The WIS Hall of Fame - Page 2 - SimLeague Baseball

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Posted by mattedesa on 1/11/2012 11:04:00 AM (view original):
Great work on these posts, zub. Really interesting how these good but not great players that had an extra long career show up to be so valuable in this measurement. It might be a questionable indicator for real-life HOF, but how about a progressive league HOF? Which is more valuable - an average length great career or an extended length good career? I could make arguments both ways.

Good question. My guess is that it shouldn't matter much in on-field performance, although you will pay more for concentrated RC perfromance.

1/12/2012 12:45 AM (edited)

boogerlips

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Posted by zubinsum on 1/12/2012 1:24:00 AM (view original):
Posted by boogerlips on 1/11/2012 10:48:00 AM (view original):
Zoob, how do you think the WIS salary system compares to WAR?
For position players, Wins Above Replacement or WAR a composite stat generated using offensive and defensive metrics. Typically weighted on base average (wOBA) and ultimate zone rating (UZR) are used, but as I understand different organizations use different metrics. The offensive and defensive metrics
are added together in a from that gives total worth in runs. This value is compared to a theoretical replacement player that is usually defined as being the league average less a constant. A positional and league adjustment is made to get Runs Above Replacement (RAR). RAR is converted to WAR by dividing by ~10. I think the end result is also scaled to playing time.

The WIS salary data base differs in three major ways

* RC and fielding/range grades are used instead or wOBA and UZR.

* Salary is in absolute terms while WAR is relative to replacement level-- or really league average. But we could adjust WIS salary to salary above average (or replacement) rather easily. Salary Above Replacement (SAR) would equal ($/PA - k )*PA. I am guessing replacement salary would be ~$4000/PA.

* Most importantly I THINK in the WIS database the marginal cost of production (in salary) increases as RC/PA increases. In WIS, RC/PA (inclusive of defensive and seasonal adjustments) is ralated to salary per PA ($/PA) in some kind of exponental function: e.g. $/PA = x * (RC/PA)^y. To put this another way, using WAR, each win is treated as being equal and a 8 WAR year is worth as much as two 4 WAR years. In WIS an 160 RC year cost more (in salary) as two 80 RC years.

[Edit-- Thinking about it more, WIS may use RC27 instead of RC to salary players... the would also explain the exponential effect that I percieve.]

Yes I think you're correct about RC27. IMO the correct way to price OBP is in a team setting. If you had nine .500OBP players in a lineup how many runs would they score and therefore how much should they cost? I think RC27 addressess that issue, and because OBP is a curved function, you get a curved pricing structure.

1/12/2012 11:35 AM

zubinsum

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Yes I think you're correct about RC27. IMO the correct way to price OBP is in a team setting. If you had nine .500OBP players in a lineup how many runs would they score and therefore how much should they cost? I think RC27 addressess that issue, and because OBP is a curved function, you get a curved pricing structure.

Okay doing a bit more reasearch RC27 is just the rate stats for RC. RC27 = RC per 27 outs. It answers the question, how many runs would a line up of a certain player-year produce over 27 outs. The problem with using such a value measurement is that it gives the wrong estimate of run production because it assumes everyone in the line-up is as good. You are right it is a curved function ~~approxamately porportional to obp squared times slugging.~~

          RC/27 = RC/PA * PA/outs * 27
          RC/27 ~= 27 * x * obp * y * slg / (1-obp)
          RC/27 ~= 27xy obp*slg/(1-obp)
          Since obp ~= 1/(1-obp)
          RC/27   ~= 27xy * obp^2 * slg
          RC/27   ~= [constant] obp^2 *slg

[Edit I made a pretty goofy mistake above. Thanks to Contrarian for catching it]

1/13/2012 12:06 AM (edited)

contrarian23

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Zub, just checking, but how do you figure that OBP ~= 1/(1-OBP).

If OBP = .4, then 1/(1-OBP) = 1/.6 = 1.667
If OBP = .3, then 1/(1-OBP) = 1/.7 = 1.429
If OBP = .5, then 1/(1-OBP) = 1/.5 = 2

I'm not seeing it, or am I missing something?

1/12/2012 10:04 PM

boogerlips

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Why do those equals signs have tounges?

1/12/2012 10:30 PM

zubinsum

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Posted by contrarian23 on 1/12/2012 10:04:00 PM (view original):
Zub, just checking, but how do you figure that OBP ~= 1/(1-OBP).

