Posted by dahsdebater on 4/15/2011 5:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/15/2011 5:38:00 PM (view original):
Fatigue is the only logical reason to bat the worst hitter anywhere other than 9th.

This is not true at all.  Ok, it's kinda true.  But not really.  The difference between the average number of plate appearances 8- and 9-hole hitters get in a season is small enough that it can actually be beneficial in certain lineups to put a better bat in the 9 spot.  Lineup efficiency exists.

Posted by rbow923 on 4/16/2011 3:07:00 PM (view original):
Here's an irony. you move the pitcher up to conserve stamina. You draft better hitting pitchers because they're batting higher in the lineup. Because they make fewer outs the guys behind them get more PA. so you don't really save on stamina all you get is more hits.

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/16/2011 3:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 4/15/2011 5:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/15/2011 5:38:00 PM (view original):
Fatigue is the only logical reason to bat the worst hitter anywhere other than 9th.

This is not true at all.  Ok, it's kinda true.  But not really.  The difference between the average number of plate appearances 8- and 9-hole hitters get in a season is small enough that it can actually be beneficial in certain lineups to put a better bat in the 9 spot.  Lineup efficiency exists.

The lineup is less efficient if the worst hitter bats 8th instead of 9th.  On average, there is a 18 PA difference between each spot in the lineup.

I'm not sure I buy it.

If this were definitively true, then it would make sense to organize your lineup in descending order of ability.  There have been many studies of optimal lineup design over the years, and as far as I know none of them have concluded that it's optimal to do this.

Getting better hitters more PA is one factor.  But you also have to consider how different hitters, and in particular hitters with different kinds of skills, interact.  Most lineups put their best hitters in the top 3-4 spots.  If your 9th place hitter is better than your 8th place hitter, then it is more likely that those studs at the top of the order will have someone on base when they come up.  Which is preferable to having them bat with the bases empty.  The interaction effects are important and can easily outweigh the very minimal difference in 18 PA.

That's without even considering fatigue and the SIM's PA minimums for OLs.  When those things are factored in, it can easily become optimal to put even a crappy-hitting pitcher much higher than 9th in the lineup.

 

Posted by rbow923 on 4/16/2011 3:07:00 PM (view original):
Here's an irony. you move the pitcher up to conserve stamina. You draft better hitting pitchers because they're batting higher in the lineup. Because they make fewer outs the guys behind them get more PA. so you don't really save on stamina all you get is more hits.

Posted by contrarian23 on 4/16/2011 6:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/16/2011 3:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 4/15/2011 5:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/15/2011 5:38:00 PM (view original):
Fatigue is the only logical reason to bat the worst hitter anywhere other than 9th.

This is not true at all.  Ok, it's kinda true.  But not really.  The difference between the average number of plate appearances 8- and 9-hole hitters get in a season is small enough that it can actually be beneficial in certain lineups to put a better bat in the 9 spot.  Lineup efficiency exists.

The lineup is less efficient if the worst hitter bats 8th instead of 9th.  On average, there is a 18 PA difference between each spot in the lineup.

I'm not sure I buy it.

If this were definitively true, then it would make sense to organize your lineup in descending order of ability.  There have been many studies of optimal lineup design over the years, and as far as I know none of them have concluded that it's optimal to do this.

Getting better hitters more PA is one factor.  But you also have to consider how different hitters, and in particular hitters with different kinds of skills, interact.  Most lineups put their best hitters in the top 3-4 spots.  If your 9th place hitter is better than your 8th place hitter, then it is more likely that those studs at the top of the order will have someone on base when they come up.  Which is preferable to having them bat with the bases empty.  The interaction effects are important and can easily outweigh the very minimal difference in 18 PA.

That's without even considering fatigue and the SIM's PA minimums for OLs.  When those things are factored in, it can easily become optimal to put even a crappy-hitting pitcher much higher than 9th in the lineup.

 

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/16/2011 8:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by contrarian23 on 4/16/2011 6:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/16/2011 3:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 4/15/2011 5:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/15/2011 5:38:00 PM (view original):
Fatigue is the only logical reason to bat the worst hitter anywhere other than 9th.

This is not true at all.  Ok, it's kinda true.  But not really.  The difference between the average number of plate appearances 8- and 9-hole hitters get in a season is small enough that it can actually be beneficial in certain lineups to put a better bat in the 9 spot.  Lineup efficiency exists.

