A Petition (& rant) to Seble: Fix Recruiting NOW!! Topic

Iguana1
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OR, I probably tracked those recruits in the beta test as close as anyone.  We went through close to 10 batches of them.   If people don't like the disparity now they should have seen some of the early batches in the beta world.


I was and still am in favor of curbing the number of players that max out with a rating in the upper 90's.  During the beta test I counted over 70 players on the active roster in Allen-ACC that had a 95+ DEF rating.  That just didn't make sense to me that half the players were "elite".

I looked at the Allen recruits over the weekend.  Here's a comparison of this upcoming class vs the combined class for season 40-41 (pre engine switch)
I just listed the overall rating points broken out by the position rank.  Skipped the jucos since their rankings have been modified to reflex their class.
These are for all positions combined
                          PREV     NEW      DIF
top 1-5               710        763      +53
6-25                   658        655       - 3
26-50                 621        583      -38
51-100               578       551       -27 
101-150             545       523      -22
151-200             516       501      -15

To reduce the final ratings you need to either reduce the starting points which we see apparently was done  (maybe somewhere in the 15-20 point range would have been a bit more in line),  or to keep the final numbers down you need to reduce the potential gains.  I haven't spent much time looking at mid-range D1 prospects but many feel the potentials have dropped across the board.  If so, that sounds like the old double whammy.

From what I've seen in four D2 recruiting sessions with the new recruits there has been a small drop in beginning numbers but the top D2 teams are able to reach higher up than before and like I said earlier a bit more red in potential, a little less average in potential and a bit more high-high in potential. 

We'll see in a couple seasons if the D2 team ratings have dropped more than the original rating adjustment of about 15-20 points.  If so, then it would seem that the changes in potential have also affected the final ratings. 


8/16/2010 7:06 PM (edited)
moy23
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Posted by girt25 on 8/16/2010 6:33:00 PM (view original):
NT starts tonight in Allen, and the BCS conferences received 29 NT bids. In the previous four seasons they'd gotten between 21-24.
over the last 4 seasons in rupp - bcs had at least 25 NT appearances/season.  26/25/26/28.  only the last season (28) reflects the incoming frosh of new recruits.  

it doesn't mean anything now... maybe in 4-5 seasons.
8/16/2010 7:00 PM
oldresorter
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tark was 32 this past season. tark is the farthest along in terms of seble's new recruits.  That might seem meaningful, but tark always has been dominated by a big 7, I went back 15 seasons, 28 is pretty common, the 2 prior to the 32 were both 31's.  The mountain west usually gets 3-5, so added to that 32, there are not many at large's to be divided up by the other conferences.
8/16/2010 7:17 PM
oldresorter
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Posted by Iguana1 on 8/16/2010 7:06:00 PM (view original):
OR, I probably tracked those recruits in the beta test as close as anyone.  We went through close to 10 batches of them.   If people don't like the disparity now they should have seen some of the early batches in the beta world.


I was and still am in favor of curbing the number of players that max out with a rating in the upper 90's.  During the beta test I counted over 70 players on the active roster in Allen-ACC that had a 95+ DEF rating.  That just didn't make sense to me that half the players were "elite".

I looked at the Allen recruits over the weekend.  Here's a comparison of this upcoming class vs the combined class for season 40-41 (pre engine switch)
I just listed the overall rating points broken out by the position rank.  Skipped the jucos since their rankings have been modified to reflex their class.
These are for all positions combined
                          PREV     NEW      DIF
top 1-5               710        763      +53
6-25                   658        655       - 3
26-50                 621        583      -38
51-100               578       551       -27 
101-150             545       523      -22
151-200             516       501      -15

To reduce the final ratings you need to either reduce the starting points which we see apparently was done  (maybe somewhere in the 15-20 point range would have been a bit more in line),  or to keep the final numbers down you need to reduce the potential gains.  I haven't spent much time looking at mid-range D1 prospects but many feel the potentials have dropped across the board.  If so, that sounds like the old double whammy.

From what I've seen in four D2 recruiting sessions with the new recruits there has been a small drop in beginning numbers but the top D2 teams are able to reach higher up than before and like I said earlier a bit more red in potential, a little less average in potential and a bit more high-high in potential. 

We'll see in a couple seasons if the D2 team ratings have dropped more than the original rating adjustment of about 15-20 points.  If so, then it would seem that the changes in potential have also affected the final ratings. 


thx for responding - great info as always, was the top 6-25 linear, it is my perception that in the new system, roughly 1 thru 10 are elite, and 11 thru 25 are pretty much like 26 thru 50?  But you add 53 to the top 5 and take 38 away from 26 thur 50, that is the gap we 'feel' - on average a 91 point change and on average a 180 point gap.
8/16/2010 7:20 PM
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Iguana1
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the top 50 overall are just as good or better.   I don't think anyone could argue that the top 50 of any position are just as strong.

the numbers I showed are of the position rank not the overall rank.
8/16/2010 7:27 PM
moy23
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Posted by Iguana1 on 8/16/2010 7:27:00 PM (view original):
the top 50 overall are just as good or better.   I don't think anyone could argue that the top 50 of any position are just as strong.

the numbers I showed are of the position rank not the overall rank.
you are using overall attribute rates based off position rank, no?  

so the top 5 at each position (25 players) avg'd 710 overall ratings before, 763 now, or am I misunderstanding?
8/16/2010 7:33 PM
moy23
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ahhh - I get it... the top 1-5 would be a 25 player sample. 

sorry daalt. you win this round.
8/16/2010 7:59 PM (edited)
Iguana1
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here's a closer look at those mid to lower level D1 recruits; those ranked from # 26-100 at their positions.

the blue number is Allen seasons 40-41 (pre engine switch).  The black number underneath is the combined seasons 43-44 (post-switch).
 