If OBP = .4, then 1/(1-OBP) = 1/.6 = 1.667
If OBP = .3, then 1/(1-OBP) = 1/.7 = 1.429
If OBP = .5, then 1/(1-OBP) = 1/.5 = 2

I'm not seeing it, or am I missing something?

I screwed up...
I was thinking of the conversion that for x close to 0, 1/(1-x) ~= 1+x
Either way I got it wrong. Thanks for catching it.

1/13/2012 7:10 AM (edited)

zubinsum

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The Hall of Fame has 17 second basemen plus three in for other reasons. The WIS 200 has 19. I added 7 current second basemen in case anyone was interested. Per Boog’s request I added WAR to the chart.

Name	Position	Total Salary	Rank	Active	HOF	HOF Ballot	WAR
Rogers Hornsby	2B	123072930	10	No	Yes	No	127.8
Eddie Collins	2B	120811784	11	No	Yes	No	126.7
Nap Lajoie	2B	110078109	15	No	Yes	No	104.2
Charlie Gehringer	2B	95882786	31	No	Yes	No	80.9
Craig Biggio	2B/C	95703986	34	No	No	No	66.2
Joe Morgan	2B	94209094	37	No	Yes	No	103.5
Rod Carew	2B	91655455	44	No	Yes	No	79.1
Frankie Frisch	2B	91125117	45	No	Yes	No	74.8
Nellie Fox	2B	82631378	71	No	Yes	No	44.4
Ryne Sandberg	2B	82327127	73	No	Yes	No	62
Roberto Alomar	2B	79116597	84	No	Yes	No	63.5
Lou Whitaker	2B	77047562	94	No	No	No	69.7
Jeff Kent	2B	72942409	122	No	No	No	59.4
Bobby Doerr	2B	72806433	123	No	Yes	No	47.7
Bid McPhee	2B	70736837	135	No	Yes	No	57.9
Bobby Grich	2B	69277393	146	No	No	No	67.6
Willie Randolph	2B	65502292	181	No	No	No	60.5
Jimmy Dykes	3B/2B	64621124	189	No	No	No	28.1
Billy Herman	2B	63006572	204	No	Yes	No	55.6
Red Schoendienst	2B	62182903	217	No	Yes	No	40.4
Tony Lazzeri	2B	59040528	252	No	Yes	No	48.3
Bill Mazeroski	2B	58279486	264	No	Yes	No	26.9
Jackie Robinson	2B/3B	56339539	286	No	Yes	No	63.2
Joe Gordon	2B	53239091	329	No	Yes	No	54.9
Placido Polanco	2B/3B	49873055	389	Yes	No	No	35.5
Johnny Evers	2B	45804026	457	No	Yes	No	48.4
Chase Utley	2B	45012438	470	Yes	No	No	42.3
Miller Huggins	2B	44408746	492	No	Yes	No	35.7
Eric Young	2B	42436175	550	Yes	No	Yes	17
Brian Roberts	2B	38526189	658	Yes	No	No	21.7
Bucky Harris	2B	37201912	705	No	Yes	No	?
Brandon Phillips	2B	35431932	773	Yes	No	No	?
Craig Counsell	2B	33712732	826	Yes	No	No	18.1
Tony Womack	OF/2B	30235583	976	No	No	Yes	?
Ian Kinsler	2B	28893651	1046	Yes	No	No	24.9
Sparky Anderson	2B	2442601	4227	No	Yes	No	?

I think the WIS 200 look pretty good. Hornsby beats out Collins for the top spot in a tight race. Personally, I think WIS gets this right, no matter what Bill James thinks. Hornsby’s career was really only about 14 or 15 full seasons and scattered appearances before and after, but no one else has ever had a peak like Hornsby. Lajoie joins Hornsby and Collins above $100M.

After that, the list gets kind of boring: Gehringer, Biggio, Morgan, Carew, Frisch and Fox all had good long careers. Ryne Sandberg is arguably a surprise, but WIS likes his glove. I grew up watching him play and I have to agree more than not. Another glove-man, Alomar follows. Whitaker and Kent aren’t hall of famers, but the former is a fringe candidate that saberticians love and the latter would be a slam dunk (2400 hits, .500 slg) if not for steroid suspicions. Doerr and McPhee are solid HoFers and Grich and Randolf are loved by saberticians.

Jimmy Dykes is a surprise. It seems that WIS likes his range. The facts that he was decent for a long time in a high offense era helps too.