The lineup is less efficient if the worst hitter bats 8th instead of 9th.  On average, there is a 18 PA difference between each spot in the lineup.

I'm not sure I buy it.

If this were definitively true, then it would make sense to organize your lineup in descending order of ability.  There have been many studies of optimal lineup design over the years, and as far as I know none of them have concluded that it's optimal to do this.

Getting better hitters more PA is one factor.  But you also have to consider how different hitters, and in particular hitters with different kinds of skills, interact.  Most lineups put their best hitters in the top 3-4 spots.  If your 9th place hitter is better than your 8th place hitter, then it is more likely that those studs at the top of the order will have someone on base when they come up.  Which is preferable to having them bat with the bases empty.  The interaction effects are important and can easily outweigh the very minimal difference in 18 PA.

That's without even considering fatigue and the SIM's PA minimums for OLs.  When those things are factored in, it can easily become optimal to put even a crappy-hitting pitcher much higher than 9th in the lineup.

 

Once you get to the 3rd hitter, it basically is optimal to arrange ur hitters in descending order of ability.

Posted by boogerlips on 4/16/2011 10:48:00 PM (view original):
I remember trying to explain to NCMusician a couple years ago that not every inning is the first inning....It blew his mind then, still blows his mind today. People don't change.

Posted by footballmm11 on 4/17/2011 12:35:00 AM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/16/2011 8:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by contrarian23 on 4/16/2011 6:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/16/2011 3:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 4/15/2011 5:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/15/2011 5:38:00 PM (view original):
Fatigue is the only logical reason to bat the worst hitter anywhere other than 9th.

This is not true at all.  Ok, it's kinda true.  But not really.  The difference between the average number of plate appearances 8- and 9-hole hitters get in a season is small enough that it can actually be beneficial in certain lineups to put a better bat in the 9 spot.  Lineup efficiency exists.

The lineup is less efficient if the worst hitter bats 8th instead of 9th.  On average, there is a 18 PA difference between each spot in the lineup.

I'm not sure I buy it.

If this were definitively true, then it would make sense to organize your lineup in descending order of ability.  There have been many studies of optimal lineup design over the years, and as far as I know none of them have concluded that it's optimal to do this.

Getting better hitters more PA is one factor.  But you also have to consider how different hitters, and in particular hitters with different kinds of skills, interact.  Most lineups put their best hitters in the top 3-4 spots.  If your 9th place hitter is better than your 8th place hitter, then it is more likely that those studs at the top of the order will have someone on base when they come up.  Which is preferable to having them bat with the bases empty.  The interaction effects are important and can easily outweigh the very minimal difference in 18 PA.

That's without even considering fatigue and the SIM's PA minimums for OLs.  When those things are factored in, it can easily become optimal to put even a crappy-hitting pitcher much higher than 9th in the lineup.

 

Once you get to the 3rd hitter, it basically is optimal to arrange ur hitters in descending order of ability.

there's not much of an advantage, but hitting your pitcher 8th and a position player 9th will offset the lost plate appearances by providing more baserunners for the top of your lineup.

"Yes, giving an awful hitter more plate appearances by hitting him higher in the lineup is costly, but the benefit of having a better number nine hitter interacting with the top of the lineup is worth the trade-off, by about two runs per season.  By putting a decent hitter at the bottom of the order, the top spots in the lineup will have more runners on base to advance with walks and hits and drive in with hits." -From beyondtheboxscore.com talking about lineup optimization according to "The Book"

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Posted by footballmm11 on 4/18/2011 3:03:00 PM (view original):
ncmusician...beyondtheboxscore was using the lineup optimization put forward in The Book. the authors of that book are some of the most respected baseball analysts in the field. i was more referring to their work, which i put a lot of stock in.

Posted by zubinsum on 4/18/2011 3:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by footballmm11 on 4/18/2011 3:03:00 PM (view original):
ncmusician...beyondtheboxscore was using the lineup optimization put forward in The Book. the authors of that book are some of the most respected baseball analysts in the field. i was more referring to their work, which i put a lot of stock in.

Yeah, but the problem is that in rel-life there is no marginal cost associated with getting your players more PAs.  In the sim (at least in an OL) you need to manage the number of PAs you are using and balance that against the output of the line-up.