I have a 1970 prog team that's headed for the playoffs.  On that team is a rookie pitcher, 1988 Ramon Martinez (we use real names for AAA in this league, which I think makes a difference -- as I understand it, they perform as "themselves" and not as if they're normalized against the most recent season's stats). 

Martinez has only 36 RL innings, but he has a better ERC# than any of my starting pitchers (3.13 vs. 3.18, 3.42, 3.67 and 3.90).  What's more his HR/9# is 0.00 and we play in Tiger Stadium.  At some point in the first round I'll start him, probably at home.

However...

Pedro's brother has really stunk up the joint this season.  The sample size is incredibly small (16.1 IP) and I don't believe he's "jinxed" or "poisoned" but since he's a rookie I think there may be some technical glitch here associated with AAA.  Oh, and he's never pitched below 100%, and has usually been limited to 5-10 pitches in his appearances as a RH Specialist -- which to me makes his 13.22 ERA/2.69 WHIP/.360 OAV look even worse.

As I said, I'll start him, because I'm not one of those owners who believes in hot and cold players.  But boy, I don't like those regular season numbers...

Intellectually I don't believe in hot and cold players in the SIM, either.  But my gut is always trying to tell me otherwise.  Way too many times I see a player lock into a performance zone, good or bad, early in the season that seems to determine his course for the rest of the season.  Right now I've got Mike Donlin who started the season hitting over ,400 for two of my teams and he's finishing the season the same way.  He started the season hitting under .300 for a third team and it looks like he'll finish that way.  Wally Schang is pacing Babe Ruth `31 in homers on another team.  Has been since the first week and the pattern is continuing into midseason.  I'm sure some of this is attributable to ballpark characteristics, position in the lineup, type of competition, etc.  And the rest, I suppose, are the laws of chance.,  But just as you can usually tell how a team will do 60 or 70 games into the season, you can usually tell the same thing about players.

Bottom line, if your gut tells you not to pitch him in the playoffs, don't pitch him.

Maybe I'm just looking for the opposite, but I'm always noticing players of mine starting cold and finishing up about where I expect them.  I pretty strongly don't believe in hot/cold players -- but I do believe in human error.  Remember for a while there were those 0 HR pitchers giving up quite a few HRs?  Admin said there was nothing wrong, then enough people complained and they looked into it and found out there was some data entry-type error for those pitchers.  Same thing more recently I think it was for 1918 pitchers and the amount of walks they were giving up.  So if there's anything wrong with my pitcher, that's the sort of thing I'd expect it to be.

As for my gut, it's taking a back seat to my pride.  I'd feel like a hypocrite if I didn't start this pitcher in the playoffs after everything I've said to the WW-abusing "gut instinct" owners!

I'm in a league with lots of AAA (80M, 60/20 WAA league), and I've noticed worse than expected stats from AAA pitchers...now, I realize in this type of league AAA pitching stats will be well below RL, but they seem to be much worse than I think they ought to be. This is just observational, anecdotal evidence, though. I haven't gone through every team and collected data on their AAA pitchers...

Also, and I could be very mistaken, I thought it was pick-your-own AAA players that were "themselves" and that randomly generated AAA players (real names or fictitious) were normalized against the latest season. Again, that's just the way I remember hearing it, but I might be remembering wrong and/or the source could have been mistaken.

Posted by AKlopp on 11/26/2011 9:48:00 PM (view original):
I'm in a league with lots of AAA (80M, 60/20 WAA league), and I've noticed worse than expected stats from AAA pitchers...now, I realize in this type of league AAA pitching stats will be well below RL, but they seem to be much worse than I think they ought to be. This is just observational, anecdotal evidence, though. I haven't gone through every team and collected data on their AAA pitchers...

Also, and I could be very mistaken, I thought it was pick-your-own AAA players that were "themselves" and that randomly generated AAA players (real names or fictitious) were normalized against the latest season. Again, that's just the way I remember hearing it, but I might be remembering wrong and/or the source could have been mistaken.

This was my understanding as well (regarding how AAA players are normalized).

I thought it had to do with whether the names were fictitious or not (and obviously draft your own would be real names), but now I'm not so sure.  As 2011 was one of the better pitching seasons in a long time, that could I suppose partly explain my rookie's bad numbers.

If there's a glitch it might be with the specialist setting. I've stopped using that setting because of too many weird results.

Is there any hurry to start him? If you really think he's better I'd leave him in the pen to get a couple relief appearnces out of him before starting him in a later round. Start him now and he's finished.

Only two rounds in this league, both best of 7.  I figure I can start him in Game 2 of the first round and, if we make it that far, possibly in Game 5 or later of the WS.  He's going to enter the playoffs underused so he might recover in time for two starts.

It hasn't just been his RH Specialist appearances that he's been bad in.  He's had 3 starts, only 1 of them not a disaster:

1.1 IP, 5 ER
6.2 IP, 2 ER
2.1 IP, 7 ER

14 ER in 10.1 IP for a 12.19 ERA.  

As a RH Specialist, he's appeared in 24 games, allowed 10 ER in 6.2 IP for a 13.49 ERA.

