Posted by darnoc29099 on 3/24/2016 6:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by gillispie1 on 3/24/2016 4:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ggallagh on 3/24/2016 3:37:00 PM (view original):
There seem to be 3 tiers of effort / considering when only one school is considering a recruit. From what I have seen, there is nothing to indicate any hierarchy to the messages within a tier. I have watched WOTs go from "keeping options open" to "had some attention" to "early frontrunner" and then back to the 1st message throughout recruiting while putting no more effort into the recruit.
The amount of effort that you need to put into a recruit to get from the 1st tier to the 2nd or 3rd tiers will vary depending on how the recruit perceives himself relative to your team's prestige.
The 1st level of messages are the 3 messages that you posted: *** keeping options wide open; Had some attention from *** but very open; and *** early frontrunner, but not sold.
The 2nd level of messages include: *** Likes him but he may not be a priority; He's definitely leaning towards ***, but sources say he's not 100% sold; and *** seems to be the favorite - right now.
The 3rd level includes: *** seems *very* tight with him; Insiders say he is a very high priority for ***; Seems *Very* solid to ***
this is correct - within a tier/category, there is absolutely no difference. there are 3 messages in the top category, 2 in the middle category, and 4 in the lowest (wide open) category.
I've wondered about the tier 3 messages though. At D1 I've had the "very high priority" message change to *tight* when considering credit kicks in without putting in any additional effort-this actually happened to all 3 of my recruits last season in Crum. Can't say I've noticed that with the tier 1 messages, or, I haven't paid close enough attention.
it happens all the time in tier 3, although i don't watch for it anymore. when i watched for it, it happened all the time. at one point in time, i was skeptical there were really only 2 categories (that was the conventional wisdom for a while, girt was pushing it), with 3 strong messages and 6 weak ones. so, i watched all my recruits at all my programs, and watch the order of changes of messages. actually, going from a->b with no effort (where a and b are WOTS messages), i didn't assume meant they were the same level, but it meant b >= a, because of considering credit. seeing a->b and b->a meant a=b. i got lazy and quit without finishing, but had proven the top 3 messages had to be equal, and also, that there was no possible 3/3 split among the lower messages to make them low/medium messages - there were at least 4 low messages. i should have kept going, only needed a few more data points to prove the groups, and i would have seen it was 4 low and 2 medium. but, with 9 messages i figured if there were 3 categories, there'd be 3 messages each. so i figured girt was right and moved on. but then over time i saw too many players keep showing those mid tier messages and not switching to the low tier, and realized it was 3/2/4 messages... sneaky... not sure why they'd do that. the forum community would figure it out eventually, is it just to throw off casual coaches? not really a fan of that approach.