Does NT seeding always follow the Projection Report precisely? Or even closely?

Yes almost exactly, although their can be small deviations and changes. A way it could go wrong is if someone in the would-be field has below a .500 record, then obviously they can't be in the field, so they get leapfrogged. Usually the cutoff for an at-large is around 50 give or take (but it may vary by world).

There can also be slight variations so that conference-mates aren't on the same side of the bracket. I was bumped from a 13 to 16 seed once because of this. 

yes, its 100% exact when special cases do not apply (such as those mentioned by the previous two posters)

How can I determine whether that second example would cover my current situation, where by 32 Projection Report netted me a #10 seed?

Posted by zbrent716 on 6/6/2013 7:05:00 PM (view original):
How can I determine whether that second example would cover my current situation, where by 32 Projection Report netted me a #10 seed?

It's difficult. You have to look at #25-#32 on the projection report.  Are they seeded #7,  #8 or #9? If not,  look at their conference mates and see where they're seeded, and in which region.  Then do the #33-#35 the same way etc.
 
 I wouldn't complain. Almost any coach would prefer to be a #10 seed over  #9 or #8.  At #8-#9, you get the #1 seed in the 2nd round

Posted by zbrent716 on 6/6/2013 7:05:00 PM (view original):
How can I determine whether that second example would cover my current situation, where by 32 Projection Report netted me a #10 seed?

Do you have conference mates in the 1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 half of all four regions? If so, this covers your case, as that prevents you from having an 8 or 9 seed. 

I was 12 on the PR and got seeded #4 just this afternoon. My teams still overrated but this is the first time I've been seeded differently than my projection. FYI.