Posted by oldresorter on 10/27/2010 7:13:00 AM (view original):
Posted by rusticity on 10/27/2010 2:52:00 AM (view original):
In response to the OP, variance and sample size. Take a gander at a gamelog for a teams leading scorer. I grabbed John Wall. He had 11.8 attempts per game and UK had 58.6 attempts per game. So that's a distro of 20% and yet he had games where he had 5 and 6 attempts in 35 minutes. This is standard. If anything there isn't enough variance and Seble is screwing up the sim by toning down variance in response to threads like this.
I agree with everything you said, with one exception, in order to get wall's 11shots per 55 team shots, his distro must be set higher than 20%, unless he plays 40 minitues, assuming you dish out 100% of the distro.
How much, the formula would be:
intended % times 40 divided by actual minutes played.
in walls case, if he averaged 32 minutes per game, 20 x 40 / 32 = 25%, again, assuming all 100% is given out
if less than 100% is given out, the formula changes to the result times 100 divided by the actual % given out.
Lots of math, sorry
no arguments with the math here - thanks for clarifying as I certainly did not mean to imply that Wall has a setting of 20% on uk's team page but actually much higher. You do a good job ofof showing why mathematically if you want a player to take 20% of your teams shots like Wall, your settings would have to be higher. I have a guy who takes 25% of my teams shots this year and regularly have him set at 40% for instance. My main point is that someone that who is expected to take 20%+ of his teams shots on average will still have a couple games where he takes less than 10% of the shots due to normal variance.
10/28/2010 12:36 AM (edited)