One problem new coaches tend to have is overcomplicating the game. You need to be aware that your sim players aren't in any way actually running a triangle offense (or any offense). There's nothing in the game code to actually represent players moving around a court. It just basically uses a series of probability calculations and a random number generator to spit out results. What offense you're playing and what defense your opponent is playing are simply inputs into the probability calculations. So in this case, based on what we've been told and the accumulated experience of the coaching base, perimeter shooters are slightly more effective in the flex offense. So maybe if you're running flex, this might happen:
1) The engine determines if there is a turnover early in the possession. Inputs include a baseline probability and some player factors largely related to your PG, but also *maybe* the speed of the opposing team. Let's assume no turnover occurs; then move on to:
2) Who takes the shot. Inputs are basically your distros. Let's say it decides the 3-point shooter is going to get this possession.
3) What kind of shot? Your 3-point settings and the defensive positioning matter here, as well as the relative PER and LP ratings of the player in question. Let's say it's a 3-point shot.
4) Does it go in? This one uses a lot of ratings (in this case, probably SPD, PER, BH, IQ, and teammates' passing of the shooter, and SPD, DEF, ATH, SB, IQ of the defender; if there's a doubleteam it's probably even more complicated) and certainly considers both the offensive and defensive set, and probably also the defensive positioning. Basically, if you're playing flex, expect the baseline 3-point rate to be a little bit higher than in other offenses. So this is where your offensive strategy comes into play.
I realize I'm ignoring fouls and later-in-the-possession turnovers here. I'm trying to simplify a little bit.
One other point that's been alluded to in this thread is the balance principle. Basically, in triangle you can get away with giving one guy up to 50% of your shots without a penalty, and this doesn't seem to be true in motion and flex. So if the guy shooting has shot too often, your baseline may come back down. This is why it has been suggested that for one guy taking a ton of shots, triangle may be the best option, even if the above indicates that flex should be. There are certainly competing factors in the scenario of one good shooter dominating the distro, and I don't think anyone could accurately give you a crossover point at which you'd be better off running triangle than flex for your shooter, though I suspect some would guess. Obviously, with the impact of IQ, you're not going to switch offenses season after season and find a lot of success, so in the long run you just have to try to recruit the guys who fit the system you want to play.
One last thing worth saying is that most of the better coaches will agree that for the best teams, motion and flex are probably more efficient offenses than the triangle, but for "normal," IE unbalanced, teams, triangle may be a better option. If you want to try to recruit all players who can score at least a little bit, then you play motion or flex. The absolute best-ever type teams are probably best off playing one of these offenses. But if you want the freedom to recruit some guys who are just rebounders and defenders, or just distributing PGs who can defend, then triangle is probably your best bet, because it does tend to be more flexible on the allocation of distro that will work well. From my perspective, at D3, even your average title team is probably better off playing triangle than motion or flex. But a lot of that has to do with how coaches want to recruit; it's certainly possible to recruit an offensive "balanced" team at D3. (Balanced is in quotes because you still want to have big differences in distro, just not AS big. I'm comfortable putting a starter at 0-2 and having my top scorer(s) at 20+ in the triangle, and I think those gaps are too big for ideal efficiency in motion. But a 2 and a 10 would certainly be fine.)
3/25/2016 5:38 PM (edited)