Seble - show us the stats Topic

haasdr
Posts: 99 (0)
Hall of Famer
163 2 41 4
Prospect
Posted by dahsdebater on 9/13/2010 8:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by summerteeth on 9/13/2010 1:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mullycj on 9/12/2010 8:48:00 AM (view original):
There used to be a pinned thread from Tarek that showed shooting %, 3pt%, and FT% for the three divisions vs NCAA.

I think the community would be interested in seeing those results for the current season accross worlds.  The general consesus is the current engine is out of whack and teams are shooting too high.     You obviously have a different view.

Please share with us the stats you see to support your view. 
every time i have tried to argue this, other coaches tell me it's because too many coaches play a minus defense and that skews the WIS stats vs real life stats, although my counter argument would be "who's to say that real life coaches don't play minus defense more often either."  since there's no way to know exactly for sure, it's best to at least get the engine to get the WIS shooting %s near RL %s.

i would tend to agree with you that shooting %s still seem too high to me.
I can counter that counter argument.  The definition of a 0 defense is that it is average.  That average would be roughly equivalent to the average of all real-life teams.  So if every team played at a 0 defense and we played a fairly realistic cross-section of offenses and defenses as compared to real-life and THEN the shooting percentages were still off, that would imply that they were in fact skewed.  But if in fact sim players trend towards - defenses - which in my limited experience does seem to be the case, at least in D3 - then we should expect to have somewhat elevated 3% and depressed 2% as compared to RL.
i didn't mention before, but the other thing is that i'm not sure the trend is always towards minus defenses.  i see quite a lot of plus defenses, especially in conference play.

i also recall Tarek mentioned a few years back that + and - defenses weren't meant to be as drastic as the coaches thought they were.  so if we assume, in an extreme scenario, that all coaches defenses average to, say, -1 or even -1.5 instead of 0, the shooting %s should still be VERY CLOSE to the NCAA averages.  I would expect them to be within .50% instead of 2 or 3 %.

in any case, it will be interesting to see if things change when all worlds have 4 seasons of new engine players in them.  i suspect it won't change much but it is possible.     


9/14/2010 1:55 AM
moy23
Posts: 13754 (0)
Hall of Famer
2 57 251 112
Prospect
Posted by coach_billyg on 9/13/2010 12:49:00 AM (view original):
Posted by isack24 on 9/12/2010 5:15:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mullycj on 9/12/2010 8:48:00 AM (view original):
There used to be a pinned thread from Tarek that showed shooting %, 3pt%, and FT% for the three divisions vs NCAA.

I think the community would be interested in seeing those results for the current season accross worlds.  The general consesus is the current engine is out of whack and teams are shooting too high.     You obviously have a different view.

Please share with us the stats you see to support your view. 
I'm not sure that's a general consensus, nor do I think it needs to be completely in line with the real NCAA numbers.
i do think it is a general consensus. its important the sim engine behaves closely to real basketball so that real basketball strategy applies, etc... if there is a slight deviation from reality in the stats, i think that is acceptable, but it should definitely try to be minimized. there are also a number of factors that could push HD stats out of whack with reality - like, if people play - defenses more than + defenses, 3pta and 3pt% will reflect higher than the NCAA. but in general, we need the sim engine to mimick reality. in the extreme case, you could make it totally different, but i really struggle to believe anybody would play it then.
Since when is 20 or so people out of 3000 or so the " general consensus "?

I have no problem that people think the engine needs to be tweaked.... but it ****** me off when people use **** like "general consensus" "clearly this must be..." "the fact of the matter is" .... the language is based on falsehoods and suggests that anyone not of "the opinion" must be wrong.

I mean really .... here is a guy that started a thread begging to see the real#s to prove the engines validity and then goes off and conjured out of thin air that the general consensus is on his side. Maybe he should provide real #s about the general consensus before Seble provides any real data back about the engine.


End rant. No offense.
9/14/2010 7:58 AM
mullycj
Posts: 2737 (0)
Hall of Famer
214 1
Prospect
Players/recruits have been changing since season #1. That should not have a naterial effect on overall shooting %s. it's not like Seble created a bunch of high PER recruits without adjusting the other ratings.

