Hojo or the Wizard of Oz? Topic

zubinsum
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Oh and for about the same money, I like '98 Vizquel who has an equivalent line is .345/.399/.430. (.829ops).  He won't steal bases like Ozzie or Hojo, but he will hardly make any errors or a minus plays behind any pitcher.
7/17/2011 2:39 PM (edited)
ncmusician_7
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zubinsum, how are you calculating this?  "Ozzie is +21 outs and +40 bases over average on defense
Hojo is -7 outs and -18 bases over (under) average on defense"
7/17/2011 5:46 PM
zubinsum
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Compare their performance histories to league averages.
7/17/2011 6:47 PM
ncmusician_7
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Posted by zubinsum on 7/17/2011 6:47:00 PM (view original):
Compare their performance histories to league averages.
Are you assuming that a minus play is equal to an error and a plus play removes an error?  If so, I'm calculating a difference of about 18 outs (instead of 28) over 162 games.
7/17/2011 7:45 PM
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ncmusician_7
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Posted by zubinsum on 7/17/2011 9:37:00 PM (view original):
nc:
No.  Minus plays are worse than errors.  But you are getting the idea.
Why is a minus play worse?
7/17/2011 10:41 PM
just4me
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I'm inclined to wonder the same thing, especially given the large number of two-base errors I seem to encounter...
7/18/2011 8:05 AM
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ncmusician_7
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Posted by zubinsum on 7/18/2011 2:56:00 PM (view original):
plus and minus plays are calculated before hit type
So, why do you think a minus play is worse than an error?
7/18/2011 5:23 PM
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ncmusician_7
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Posted by zubinsum on 7/18/2011 10:23:00 PM (view original):
nc:
how would you do this calculation?
How would I do what calculation?  I think minus plays and errors are basically equivalent.  If the probabilities work properly, the order of the event tree isn't relevant.
7/18/2011 10:47 PM
zubinsum
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I calculated:

Errors as ~1.1 outs and 1 base.
Double plays as 1 out and 1 base 
Pus and minus plays as worth   ~1.1 outs and ~1.5 bases 
7/18/2011 11:27 PM
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