So I finished 52 on the projection report in Iba D3, and I'm a 15 seed. The 13 seeds finished 48, 53, 54, and 62. The 14 seeds finished 49, 51, 55, and 64. Yet I, at 52, am a 15. 

I know that I can be shifted because of too many teams in my conference making the tournament. I know they keep conference foes out of the same half of a region. I've been shifted from a 13 seed to a 16 seed because of that before. But that was when my conference had 7 teams in the tournament. This year, my conference only has four. Only one is in the same half-region as one of the three 13 seeds who finished below me on the projection report. There is one region where I don't have any conference foes at all. 

So how did I drop all the way to 15. I thought I understood the seeding logic, but maybe I don't. 

if you finished 52 on the projection report and are in the NT. You should be thrilled to be there. Not questioning your seed. Anything beyond 45-50 is a gift and should consider themselves lucky no more upsets occured in the conference tourneys than they did. Most of the 14, 15, and 16 seeds are taken by teams who find a way to win their conference tourney... but don't really belong. 

I do consider myself lucky that I'm in the NT. I also want to know how the seeding logic works. 

Yeah, it's really not straight down the line with 1-4 being #1's, 5-8 automatically getting the 2's etc.
You were 1-5 against the 6 teams with an rpi of 50 or below that you played, and exited your CT early, It just doesn't look that odd to me, except like I said that a 52 made it at all as an at large team. Wonder if those higher teams all won their CT's. I think that carries some weight when you end the season winning.

Did you check to see if there were other teams that got moved because of conference mates? If they had to be moved, perhaps they were moved into your spot?

Posted by zags27 on 7/11/2013 12:29:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, it's really not straight down the line with 1-4 being #1's, 5-8 automatically getting the 2's etc.
You were 1-5 against the 6 teams with an rpi of 50 or below that you played, and exited your CT early, It just doesn't look that odd to me, except like I said that a 52 made it at all as an at large team. Wonder if those higher teams all won their CT's. I think that carries some weight when you end the season winning.

No, except for issues with multiple teams being in the same bracket it should be EXACTLY like that.  The criteria you list is already factored into the projection report.   Thats why there IS a projection report.

Posted by tkimble on 7/11/2013 12:33:00 PM (view original):
Did you check to see if there were other teams that got moved because of conference mates? If they had to be moved, perhaps they were moved into your spot?

The teams in the 13 and 14 spot in my region were moved because of conference mates. I did notice that. But there were two things about that that still made me ask the question: 

1. There were three other regions that didn't include teams moved because of conference mates. I had conference mates in all three regions, but I only had conference makes in the appropriate half-region in one of the three cases. If they try to keep conference mates out of the same half-region (which is what I thought they did), then there are two other regions that I could've moved into easily. 

2. I was under the impression that they'd rather move one team a lot than move six teams a little. As I said, there's been a case before where I was a 13 on the PR (possibly 52 again) and dropped all the way to a 16, and I was the only one moved in that case. I could've slid over to another 13 seed and had that team move down one spot, instead of me moving down three seed lines. But that's not what they did. So I thought that was part of the logic: move as few teams as possible, but it's okay to move them a few lines. 

tarvolon, they actually try to keep teams from a conference out of a region first, then out of the half region second. not sure if that was what you were saying exactly... but essentially, if you had 1 conf mate in each of the other 3 regions, and no conf mate in your region, they could even give you a 16 in that region over a 13 in the other regions.

2. they dont compare alternate scenarios. all they do is go team by team, top to bottom, and try to insert that team. say you are up, now they try to give you the best seed left, and fit you in that spot. if you can't fit there, they try the 2nd best seed left, and so on. if they cant find any spot that complies, they either try the list again with different criteria, or just stick you in the highest slot available (which is definitely the last option they use). then, they move on to the next team. there is no concept of well, we could have swapped you with the guy above you, moving him down 1 on the S curve but not even changing his seed, instead of moving you down 3 whole seeds.

okay, that makes some sense. I didn't know they tried to keep you out of the region before keeping you out of the half-region. Honestly, that logic seems a little bit ridiculous to me, but it makes sense that that would be the logic. Would you rather have a team drop two seed lines or have to worry about a potential matchup in a 13 vs 3 Elite Eight game? Meh. Is that a restraint in real life too? I'm pretty sure they don't give a damn in real life, so I'm not sure why WIS does. Anyone have a suggestion? But I do appreciate that, it at least lets me know what's going on. 

So for the latter case, this is what you're saying they do: take the #49 team before any of the 50+ teams are placed, try to put them in a #13 spot, none are available, move them down to a #14 spot, put them in my region. Then they take me, the #52 team, try to put me in the last 13 spot (which isn't my region, because my region would've worked), and it doesn't work because the 2 seed there is in my conference. Then they try to put me in the 14 spots, but three of them are in regions with my conference, and the fourth region already has aforementioned demoted #49 team. So then they move me down to 15. 

I was thinking it more like having a bracket in place and then moving teams down, not just taking each team individually and looking for spots. That does explain how I dropped from 13 to 15 even though I could've taken the 14 spot in my own region with no problem. A team ahead of me had already been demoted to that spot. And I could've taken the 13 spot in my region with no problem, but that I guess would've meant moving up a spot on the S-Curve (which is a no-no). 

This all seems a little bit stupid, but I see how it works now, which is nice. And it's not as bad as #55 on the S-curve getting a 16 seed. 

its not a no-no to take a spot higher on the S-curve - by definition, it has to happen, if you move people down. for example, the #40 guy takes the #43 spot, then the #41 guy will try to take the #40 spot first. you are correct though that they will never move you up a spot when a higher ranked team already has that spot.

i agree it seems stupid. i believe the system used to only check half regions - and someone reported a bug with PIT seeding, basically, that you could meet before the elite 8. i think seble just had the engine try 1 level out in tournament seeding, affecting the NT, too. its not 100% clear if that is the case, but i strongly feel like when the projection report came out, it almost matched the seeding exactly. checking the region on top of half region dramatically increases the chance of shuffling.

i actually found this issue like 10 months ago, and submitted it as a bug. seble said, it was the way it was intended. i thought that was a bit of a cop out, because i strongly feel it didn't used to work this way, but there is some merit to it. i pointed to the fact that the NCAA rule only requires you to check the half region, well, it used to, until that requirement was removed in anticipation of the big east sending over 8 teams. but the NCAA does also require the top 3 teams from a conference to be in their own region, and i honestly would prefer to see the top 4 in their own region, and so there is some merit to trying to split guys that way.

as far as the way teams are viewed 1 by 1, kind of agree its stupid, but only from the standpoint its not that great of a way to do things. however, its a tough thing to program really well, and i think as far as quick simple solutions go, this is not a bad one. its sort of like scheduling that 11th game for some people automatically because they cant schedule well. its kind of dumb (clearly, this has a bigger impact), but im also not sure its worth the effort they would spend trying to fix it - considering its very possible the "new" method would be just as flawed, maybe even worse, wth IMO only a minority chance its more than marginally improved. so i basically agree, but i also dont think i would want them to fix it, if i was still coaching a team.

Yeah, the top four all have to be in separate regions thing I really don't like and think is kinda dumb. But the other? It sounds kinda dumb, it I can imagine that it makes things much, much easier to program, and I can't hate on it too much if it's just admittedly a shortcut.