	34-25	19-25	24-25	26-13	22-17	146-122	0.545
dougpalm	36-27	27-31	21-20	28-28	26-18	20-21	158-145	0.521
sford	29-28	31-26	25-15	24-29	19-29	28-21	156-148	0.513
yankeeso7	27-18	25-29	29-15	27-24	12-24	20-23	140-133	0.513
contrarian23	19-22	21-23	18-18	34-32	27-19	19-18	138-132	0.511
schwarze	30-22	26-16	17-25	17-18	19-25	19-21	128-127	0.502
rmdriskill	22-24	24-26	24-28	29-19	29-30	19-19	147-146	0.502
jmissirlis	30-21	28-30	24-27	25-21	23-21	18-27	148-147	0.502
bardin	25-26	24-26	24-21	22-35	30-24	19-14	144-146	0.497
buddhagamer	31-35	26-19	20-19	25-27	18-22	23-23	143-145	0.497
mpitt76	26-26	22-28	17-24	22-21	30-23	21-18	138-140	0.496
alleyviper	17-30	25-22	23-18	26-22	21-31	25-16	137-139	0.496
calhoop	20-15	25-21	20-13	23-19	14-31	16-22	118-121	0.494
crystalao	26-24	19-28	36-22	25-24	25-26	17-29	148-153	0.492
brianjw	23-21	28-22	17-30	23-21	20-16	20-28	131-138	0.487
rickysdad44	36-24	24-35	16-24	29-29	27-29	23-25	155-166	0.483
mllama54	20-29	19-25	19-21	22-30	28-19	25-23	133-147	0.475
Jdh34	22-32	22-22	19-23	19-26	28-27	22-19	132-149	0.470
ybjsports	28-39	27-33	16-21	20-20	15-21	20-16	126-150	0.457
mildnhazy	19-35	28-23	14-28	23-26	20-23	19-18	123-153	0.446
rbow923	19-31	20-34	14-25	25-24	29-10	15-29	122-153	0.444

Using the Expected Win%, I calculated each team's total expected wins, and compared to actual wins.  The following table shows the Actual Wins minus Expected Wins.  Negative = Unlucky.  The table is sorted by total expected wins.

Name	60M	80M	NoCap	90M	100M	110M	Total	ExpWins
-----------------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	------------	------------
discodemo	-4.9	7.5	2.9	10.6	-6.0	6.3	16.4	517.6
schwarze	-4.3	1.9	-0.4	-3.5	-5.2	-4.4	-15.9	507.9
rbow923	-7.5	-8.4	-4.4	-4.9	6.3	-4.5	-23.4	505.4
brianjw	-2.2	-2.6	-8.8	-1.5	0.9	-3.2	-17.4	504.4
jbohrman	1.5	1.3	-2.1	-1.8	5.0	0.5	4.4	503.6
jmissirlis	12.4	0.5	-0.4	1.6	0.5	-10.9	3.7	503.3
WaitNSee	6.3	7.8	6.7	8.1	-0.4	-0.8	27.8	503.2
sford	-1.9	2.9	2.7	-6.4	-4.2	-5.6	-12.5	485.5
ybjsports	-6.7	-8.1	-0.7	0.7	-4.2	7.0	-11.9	477.9
crystalao	6.6	-0.1	1.7	-1.2	-0.5	-9.0	-2.5	477.5
mildnhazy	0.4	-2.8	-5.3	-1.1	1.6	-5.9	-13.2	475.2
rmdriskill	1.4	1.9	-1.2	1.9	-5.5	5.4	3.9	475.1
buddhagamer	-3.2	6.6	1.2	-3.7	3.4	1.6	5.9	474.1
yankeeso7	8.8	1.0	4.7	1.3	-12.0	5.1	8.9	472.1
mpitt76	-7.9	-10.2	-5.8	-0.6	-0.2	0.1	-24.7	470.7
dougpalm	6.8	-10.4	0.2	0.4	-3.1	-4.2	-10.3	470.3
rickysdad44	4.2	-1.6	-7.9	-4.6	0.3	-2.7	-12.3	469.3
bardin	2.0	1.6	0.8	-3.8	4.0	5.9	10.4	461.6
alleyviper	-2.8	-3.3	2.5	0.9	-5.3	6.5	-1.5	460.5
Jdh34	-6.0	-9.0	-0.6	2.5	2.2	1.7	-9.3	453.3
contrarian23	10.2	20.0	-3.2	-3.6	11.7	3.3	38.4	443.6
mllama54	-10.7	-4.4	4.4	0.4	4.1	1.8	-4.3	439.3
jjgreen14	-1.8	3.6	1.1	4.7	7.0	4.7	19.3	424.7
calhoop	-1.3	-0.7	8.7	0.2	-3.0	1.2	5.1	414.9

schwarze, thanks again for running an amazing tournament.  It can't be said often (or effusively) enough.

This is THE highlight of the year for me on this site.  And the effort to run it - nevermind all the "extras" you put in with the analyses and the commentary and the updated standings - is herculean.

Thank you.