What some of us (MOY) are seeing is higher overall AND 3PT shooting %s accross the better teams. It's farily obvious (if you take the time to look) to see that the top end teams are shooting higher than real life counterparts. What is not easy to see is if HD as a whole is shooting materially higher than real life counterparts. That's what we need Seble for.
9/14/2010 10:09 AM
arssanguinus
Posts: 1120 (0)
Hall of Famer
283 1
Pro

SOme ratings were lowered more than other ratings, for example, ATH and speed, they weren't lowered evenly across the board for all positions. . and many statistical outcomes are the combination of many different ratings, not of just Perimeter shooting for example.   SO I really still can't see how changing the balance and level of the ratings each year coudl fail to have an effect on the stats as long as its still a mix of the old type and new type of player.   It, (To me)(No I am not saying those who disagree with me lack common sense) would seem to defy common sense:  If you change the inputs, especially if you have two fairly DIFFERENT sets of inputs coexisting, how can it not have a detectable effect on the outputs?

9/14/2010 10:21 AM
arssanguinus
Posts: 1120 (0)
Hall of Famer
283 1
Pro
PS: NP regarding the apology.  Its easy to misinterpret typing and there is no chance to correct someone's interpretation of what you said before they respond, so its easy to make mistakes.
9/14/2010 10:25 AM
moy23
Posts: 13754 (0)
Hall of Famer
2 57 251 112
Prospect
Posted by mullycj on 9/14/2010 10:09:00 AM (view original):
Players/recruits have been changing since season #1. That should not have a naterial effect on overall shooting %s. it's not like Seble created a bunch of high PER recruits without adjusting the other ratings.

What some of us (MOY) are seeing is higher overall AND 3PT shooting %s accross the better teams. It's farily obvious (if you take the time to look) to see that the top end teams are shooting higher than real life counterparts. What is not easy to see is if HD as a whole is shooting materially higher than real life counterparts. That's what we need Seble for.
Thanks ;)
9/14/2010 1:10 PM
oldresorter
Posts: 646 (0)
Hall of Famer
1110 1
Prospect
here is some data I quickly grabbed from the team stats window provided in HD, vs NCAA #'s I pulled, not quite apples and apples (diff # of d1 ncaa teams, plus I could not quickly get the worst shooting teams, but had to settle for the best defensive teams), but I think you get the idea.  Those are the only worlds that have enough games in them, I am almost sure worlds 8 and 10 (2 a day worlds) are farther along with new players than worlds 1,2,3.  Nothing that startling, might need a little tweek at some point, but as usual, the way the numbers layout vs real life are pretty decent and also as usual, two sets of eyes could look at the same data and probably use it to prove opposing points.

      World Team FG%      
Rank 1 2 3 8 10 real life
first 52.6 53.2 55.3 55.3 55.7 51.6
25 49.4 49.9 50.4 51.7 52.4 47.3
301 41.7 42.4 41.9 43 42.9 39.5
325 39.2 39.6 39.2 39.3 39.2 37.3
9/14/2010 1:33 PM (edited)
coach_billyg
Posts: 2072 (0)
Hall of Famer
92
Pro
Posted by moy23 on 9/14/2010 7:58:00 AM (view original):
Posted by coach_billyg on 9/13/2010 12:49:00 AM (view original):
Posted by isack24 on 9/12/2010 5:15:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mullycj on 9/12/2010 8:48:00 AM (view original):
There used to be a pinned thread from Tarek that showed shooting %, 3pt%, and FT% for the three divisions vs NCAA.

I think the community would be interested in seeing those results for the current season accross worlds.  The general consesus is the current engine is out of whack and teams are shooting too high.     You obviously have a different view.

Please share with us the stats you see to support your view. 
I'm not sure that's a general consensus, nor do I think it needs to be completely in line with the real NCAA numbers.
i do think it is a general consensus. its important the sim engine behaves closely to real basketball so that real basketball strategy applies, etc... if there is a slight deviation from reality in the stats, i think that is acceptable, but it should definitely try to be minimized. there are also a number of factors that could push HD stats out of whack with reality - like, if people play - defenses more than + defenses, 3pta and 3pt% will reflect higher than the NCAA. but in general, we need the sim engine to mimick reality. in the extreme case, you could make it totally different, but i really struggle to believe anybody would play it then.
Since when is 20 or so people out of 3000 or so the " general consensus "?

