Posted by dacj501 on 8/13/2013 2:54:00 PM (view original):
what is the benefit of capping actions? Doesn't it just hurt the teams that have more money? What's the point of having more money then? And battles would just come down to prestige and distance then, right?
It means you could go after more players. Which, in an action-capped world, would help you a lot. Let me expand here.
The desire for an actions cap, i've found, comes from three places:
1. The frustration that comes from recruit "poaching"
2. Lower-prestige D1 schools (say, C-range) are more limited than they should be during recruiting
3. The current recruiting system is almost irresponsibly unrealistic (we all know realism isn't always the answer, but visiting a recruit 100 times during the real-life equivalent of a cycle would be akin to one team scoring 200 points in a game)
DISCLAIMER I believe the cap would have to be high enough that it only really affected D1 teams in terms of TOTAL recruiting effort. For D2 it would probably end up being similar total effort levels (in terms of # of HVs, STs) just more spread out.
I'll try and illustrate the point with a few 'scenarios'
SCENARIO 1A - Equal Effort, Prestige Difference
Team X - B+ Prestige, $100k recruiting budget
Team Y - B- Prestige, $100k recruiting budget
Player Z - 2 stars, no distance preference, favorite school not X or Y, equidistant from X and Y
RESULT - Both teams put in the max effort for Player Z and hit the cap (involves sending the max number of visits, scouting trips, calls, etc.) Say this costs exactly $10k for each school. Because of the prestige difference, X's effort is multiplied by about 130%. Team X wins the recruit.
SCENARIO 1B - Same as above BUT Team X promises 10 minutes, Team Y promises a start and 25 minutes
RESULT - Thanks to the promises, Team X's effort is multiplied by 110% while Team Y's effort is multiplied by 140%. For those keeping track at home, that's now 143% for Team X and 140% for Team Y. Team X still wins the recruit.
SCENARIO 1C - Same as above again BUT Player Z's favorite school is Team Y
RESULT - The Favorite Team bonus is a 125% multiplier (if you haven't noticed, I'm pulling the numbers out of my *** here) so now Team Y, at B- prestige, wins the recruit. (as a litmus test, which team do you think would win if this battle happened in real life? Probably Team Y, despite the B- prestige, due to the favorite school bonus).
CONCLUSION - Under the current system, the only way the B- Team Y wins the recruit is he Team Y spends more money on the recruit. Sure, the extra promises would help, but does anyone believe promises are worth more than, say, an $800-$1000 Campus Visit? An important part of this is how the effort cap ensures that both teams still have $90k to spend on other recruits, so the B- didn't have to overspend and make his team more vulnerable to other battles to try and land this guy.
The battle becomes not just about whether each team spent the max, but promises TRULY matter, AND the recruit's preferences matter as well. A recruit preferring far schools could permit far-away schools to get away with spending less than the max. A five star recruit could, once in a long while, decide to go to a school with less than B prestige. Heaven forbid that ever happens in today's game.
An option to think about is hidden preferences. Much like how schools have 'hidden' preferences in the types of coaches they hire, players could have 'hidden' preferences in terms of coach longevity, coach reputation, short-term or long-term team success, etc. With an effort cap, these preferences might ACTUALLY matter! In Scenario 1C, Team Y only needed a 102% player-preference multiplier on top of the guarantees to outdo Team X despite equal effort.
What it comes down to is that, despite the cap, the higher prestige school will more likely win the recruit but is far from guaranteed to win the recruit. Pursuing multiple avenues will make it easier for you to land players as that’s more players that may prefer you to another school.
SCENARIO 2 - A+ D1 school with 6 open scholarships looking to land the new Fab 5
One of the criticisms of the effort cap is the notion that A+ teams would dominate MORE. How do you define dominance? I think we can all agree that a dominant team can consistently recruit the best TEAM full of players. Sometimes this is confused with a team’s ability to recruit ONE great player. The effort cap would mean that, if the A+ school wants a player that also prefers said school, that school can probably guarantee landing that player by spending the max amount (admittedly not a huge amount of its budget). But what about an entire class?