HoFer that don’t make the WIS top 200 are Billy Herman, Red Schoendienst, Tony Lazzeri, Bill Mazeroski, Jackie Robinson, Joe Gordon and Johnny Evers. Some of these guys aren’t surprising. Schoendienst is in as much for sticking around forever (he has been in a uni as a player, manager or coach longer than anyone—something like 60+ years) as much as being a stud fielder and tough as nails. Lazzeri was the best 2^nd basemen the Yankees ever had until someone figured out that Randolf was better. Joe Gordon also played for the Yankeees and was good for a while. Evers was a decent 2^nd basemen but the database doesn’t really like his glove and he gets killed playing in a low offensive environment. And Maz was the HoF inductee that made them disband the Veteran’s committee.

WIS doesn’t give Robinson much respect mostly due to a short career and a good but not great glove (in WIS’ estimation at least). Billy Herman seems decent in the WIS database, but in his best offensive years his fielding was off and in his best defensive years his offense wasn’t stellar.

As for the rest, what catches my eye the most is that WIS ranks Huggins and Evers close to equal despite the latter’s longer career and much higher WAR. It seems that even though WIS likes Ever’s glove a bit more that isn’t enough to offset the difference in OBP.

I’d have to say the WIS200 looks as good, if not better than the HoF. WIS misses Robinson and Herman, but it gets Whitaker, Randolf and Grich. Dykes would be a mistake, but Maz, Gordan and Lazzeri are avoided.

1/13/2012 12:07 AM

AKlopp

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Like the addition of WAR (BB-Ref? Fangraphs?). What jumps out at me is the small lead Biggio has over Morgan in Salary, but the huge lead Morgan has in WAR...I'm guessing alot of differences like this can be attributed to the differences in valuing defense.

1/13/2012 1:55 PM

AKlopp

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Running a regression of Sal vs WAR, the R² is 81%. Total salaries that deviate more than 10M above(+) or below (-) what is expected based on the regression with WAR as the predictor:
Fox +23M
Biggio +19M
Dykes +18M
Mazeroski +12M
Doerr +10M
Robinson -18M
Evers -17M
Kinsler -16M
Gordon -14M
Utley -13M
Morgan -10M

1/13/2012 2:07 PM

zubinsum

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Posted by AKlopp on 1/13/2012 1:55:00 PM (view original):
Like the addition of WAR (BB-Ref? Fangraphs?). What jumps out at me is the small lead Biggio has over Morgan in Salary, but the huge lead Morgan has in WAR...I'm guessing alot of differences like this can be attributed to the differences in valuing defense.

Basball Reference. Thanks!

1/14/2012 12:10 AM

chisox378

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This is a cool post. It is giving me ideas on who I want to build my next team around not to mention some possible fill ins.

1/14/2012 10:28 AM

zubinsum

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3^rd base might be the most interesting position when it comes to hall of fame voting. Only 10 third basemen are in the hall as third basemen. The reasons seem to be two-fold. The most common explanation has to do with 3^rd base’s position on the defensive spectrum, which happens to be right in the middle. 3^rd basemen that can hit are often moved to a corner OF spot or 1B where they can worry less about defense. 3^rd basemen that have great gloves often find a better fit at 2^nd or short. The other important concept to keep in mind when thinking about HoF 3^rd basemen is that no position has moved so much on the defensive spectrum. Early in baseball history, it was third base, not short stop, which was considered the toughest of positions; and even up to the middle of the century 3^rd was often regarded as a defense first position. Keep those concepts mind when reviewing the WIS200 list for 3^rd basemen.