I have no problem that people think the engine needs to be tweaked.... but it ****** me off when people use **** like "general consensus" "clearly this must be..." "the fact of the matter is" .... the language is based on falsehoods and suggests that anyone not of "the opinion" must be wrong.

I mean really .... here is a guy that started a thread begging to see the real#s to prove the engines validity and then goes off and conjured out of thin air that the general consensus is on his side. Maybe he should provide real #s about the general consensus before Seble provides any real data back about the engine.


End rant. No offense.
moy - as i mentioned later, when i agreed with the general consensus, i had misread or misspoke or whatever. i corrected that i was agreeing that the general consensus was the game should follow real life stats. not that there was a general consensus that the engine was out of whack. i do feel the engine is a bit out of whack though, as i mentioned later...
9/14/2010 2:57 PM
coach_billyg
Posts: 2072 (0)
Hall of Famer
92
Pro
Posted by mullycj on 9/14/2010 10:09:00 AM (view original):
Players/recruits have been changing since season #1. That should not have a naterial effect on overall shooting %s. it's not like Seble created a bunch of high PER recruits without adjusting the other ratings.

What some of us (MOY) are seeing is higher overall AND 3PT shooting %s accross the better teams. It's farily obvious (if you take the time to look) to see that the top end teams are shooting higher than real life counterparts. What is not easy to see is if HD as a whole is shooting materially higher than real life counterparts. That's what we need Seble for.
i pretty much agree completely here. seems the top end players i have are shooting better than they should, using how they would perform in the old engine as a metric. i have no idea if this is reflected in HD as a whole, however. but i am very very much aware that some teams are ridiculously good on offense and i really don't feel that should be the case.

and, even if its not the trend in all of HD, that doesn't mean nothing is wrong. it might mean people haven't caught on yet. my gut feeling is, give me 10 at least decent teams, and at least 7 of them would shoot significantly higher in this engine than the last. a lot has changed - and as we all know, the smallest of changes can have serious unexpected trickle down effects. well, those trickle down effects are all over the place right now, so its hard to read, but i am pretty confident that if the engine was locked for the next 10 months, then in 10 months, it would be obvious to those paying attention that offenses have gotten a LOT better in terms of fg% and even 3pt% (at least outside d1 on the 3pt%).
9/14/2010 3:04 PM
jetwildcat
Posts: 1204 (0)
Hall of Famer
198 3
Prospect
Posted by dahsdebater on 9/13/2010 8:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by summerteeth on 9/13/2010 1:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mullycj on 9/12/2010 8:48:00 AM (view original):
There used to be a pinned thread from Tarek that showed shooting %, 3pt%, and FT% for the three divisions vs NCAA.

I think the community would be interested in seeing those results for the current season accross worlds.  The general consesus is the current engine is out of whack and teams are shooting too high.     You obviously have a different view.

Please share with us the stats you see to support your view. 
every time i have tried to argue this, other coaches tell me it's because too many coaches play a minus defense and that skews the WIS stats vs real life stats, although my counter argument would be "who's to say that real life coaches don't play minus defense more often either."  since there's no way to know exactly for sure, it's best to at least get the engine to get the WIS shooting %s near RL %s.

i would tend to agree with you that shooting %s still seem too high to me.
I can counter that counter argument.  The definition of a 0 defense is that it is average.  That average would be roughly equivalent to the average of all real-life teams.  So if every team played at a 0 defense and we played a fairly realistic cross-section of offenses and defenses as compared to real-life and THEN the shooting percentages were still off, that would imply that they were in fact skewed.  But if in fact sim players trend towards - defenses - which in my limited experience does seem to be the case, at least in D3 - then we should expect to have somewhat elevated 3% and depressed 2% as compared to RL.
i'd define "0" as "half-way between the tightest and loosest you can guard someone" meaning that, yes, everyone could be playing at a minus. 0 isnt the average, its the middle of the spectrum.
9/14/2010 4:33 PM
jetwildcat
Posts: 1204 (0)
Hall of Famer
198 3
Prospect
Posted by moy23 on 9/14/2010 7:58:00 AM (view original):
Posted by coach_billyg on 9/13/2010 12:49:00 AM (view original):
Posted by isack24 on 9/12/2010 5:15:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mullycj on 9/12/2010 8:48:00 AM (view original):
There used to be a pinned thread from Tarek that showed shooting %, 3pt%, and FT% for the three divisions vs NCAA.