And while I am once again finishing way out of the money, this was my best showing in years... and it was a ton of fun.  Congrats to everyone in round 2.  Just getting here is an achievement, and those of you who (consistently) kick my behind...my hat is off to you.

Thanks for the kind words.  It's a lot of work, but it's also fun "work".  The hard part is trying to come up with interesting, challenging and unique theme ideas each year.

Posted by contrarian23 on 1/19/2015 7:12:00 PM (view original):
schwarze, thanks again for running an amazing tournament.  It can't be said often (or effusively) enough.

This is THE highlight of the year for me on this site.  And the effort to run it - nevermind all the "extras" you put in with the analyses and the commentary and the updated standings - is herculean.

Thank you.

And while I am once again finishing way out of the money, this was my best showing in years... and it was a ton of fun.  Congrats to everyone in round 2.  Just getting here is an achievement, and those of you who (consistently) kick my behind...my hat is off to you.

I second this. If my boss only knew how much of his time was spent trying to unravel Schwarze's themes.

Posted by jbohrman on 1/20/2015 12:18:00 AM (view original):

Posted by contrarian23 on 1/19/2015 7:12:00 PM (view original):
schwarze, thanks again for running an amazing tournament.  It can't be said often (or effusively) enough.

This is THE highlight of the year for me on this site.  And the effort to run it - nevermind all the "extras" you put in with the analyses and the commentary and the updated standings - is herculean.

Thank you.

And while I am once again finishing way out of the money, this was my best showing in years... and it was a ton of fun.  Congrats to everyone in round 2.  Just getting here is an achievement, and those of you who (consistently) kick my behind...my hat is off to you.

I second this. If my boss only knew how much of his time was spent trying to unravel Schwarze's themes.

I third this.  Over the last two years, I've run about 30 teams on this site.  24 have been as part of this tournament.  It is easily the best thing going around here.  And, as infuriatingly frustrating as it is for all of us, the time, effort, and creativity that go into running it are never forgotten.  Thanks again!

STANDINGS AFTER REGULAR SEASON. 
Includes 5 point bonus for making playoffs.

PreRank	Name	60M	80M	NoCap	90M	100M	110M	Wins	Plyf Tms	Bonus	Round 2	Round 1	TOTAL
----------	-----------------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	----------
2	discodemo	90	97	93	96	80	91	547	4	20	567	675	905
3	WaitNSee	87	109	94	86	88	79	543	5	25	568	623	880
13	jbohrman	95	90	77	85	86	88	521	4	20	541	616	849
1	brianjw	82	84	81	88	84	83	502	1	5	507	677	846
4	schwarze	81	85	75	87	90	91	509	3	15	524	602	825
21	jmissirlis	91	93	74	86	80	92	516	3	15	531	580	821
6	ybjsports	77	88	74	73	78	90	480	2	10	490	639	810
7	yankeeso7	84	70	100	81	76	78	489	2	10	499	619	809
12	bardin	79	73	88	65	91	83	479	3	15	494	616	802
16	buddhagamer	79	91	81	88	82	75	496	2	10	506	579	796
31	contrarian23	76	87	81	80	93	78	495	2	10	505	580	795
5	mildnhazy	75	78	67	81	85	88	474	2	10	484	605	787
11	rbow923	81	82	74	83	93	80	493	1	5	498	577	787
75	rickysdad44	82	66	86	88	70	79	471	2	10	481	610	786
43	sford	86	86	85	80	62	83	482	2	10	492	583	784
9	dougpalm	77	78	87	68	88	77	475	2	10	485	585	778
45	rmdriskill	83	75	75	102	70	86	491	1	5	496	562	777
18	crystalao	82	78	84	77	96	68	485	1	5	490	561	771
14	jjgreen14	91	71	76	71	72	80	461	1	5	466	608	770
19	alleyviper	76	71	86	81	74	86	474	2	10	484	568	768
17	mpitt76	79	71	70	72	94	73	459	1	5	464	594	761
44	mllama54	68	79	76	70	76	76	445	0	0	445	618	754
76	Jdh34	60	78	86	74	77	76	451	1	5	456	582	747
60	calhoop	83	64	74	83	59	64	427	1	5	432	573	719

Looks like a two-man race for the #1 spot.

The pre-tournament rankings seem to be fairly reasonable in most cases. 10 of the top 13 (current standings) were ranked in the top 13 before the tournament began.

Considering I was projected dead-last early in the 2nd round, I'm pretty happy to be where I'm slated to finish.

What a disappointment for me in RND 2. Had a decent 1st half (252 Wins .519) but just had some teams die, for no real reason I can discern in the 2nd half (228 Wins .469). Hopefully a decent playoff showing will ease the sting, but looks like I can't move up but can move down.

Anyway, agree with the others who have commented on the great job schwarze does. This is the highlight of my WIS year and, while my interest has waned in WIS in general, I really enjoy this. Thanks schwarze!

Despite my frustration with the lack of care of this site and my worst performance in a second round in quite some time, I will continue to come back as long as schwarze keeps running these excellent tournaments.  Thank you for your work once again!