Name	Position	Total Salary	Rank	Active	HOF	HOF Ballot	WAR
Mel Ott	RF/3B	108857914	18	No	Yes	No	109.3
Alex Rodriguez	SS/3B	101723326	24	Yes	No	No	104.6
George Brett	3B	101018394	26	No	Yes	No	85
Mike Schmidt	3B	97308239	28	No	Yes	No	108.3
Brooks Robinson	3B	96275743	30	No	Yes	No	69.1
Paul Molitor	DH/3B	95840486	33	No	Yes	No	74.8
Wade Boggs	3B	93800853	40	No	Yes	No	89
Chipper Jones	3B/LF	87136299	55	Yes	No	No	82.7
Eddie Mathews	3B	84608196	63	No	Yes	No	98.3
Ron Santo	3B	76161968	100	No	Yes	No	66.4
Tony Perez	1B/3B	74359212	108	No	Yes	No	50.5
Buddy Bell	3B	74315106	109	No	No	No	60.8
Graig Nettles	3B	73886037	113	No	No	No	61.6
Darrell Evans	3B	70881085	134	No	No	No	57.3
Pie Traynor	3B	68387429	153	No	Yes	No	37.1
Stan Hack	3B	67327584	164	No	No	No	54.8
Lave Cross	3B	67208407	166	No	No	No	44.8
Joe Sewell	SS/3B	64912533	185	No	Yes	No	48.4
Jimmy Dykes	3B/2B	64621124	189	No	No	No	28.1
Dick Bartell	3B	64370993	193	No	No	No	37.7
Scott Rolen	3B	63067519	202	Yes	No	No	66.2
Frank Baker	3B	62917513	205	No	Yes	No	63.7
Adrian Beltre	3B	62805891	207	Yes	No	No	47.6
Ken Boyer	3B	61969423	219	No	No	No	58.4
Gary Gaetti	3B	60795407	235	No	No	No	37.9
Jimmy Collins	3B	56524659	285	No	Yes	No	53
Jackie Robinson	2B/3B	56339539	286	No	Yes	No	63.2
Freddy Lindstrom	3B	51793676	349	No	Yes	No	29.2
Vinny Castilla	3B	50466393	375	No	No	Yes	16.4
Placido Polanco	2B/3B	49873055	389	Yes	No	No	35.5
John McGraw	3B	47973055	421	No	Yes	No	49.3
George Kell	3B	46328321	442	No	Yes	No	33.6
Bill Mueller	3B	29692148	999	No	No	Yes	#N/A
Bill McKechnie	3B	17399643	1738	No	Yes	No	#N/A

Mell Ott isn’t really a 3^rd baseman but I find it interesting that his career value trumps them all. He isn’t a player I would have guessed to top 100M. A-Roid is next and while not primarily a 3^rd baseman for his career, he figures to finish with more games at 3^rd than short. However, given his peak he will be remembered as a shortstop first. Brett is the only career third baseman to top 100 million. I kind of like this as he is my favorite all-time third basemen. Modern stat-heads like Schmidt, but I always thought Bretts skills would transfer better to the past. WIS seems to agree.

After Schmidt, the WIS200 feature a bunch of modern era, no doubt HoFers: (or future HoFers): Robinson, Molitor, Boggs, Jones and Mathews are a pretty good group. Santo is next. I think both WIS and WAR nail this ranking among modern era 3^rd basemen. After Santo come the long careers of Buddy Bell, Greg Nettles and Darrell Evens which corresponds well to WAR.

Pie Traynor, long regarded as the best third basemen prior to WWII is next. WIS likes his high averages and defense more than WAR does. More importantly Traynor’s ranking shows how much the position has changed (Or at least it shows how much the perception of third basemen has changed). WWII era Cub’s great, Stan Hack, is next. I don’t know if Hack ever got much support for the Hall of Fame, but he seems to be a fringy sort of candidate. WIS would seem to agree.

WIS likes the deadball great Lave Cross more than the Hall of Fame. Like Traynor his skills transfer better in WIS than in the minds or calculators of saberticians. Considering his defensive records he really should get (or have gotten) a bit of HoF consideration.

A 1920s 3^rd basemen, Jimmy Dykes, and a 1930s 3^rd basemen, Dick Bartell round out the WIS200. Both had good gloves and long careers in high offense eras.

HoFers that din’t make the list are Frank Baker, Jimmy Collins, Freddy Lindstrom and George Kell. Collins and Baker didn’t have especially long careers. Lindstrom and Kell are pretty fringy HoF candidates anyway. Among active 3^rd basemen, Rolen and Beltre look likely to crack the WIS200 with the former having a decent shot at the HoF. Boyer just missed bothe the WIS200 and the HoF.

The WIS200 is worse than the HoF, but not much worse. Cross, Hack, Nettles and Evans wouldn’t be horrible HoFers anyways. Bell, Dykes and Bartell don’t belong, but Lindstrom and Kell are avoided. Still Baker and Collins are missed in the WIS200.

1/24/2012 11:51 PM

jfranco77

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2B - Robbie Alomar should probably be higher, I know he may not have deserved all those gold gloves, but he was a solid fielder and his range was better than WIS gives him credit for.,

3B - No way I'm taking Schmidt over Brett. WIS favors Brett's AVG and discounts Schmidt's power and walks. I agree with WAR on these two.

1/30/2012 12:58 PM

cwillis802

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Keep it coming zub. Great post. I look forward to your pitchers section.

2/6/2012 11:42 PM

zubinsum

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I'll get back to it this weekend.

2/9/2012 11:03 PM

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