I guess you have to give him points for consistency...

Before I really learned how to select players, I saw another's success with '68 Gibson, and I drafted him for a team. He was pretty mediocre during the regular season, slightly below .500, an ERA around 4, in Safeco. After I clinched the division, having no confidence in Gibby, I rested the rest of my staff, and let him pitch every game without rest, the last 3 games of the season. He got shelled in the first one, but the more fatigued he got, the better he pitched. He won his last 2 games, and as luck would have it, as the playoffs began, I couldn't get on line to change pitchers. He pitched shutouts in both game 1 & 2 of the playoffs. Since then, I have operated under the assumption that there is a different set of algorythms in use for the playoffs, which, of course, no empirical evidence backs up. I try to get the best pitching matchups that I can, but almost without exception, when I out think myself, I lose. My advice would be to manage your staff to your best advantage, primarily considering fatigue factors, and if this is the guy it makes the most sense to use, use him. No point in blowing up the staff because you are afraid of game 1. Someone has to win 4 games, if using this pitcher gives you your best chance to do it, then the answer is obvious.

By the way, I have another rookie SP on this same prog team, and he's going to spend the playoffs in the minors because of his 4 effectiveness rating.  But his stats, I have to say, were a tad better than Ramon Martinez's:

30.2 IP, 3-0, 1.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .214 OAV

Posted by crazystengel on 11/26/2011 2:37:00 PM (view original):
I have a 1970 prog team that's headed for the playoffs.  On that team is a rookie pitcher, 1988 Ramon Martinez (we use real names for AAA in this league, which I think makes a difference -- as I understand it, they perform as "themselves" and not as if they're normalized against the most recent season's stats). 

Martinez has only 36 RL innings, but he has a better ERC# than any of my starting pitchers (3.13 vs. 3.18, 3.42, 3.67 and 3.90).  What's more his HR/9# is 0.00 and we play in Tiger Stadium.  At some point in the first round I'll start him, probably at home.

However...

Pedro's brother has really stunk up the joint this season.  The sample size is incredibly small (16.1 IP) and I don't believe he's "jinxed" or "poisoned" but since he's a rookie I think there may be some technical glitch here associated with AAA.  Oh, and he's never pitched below 100%, and has usually been limited to 5-10 pitches in his appearances as a RH Specialist -- which to me makes his 13.22 ERA/2.69 WHIP/.360 OAV look even worse.

As I said, I'll start him, because I'm not one of those owners who believes in hot and cold players.  But boy, I don't like those regular season numbers...

Erc# is a composite stat and a poor way to judge a player. How does his oav#, bb/9# and hr/9# compare to your other starters?

Well, it's my quick and dirty way to evaluate a pitcher.  His OAV# is .223, BB/9# is 5.74, HR/9# is 0.00.

My 4 regular starters and their #'s:

1970 Clyde Wright: .238, 2.91 and 0.70
1970 Gary Gentry: .227, 3.92, and 0.79
1970 Don Wilson: .262, 3.06, and 0.63
1970 Bob Veale: .248, 4.00, 0.57

So the rookie's got the best OAV#, the best HR/9# (by far) and the worst BB/9#. 

Where would you rank him in this bunch for a must-win playoff game?

Out of curiosity, can you give me some examples where you think the ERC# seriously misrepresents a pitcher's value?

I think what zubinism means is that if you take ERC# alone without considering the other #stats then it is not that effective.  Ramon gives up too many walks which will result in runs. That is why I traded Nomo in our league, he walks to many guys for too many years.  I like wright then gentry, then I would start checking + stats. no?

One question there is no stat says HR/9#, is that just meant to be HR/9?

Posted by crazystengel on 11/26/2011 7:39:00 PM (view original):
Maybe I'm just looking for the opposite, but I'm always noticing players of mine starting cold and finishing up about where I expect them.  I pretty strongly don't believe in hot/cold players -- but I do believe in human error.  Remember for a while there were those 0 HR pitchers giving up quite a few HRs?  Admin said there was nothing wrong, then enough people complained and they looked into it and found out there was some data entry-type error for those pitchers.  Same thing more recently I think it was for 1918 pitchers and the amount of walks they were giving up.  So if there's anything wrong with my pitcher, that's the sort of thing I'd expect it to be.

As for my gut, it's taking a back seat to my pride.  I'd feel like a hypocrite if I didn't start this pitcher in the playoffs after everything I've said to the WW-abusing "gut instinct" owners!

"I'd feel like a hypocrite if I didn't start this pitcher in the playoffs......after everything I said to the gut instinct owners".........As a member of the brutally berated.......yes........ yes you would. If he doesn't win, at least you'll still have your dignity, now lets trot him out there every other game with a confident 170 pitch count and a pull setting of 1. lol.