I think the community would be interested in seeing those results for the current season accross worlds.  The general consesus is the current engine is out of whack and teams are shooting too high.     You obviously have a different view.

Please share with us the stats you see to support your view. 
I'm not sure that's a general consensus, nor do I think it needs to be completely in line with the real NCAA numbers.
i do think it is a general consensus. its important the sim engine behaves closely to real basketball so that real basketball strategy applies, etc... if there is a slight deviation from reality in the stats, i think that is acceptable, but it should definitely try to be minimized. there are also a number of factors that could push HD stats out of whack with reality - like, if people play - defenses more than + defenses, 3pta and 3pt% will reflect higher than the NCAA. but in general, we need the sim engine to mimick reality. in the extreme case, you could make it totally different, but i really struggle to believe anybody would play it then.
Since when is 20 or so people out of 3000 or so the " general consensus "?

I have no problem that people think the engine needs to be tweaked.... but it ****** me off when people use **** like "general consensus" "clearly this must be..." "the fact of the matter is" .... the language is based on falsehoods and suggests that anyone not of "the opinion" must be wrong.

I mean really .... here is a guy that started a thread begging to see the real#s to prove the engines validity and then goes off and conjured out of thin air that the general consensus is on his side. Maybe he should provide real #s about the general consensus before Seble provides any real data back about the engine.


End rant. No offense.
as we all know, 1 person on the forum represents one billion people. thus, 20 billion people think the shooting %'s are out of line
9/14/2010 4:36 PM
jetwildcat
Posts: 1204 (0)
Hall of Famer
198 3
Prospect
Posted by oldresorter on 9/14/2010 1:33:00 PM (view original):
here is some data I quickly grabbed from the team stats window provided in HD, vs NCAA #'s I pulled, not quite apples and apples (diff # of d1 ncaa teams, plus I could not quickly get the worst shooting teams, but had to settle for the best defensive teams), but I think you get the idea.  Those are the only worlds that have enough games in them, I am almost sure worlds 8 and 10 (2 a day worlds) are farther along with new players than worlds 1,2,3.  Nothing that startling, might need a little tweek at some point, but as usual, the way the numbers layout vs real life are pretty decent and also as usual, two sets of eyes could look at the same data and probably use it to prove opposing points.

      World Team FG%      
Rank 1 2 3 8 10 real life
first 52.6 53.2 55.3 55.3 55.7 51.6
25 49.4 49.9 50.4 51.7 52.4 47.3
301 41.7 42.4 41.9 43 42.9 39.5
325 39.2 39.6 39.2 39.3 39.2 37.3
hmm...

how far along exactly are 8 and 10?
9/14/2010 4:37 PM
oldresorter
Posts: 646 (0)
Hall of Famer
1110 1
Prospect
jet, this is not a fact, but I think 8,9,10 have new recruit gen players as frosh thru juniors, 1,2,3 have new players as frosh, and 4,5,6,7 have new players as frosh and sophs, might seem a little odd, but I am pretty sure that is where it stands.  if you were calling me as a lifeline on who wants to be a millionaire, I am 99.9% sure about worlds 4 and 8, 90% sure about the rest, except 6&10, which I am guessing, since my teams are d2 and it would be much harder to tell.
9/14/2010 4:53 PM
jetwildcat
Posts: 1204 (0)
Hall of Famer
198 3
Prospect
the more i think about it, the more i think the FG% trend could change a lot when the old recruits graduate, even if they are only seniors. the top shooting % teams could just be relying on seniors more.

its also a possibility that, since hd teams routinely run 10 and 11 deep, the 10th and 11th players are the ones that have shooting percentages too high. if they were lower, the team % would drop and teams would start using more realistic 9-man rotations.
9/15/2010 12:26 PM
mullycj
Posts: 2737 (0)
Hall of Famer
214 1
Prospect

Do you realize how many teams there are accross all divisions accross all worlds? Changes in recruits, changes in rosters, etc. would all tend to even out when looking at results on a grand scale.
9/15/2010 12:47 PM
◂ Prev 12345 Next ▸
Seble - show us the stats Topic
△Top△Bottom

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2026 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.