From my perspective (of having held at most A prestige in D1, for what it’s worth) even the big schools have to evaluate the following variables continually during the course of recruiting:
1. What recruits do I go after at Cycle 1? And with how much?
2. What recruits should I jump on at Cycle 2 or later?
3. How much money do I have? How much money do I appear to have?
4. Do I want my recruits to appear “very tight” or “not tight”?
5. How much money do my opponents have? How much money will it take to win each recruit?
6. Do I need to pursue backup options?
7. Are there any potential poachers in my area, and how should I adjust my strategy accordingly?
8. Do I need to make any promises?
With a per-cycle effort cap, I anticipate the variables will look more like this:
1.-5. Mostly the same
6. When should I pursue my backup options? When should I offer them scholarships if I’m battling for my first options?
7. Are there any potential poachers in my area, and how should I adjust my strategy accordingly? (Note that the threat of poaching goes way down, especially if you’ve been putting in max effort per cycle)
8. What promises can I afford to make? What promises are my opponents likely making?
9. What recruits should I be putting max effort into every cycle, battlegrounds or not?
10. What are my targeted recruits’ preferences? How will it affect the outcomes of recruiting battles?
11. How will the outcomes of other battles affect the outcomes of my battles? Will any of my opponents back off automatically if they win other battles?
So an A+ team with 6 openings and $120k in the bank, say, wants 5 recruits, one for each position. He identifies his top choice for each spot and a backup option (PG1, PG2, SG1, etc.) Now remember, since max effort still leaves a lot of your budget, there’s less of a deterrent for pursuing multiple recruits at once. This goes for every team, so there will be more battling. His outlook could be the following:
PG1 – Five star. Prefers me, good enough to start right away for me, I can guarantee myself this recruit. I will put in the max to start and if there’s any threat, put in the max every cycle. (note that the max likely means anywhere from $10k-$30k depending on the distance of the recruit)
PG2 – Two star. No need to worry since PG1 is a sure thing
SG1 – Four star. Shows no real preference towards me, but another equidistant A school is going after him. I really shouldn’t be making him any promises, but I will since the A is probably promising him a lot I will make a few. I have to put in the max with him unless the A is backing off.
SG2 – Two star. I might not get SG1 so I will have to make sure I have a shot at him come signing time. A B- school likes him but I can probably scare him off.
SF1 – International stud. Another A+ also wants him who has 5 openings. This will be my biggest battle. Max effort and guarantees all the way.
SF2 – One star. A C+ likes him and might put the max into him just for kicks, but I won’t go heavy unless the I’m going to lose the SF1. There’s a slim chance I will be too late if the C+ does the max and makes promises. I probably won’t get a worth SF if that happens.
PF1 – Four star. Can’t guarantee him much or else I’ll really hurt my team next year. Despite 6 openings I could make the NT if I play my upperclassmen. I have to go the max since an A- AND a B+ are on him too. I hope they don’t give max effort and promises. Hope.
PF2 – One star. High potential guy, no real competitors. Thank god. I will put just enough effort in and hope nobody poaches.
C1 – Three star. I will probably not be able to afford going max on him given my other expenses. An A- wants him but the A- is involved in a lot of other battles. Taking this one cycle-by-cycle.
C2 – Three star. An A, a B+ and a C+ all want him. ****.
Max effort means freedom to challenge for more players. The players could make slightly unorthodox decisions based on player preferences. Once signings begin, the dominoes will fall, and the aforementioned Three Star C2 might have nobody considering him anymore after signings start, who knows? More variables, more fun, and satisfyingly realistic, too.
I think getting the ability to plan cycles in advance would be vital for making this work, though.
Could WhatIf royally screw up a cycle cap? Absolutely. Could it be a lot better than it is now? I think so.