Posted by just4me on 12/23/2011 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Yes, but Morris at 80-85% is still going to be better than Gilmore and the scrubs, and possibly better than the RPs, as well. I'd try to pitch Morris as much as possible while also maximizing his 100% starts and eliminating Gilmore and the scrubs from startiNg altogether.

Yes, but at the cost of starting him at 100% (versus 84%) the next game.

With the hitting you have, craz, you may very well steal a game without your ace. I can't help but think that going with your ace in 1, 3 and5 gives you your best chance to win.

Well, you guys made me think, but I'll stick with the original plan (at least jfranco agrees with it!) of Morris, Reliever, Morris, Morris, Morris.  Though I might change the game 4 starter if I win the first two games -- worst case scenario at that point is I load up Morris for game 5 at 100% (as opposed to two straight games in the 80's).

Posted by zubinsum on 12/23/2011 10:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 12/23/2011 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Yes, but Morris at 80-85% is still going to be better than Gilmore and the scrubs, and possibly better than the RPs, as well. I'd try to pitch Morris as much as possible while also maximizing his 100% starts and eliminating Gilmore and the scrubs from startiNg altogether.

Yes, but at the cost of starting him at 100% (versus 84%) the next game.

with the Morris, Morris, RP, Morris, Morris.. you have two 100% starts and two ~85% starts from Morris and one start by an RP that is worth roughly what Morris is at ~85%. I would think that is way more valuable than than two, maybe three, 100% starts from Morris, one start from the ~85%-Morris-RP, and a throw away game.

And in the longer series, one, maybe two, 100% starts from Morris with two, maybe four ~85% starts from Morris and one start from the ~85%-Morris-RP would be more valuable than two, maybe four, 100% Morris starts, one ~85%-Morris-RP start and one, maybe two, throw away starts.

It just seems to me, that losing one, maybe two starts from Morris at 100% at the cost of throwing away a game in the series by pitching Gilmore or a scrub instead is a losing proposition versus throwing Morris at ~85% for two games.

As for Gilmore, I couldn't see myself giving him a start in the first round.  Maybe if we advance and the relievers and AAA SP are tired, then he gets the ball.  Although I should note that I nearly got the best season ever (in 171 uses) out of him -- 5.13 ERA in 121 innings (best was 5.05 in 123 IP).

We took the first two after all.  Morris (at 100%) has the ball for game 3, but I'm sticking the AAA in for game 4.  If necessary, Morris comes back at 100% in game 5.

Posted by just4me on 12/24/2011 1:14:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zubinsum on 12/23/2011 10:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 12/23/2011 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Yes, but Morris at 80-85% is still going to be better than Gilmore and the scrubs, and possibly better than the RPs, as well. I'd try to pitch Morris as much as possible while also maximizing his 100% starts and eliminating Gilmore and the scrubs from startiNg altogether.

Yes, but at the cost of starting him at 100% (versus 84%) the next game.

with the Morris, Morris, RP, Morris, Morris.. you have two 100% starts and two ~85% starts from Morris and one start by an RP that is worth roughly what Morris is at ~85%. I would think that is way more valuable than than two, maybe three, 100% starts from Morris, one start from the ~85%-Morris-RP, and a throw away game.

And in the longer series, one, maybe two, 100% starts from Morris with two, maybe four ~85% starts from Morris and one start from the ~85%-Morris-RP would be more valuable than two, maybe four, 100% Morris starts, one ~85%-Morris-RP start and one, maybe two, throw away starts.

It just seems to me, that losing one, maybe two starts from Morris at 100% at the cost of throwing away a game in the series by pitching Gilmore or a scrub instead is a losing proposition versus throwing Morris at ~85% for two games.

I guess I am confused about the fatigue situation.  I thought if Morris started two in a row, his second start would be at 85%.

Playoff fatigue is screwy.  Morris won the third game to give us a sweep -- but his fatigue level after the game stands at 71% (it never dropped below 85 during the regular season after a single start).  The other series is going to go at least one more game, so I suppose that helps Morris' chances of being able to go back-to-back in the next series.  I really need back-to-back starts out of him in a 7-game series.

Oh, and my reliever who started game 2 was 72 (72) after his start.  After game 3 (in which he wasn't used), he somehow dropped to 70 (71).  I guess that's his way of letting me know he's done for the post-season, ha ha.

How are your 480PA guys holding up in this?  I would imagine that they are taking a beating by now.

No, they're fine.  They were all 6-7% over going into the playoffs, now they're 7-8% over.

After game 1 of the 2nd round, Morris drops to 72%.  I don't think I'm going to get a chance to use him in back-to-back games, which sucks (oh and we lost the game, too).  He entered the playoffs underused, had an extra day off between rounds, had another day off because we wrapped up our 1st round a day before our opponent ... and still he won't bounce back to over 80% after a start.  Tough to get full playoff value out of an 848 inning pitcher...

My team forced a game 7 after one of my low-inning relievers won game 6.  2 of the 3 relievers are now probably done for the post-season (might crawl back up to the low 80's if we make the WS and it goes long). 

Ed Morris takes the ball for the deciding game, so we have a decent shot at advancing.  If it happens, it'll be interesting to see who the hell I start on Morris' off days...

Posted by crazystengel on 12/28/2011 1:57:00 AM (view original):
My team forced a game 7 after one of my low-inning relievers won game 6.  2 of the 3 relievers are now probably done for the post-season (might crawl back up to the low 80's if we make the WS and it goes long). 

Ed Morris takes the ball for the deciding game, so we have a decent shot at advancing.  If it happens, it'll be interesting to see who the hell I start on Morris' off days...

At the end of the WS, you may want to consider letting Morris throw fatigued, especially if your other options are also fatigued. It's not like you'll need him after that point. You could probably get away with Morris-RP-Morris-RP-Morris-Morris-Morris though you may want to lower his game 7 PC a bit

Morris has dropped to 72-73% after every playoff start so far. Not sure whether Morris that tired is better than my rookie SP whose real life ERC# is 4.76 (which fairly accurately predicted his performance in this league -- 4.87 ERA in 122 innings).  So Morris and his 2.02 ERC# at 72-73% or the rookie at 100% -- I have no idea which would be better, but I guess I lean to the rookie.  

The offense is very good and with Morris at 100% we're 4-1 in the playoffs (would be 5-1 if we win the pm game to advance) so who knows, maybe we could win all 4 of his starts and it wouldn't matter what happened in the other 3 games.

The one RP I have left I'd like to save if possible, and maybe start him late in the WS if it comes to that.

EDIT: We're in the WS!  Morris pitches a game 7 shutout to extend his playoff shutout streak to 22 innings.

Lost the first WS game with Morris pitching, and he's down to 73% again.  I think we've got almost no chance now.

I did some rough calculations and based on his RL innings I figure Morris should be able to pitch 5.75 innings a game, or 11.5 innings every two games.  But there's no way to get those innings out of him (especially in the playoffs) unless you pitch him tired a lot of the time.  That's a ton of innings (and salary) gone to waste.