Posted by namshub on 8/19/2010 12:16:00 PM (view original):
the bottom line in this thread seems to be that some strongly think that you can no longer build a successful team at a mid-level school with the current recruit distribution.  am i right in consolidating this whole thread into that theory?  if so, i have an interesting proposition for one of the proponents of this theory.  let me know.

nams - you sort of are putting words in people's mouths, and it is enormously clever to take thousands of words and sum them up into ten or twelve to suit your needs, it also is an old parlor trick when negotiating contracts, which I used to do.

It also is a trick used by negotiators when they are getting there butts handed to them by the other side in the debate.

that being said, in response to your attempt at summarizing, if I could pick the school and the world, I am pretty sure I could make the NT within three years with a D prestige school, more than likely a year or two sooner, and probably sustain that level of competence for quite some time, does not mean much, because this is not about the competence of any given coach or group of coaches, it is about ...

the odds for the average guy

whatever the odds were for the average coach at the average mid level school of being competitive with the elite schools used to be, they went down with this new change.  How much - honestly I don't know.  What will that average coach do as result - I don't know that either.  I know what I did with my mid major, I'm all for a fair fight, I am willing to even undertake being an underdog it just has to feel like sort of a fair fight to me, this doesn't.

In all honesty, does it really to you?  You are a vet coach, a great one, you know this game well, you gotta sort of at least be a little worried you are wrong?

Posted by brianp87 on 8/19/2010 1:45:00 PM (view original):
Im the avg coach at a mid level school and Im screwed.  In fact i couldnt even get a job at a mid major school when i saw the writing on the wall.  There is now little to no chance for me to win a title at a lower level school  with the current state off ee's, recruits and baseline prestige

Should admittedly average coaches at a lower level school have a real opportunity to win championships? Really? I mean, shouldn't you have to do an outstanding job at a low-level school to win an NT?

Posted by acn24 on 8/19/2010 8:35:00 AM (view original):

For those thinking that early entries might even things out a little, initial evidence is not so much.

One freshman declared early in Tark (#1 PF, #4 Overall recruit, NFOY, started for the national champ) - beyond that the usual collection of Juniors (with the surprising exception of the NPOY).

Too early to judge. Those juniors are old system recruits, which is going to screw up who gets selected as an EE.

Posted by cbriese on 8/19/2010 2:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianp87 on 8/19/2010 1:45:00 PM (view original):
Im the avg coach at a mid level school and Im screwed.  In fact i couldnt even get a job at a mid major school when i saw the writing on the wall.  There is now little to no chance for me to win a title at a lower level school  with the current state off ee's, recruits and baseline prestige

Should admittedly average coaches at a lower level school have a real opportunity to win championships? Really? I mean, shouldn't you have to do an outstanding job at a low-level school to win an NT?

I have as many tiles as you in 1/3-1/2 the games.  SO yes I expect to win alot more.

Posted by brianp87 on 8/19/2010 2:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cbriese on 8/19/2010 2:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianp87 on 8/19/2010 1:45:00 PM (view original):
Im the avg coach at a mid level school and Im screwed.  In fact i couldnt even get a job at a mid major school when i saw the writing on the wall.  There is now little to no chance for me to win a title at a lower level school  with the current state off ee's, recruits and baseline prestige

Should admittedly average coaches at a lower level school have a real opportunity to win championships? Really? I mean, shouldn't you have to do an outstanding job at a low-level school to win an NT?

I have as many tiles as you in 1/3-1/2 the games.  SO yes I expect to win alot more.

First you call yourself average, and now you're off touting your own horn...pick a side

Posted by antonsirius on 8/19/2010 2:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by acn24 on 8/19/2010 8:35:00 AM (view original):

For those thinking that early entries might even things out a little, initial evidence is not so much.

One freshman declared early in Tark (#1 PF, #4 Overall recruit, NFOY, started for the national champ) - beyond that the usual collection of Juniors (with the surprising exception of the NPOY).

Too early to judge. Those juniors are old system recruits, which is going to screw up who gets selected as an EE.

I haven't put a lot of thought into this, but if the top level of recruits are better than they used to be, how will things be different in two seasons when the current freshman who didn't leave are now juniors and even better than the current juniors and thus be in line ahead of the then-freshman?

O.R.  is spot on with what is happening.

Posted by brianp87 on 8/19/2010 3:07:00 PM (view original):
O.R.  is spot on with what is happening.

this is much smarter than trying to speak for yourself, well played

Posted by namshub on 8/19/2010 12:16:00 PM (view original):
the bottom line in this thread seems to be that some strongly think that you can no longer build a successful team at a mid-level school with the current recruit distribution.  am i right in consolidating this whole thread into that theory?  if so, i have an interesting proposition for one of the proponents of this theory.  let me know.

I don't recall anyone saying that you can no longer build a successful team from a mid-level school. I'm sure I could've stayed at Montana and maintained a consistent level of success. (And I initially grabbed MT because I felt it would be a unique challenge to compete with the big boys at a remote school w. low baseline prestige.)

What a lot of people are saying is that these changes have made it much, much harder to do so -- to the point that it is detrimental to HD.

Posted by daalter on 8/19/2010 3:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by namshub on 8/19/2010 12:16:00 PM (view original):
the bottom line in this thread seems to be that some strongly think that you can no longer build a successful team at a mid-level school with the current recruit distribution.  am i right in consolidating this whole thread into that theory?  if so, i have an interesting proposition for one of the proponents of this theory.  let me know.

I don't recall anyone saying that you can no longer build a successful team from a mid-level school. I'm sure I could've stayed at Montana and maintained a consistent level of success. (And I initially grabbed MT because I felt it would be a unique challenge to compete with the big boys at a remote school w. low baseline prestige.)

What a lot of people are saying is that these changes have made it much, much harder to do so -- to the point that it is detrimental to HD.

Its gonna be a really really tough task for someone im not sure I will be able to.  The odds are stacked against it.

Posted by oldresorter on 8/19/2010

http://whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=1592658

by the way, he is a 6'5" 194 lb, 99 ath, 50 something speed guy who can't play more than 15-18 minutes per game, big picture, is this realistic from what you guys know about basketball? Almost all my teams now have a player like that, all I can say, I try to avoid it in recruiting, but not to the extent I will recruit a 580 guy instead?

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

No, not at all realistic. It's just silly. And there are a lot of guys like that.

Ha ha....but seriously, and average coach at a minor D prestige school should be excited to make the NT thanks to a CT win and be thankful they don't lose by 40 to UNC.

The key is that the C prestige-level schools (MVC/CUSA/WCC/etc) with an average coach can win an NT game now and then and be competitive with the 5th-7th teams in the Big 12/SEC/etc.

I am not convinced that there is anything wrong here. 
Yet.  But in 3-4 more seasons I could be. 

Posted by reinsel on 8/19/2010 3:27:00 PM (view original):
Ha ha....but seriously, and average coach at a minor D prestige school should be excited to make the NT thanks to a CT win and be thankful they don't lose by 40 to UNC.

The key is that the C prestige-level schools (MVC/CUSA/WCC/etc) with an average coach can win an NT game now and then and be competitive with the 5th-7th teams in the Big 12/SEC/etc.

I am not convinced that there is anything wrong here. 
Yet.  But in 3-4 more seasons I could be. 

The first part of your argument is spot on for real life college basketball.  I don't think that, some bizarre collection of attributes aside, anyone would argue that the changes to the recruiting pool is a step towards more realism in HD. 

However, that doesn't necessarily make it an improvement to HD as a whole - and that is the real crux of this argument.