                   ATH    SPD   REB   DEF   BLK    LP   PER     BH   PAS    WE   STA   DUR   FT   TOTAL  
PG              48        77      15       67       9        6      44      79     75      51      73     51     71      594
                    57        69       6        53        2     11      61      63     60      59      72     53     72      565      -29
SG              52        66       20      69      10     19     63       64     63     56       72     52     69      607
                   52        55       17      50        6      26     60       52     51     58       69     52     70      548      -59
SF               49        55      38      72       24     49     50      38      38     55       67     48     68       584
                    55        45      37      52      25      46     46      43      44     56       68     53     69       570     -14
PF               51        44      61      66       62     64     26       18     25     56       67     51     65       590
                    56        34      54      53      46      59     32       34     39     57       65     53     68       581     - 9
 C                45        33      75      69       72     77      6          7      36     50       64     54     66       587
                    54        20      72      51       67     61    12        22     29     57       64     52     66       559     -28
8/16/2010 7:49 PM
daalter
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Posted by moy23 on 8/16/2010 7:59:00 PM (view original):
ahhh - I get it... the top 1-5 would be a 25 player sample. 

sorry daalt. you win this round.
Sounds like you might need a drink ...
8/16/2010 8:08 PM
moy23
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Posted by Iguana1 on 8/16/2010 7:49:00 PM (view original):
here's a closer look at those mid to lower level D1 recruits; those ranked from # 26-100 at their positions.

the blue number is Allen seasons 40-41 (pre engine switch).  The black number underneath is the combined seasons 43-44 (post-switch).
 
                   ATH    SPD   REB   DEF   BLK    LP   PER     BH   PAS    WE   STA   DUR   FT   TOTAL  
PG              48        77      15       67       9        6      44      79     75      51      73     51     71      594
                    57        69       6        53        2     11      61      63     60      59      72     53     72      565      -29
SG              52        66       20      69      10     19     63       64     63     56       72     52     69      607
                   52        55       17      50        6      26     60       52     51     58       69     52     70      548      -59
SF               49        55      38      72       24     49     50      38      38     55       67     48     68       584
                    55        45      37      52      25      46     46      43      44     56       68     53     69       570     -14
PF               51        44      61      66       62     64     26       18     25     56       67     51     65       590
                    56        34      54      53      46      59     32       34     39     57       65     53     68       581     - 9
 C                45        33      75      69       72     77      6          7      36     50       64     54     66       587
                    54        20      72      51       67     61    12        22     29     57       64     52     66       559     -28
nice work iguana.  at first I was like holy **** - look at the overalls?!?!?   

looking deeper - it looks like the biggest diff is in defense. which is fine if the point was to have the elites perform more like elites on the court and not just in attributes.

I like how the PG starting PER went up.  finally.  
As for Cs and PFs - BH and PAS went up which is good imo.  REB/LP will end up ~low 90s by SR seasons.
Looking at PG BH/PAS looks like they will end up at mid to high 80s by SR seasons, SGs at low to mid 70s.  SGs seem a few points too low.

so to clarify this time before running my mouth (not that I am going to) - this list would basically include recruits in the top 125-625 range for all intensive purposes? 

 
8/16/2010 8:16 PM (edited)
moy23
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Posted by daalter on 8/16/2010 8:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by moy23 on 8/16/2010 7:59:00 PM (view original):
ahhh - I get it... the top 1-5 would be a 25 player sample. 

sorry daalt. you win this round.
Sounds like you might need a drink ...
I do... 
8/16/2010 8:14 PM
Iguana1
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OR asked if the decrease was lineal;

these are the average over ratings for 4 seasons of new recruits.  2-Allen and 2-Rupp
the first line shows the 4 season avg for the #1, #2, #3, #4, #5 at their positions.   And then the avg for those 20 players.
second line shows the 4 season averages for players ranked 6th - 10th.  and the dropoff from the previous set.

top  5:    773, 761, 748, 735, 726     avg: 749     --
 6-10:    720, 712, 704. 694, 686     avg: 703    - 46
11-15:   677, 672, 664, 656, 652     avg: 664    - 39
16-20:   647, 644, 638, 631, 625     avg: 637    - 27
21-25:   619, 622, 617, 613, 605     avg: 615    - 22
26-30:   604, 604, 603, 597, 593     avg: 600    - 15
31-35:   590, 589, 586, 590, 591     avg: 589    - 11
36-40:   590, 584, 581, 581, 582     avg: 584    -  5

almost a perfect curve with decreasing variance.

8/16/2010 8:34 PM (edited)
Iguana1
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and yes moy, that's roughly the #126-500 overall.  A 75 player sample of each of the 5 positions for each season.
I don't have the old seasons by individual player for a better comparison of the top guys.  Just the totals averages of 1-5, 6-25, 26-50 etc..
8/16/2010 8:38 PM (edited)
jbasnight
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After defense, the second biggest drop appears to be in speed, which is what I've seen: You want a fast team, get some top-15 recruits.

And yes, it was too easy to build a team of studs before. But with speed in particular there seems to be little randomization. The elite recruits are also the fastest. It's very difficult to find players with elite-level speed outside of the top-ranked players, even if you're willing to sacrifice a lot of other things.
8/16/2010 8:45 PM
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