Favored by 52, lost by 2?? Topic

jetwildcat
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Posted by Rails on 11/19/2010 2:56:00 PM (view original):
Obviusly the slow pace wins the game, but furry you make the point that he wore himself out against the press. That's true, but in reality the pressing team would have worn themselves out too.  IRL it's about the number in the rotation, not the stamina levels because those are virtually impossible to measure irl.  Stamina?

I contend that HD sees no difference between 7 guys with 99 stamina and 10 guys with 70 stamina each.  IRL, it's a big difference.  Seble said he has reduced the affect that stamina has, but the problem is that that change doesn't account for the number in a team's rotation.  IRL there is virtually no difference in two teams that play 9 deep.  In HD it can be substantial if stamina levels are even a little higher for one team.
FWIW with the shallower recruit pool in D1, i do expect to see more 9-man rotations in HD. my gtown iba team is currently running 3 players with stamina ratings of 89, 91 and 90 for the 2 G slots and it looks like i can keep up so long as both teams dont run uptempo and nobody presses.
11/19/2010 3:29 PM
furry_nipps
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Posted by Rails on 11/19/2010 2:56:00 PM (view original):
Obviusly the slow pace wins the game, but furry you make the point that he wore himself out against the press. That's true, but in reality the pressing team would have worn themselves out too.  IRL it's about the number in the rotation, not the stamina levels because those are virtually impossible to measure irl.  Stamina?

I contend that HD sees no difference between 7 guys with 99 stamina and 10 guys with 70 stamina each.  IRL, it's a big difference.  Seble said he has reduced the affect that stamina has, but the problem is that that change doesn't account for the number in a team's rotation.  IRL there is virtually no difference in two teams that play 9 deep.  In HD it can be substantial if stamina levels are even a little higher for one team.
From what I saw in the pbp, sim stayed fresh with his better stamina and subbing people in and out. 4 of his starters played more minutes then sim ai starter who played the most for his team. He was having guys in the 70-80 range for stamina play almost 30 mins vrs the press. That was all fine and dandy until the second half where you can see he was tired most of it and thats where sim ai did his damage. The computer had a great subbing pattern to keep his guys fresh and kept the minutes down in the lower side.
11/19/2010 3:50 PM
rusticity
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Grunch. Lol spreads. was -52 the opening line or the close?
11/19/2010 4:41 PM
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dahsdebater
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You've been playing this long and you still think both the Vegas line and OTR are meaningful?
11/20/2010 12:12 AM
furry_nipps
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This is colon we are talking about. 50/50, Enough said.
11/20/2010 12:19 AM
colonels19
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Posted by dahsdebater on 11/20/2010 12:12:00 AM (view original):
You've been playing this long and you still think both the Vegas line and OTR are meaningful?
What I'm saying is, a 1 point win is a very reasonable expectation in this circumstance...should win by a lot more than that....loses by 2?  That just doesn't jive...just because you and a whole bunch of people try to explain it away, doesn't mean that it justifies the occurence.
11/20/2010 12:23 AM
dahsdebater
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OR, maybe the fact that almost nobody is shocked means you haven't taken the time to figure out the game well enough to understand what happened.  I'd say it was probably 70/30 and went to the 30.  Not a big deal.
11/20/2010 1:01 AM
tianyi7886
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Uptempo really killed you here. You are playing with tired players near the end of the 2nd half and given how low your IQ is, that really hurts. I'm still surprised by the loss given how big of a diff there is in ath/spd but I guess the lesson here is, run slow down if you have a low IQ low stamina team. 
11/20/2010 1:17 AM
isack24
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Posted by colonels19 on 11/20/2010 12:23:00 AM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 11/20/2010 12:12:00 AM (view original):
You've been playing this long and you still think both the Vegas line and OTR are meaningful?
What I'm saying is, a 1 point win is a very reasonable expectation in this circumstance...should win by a lot more than that....loses by 2?  That just doesn't jive...just because you and a whole bunch of people try to explain it away, doesn't mean that it justifies the occurence.
Haha, a 1-point win is "reasonable" but a 2-point loss "doesn't jive"?

That's such an absurd point it only reinforces others' beliefs that you're a troll.

Totally illogical.
11/20/2010 10:11 PM
arssanguinus
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So COlonels, are you saying that the sim should sim the last shot of the game, statistically determine that its a hit. . and then go "But the line was 52, so it will be a miss instead, because that shot being the hit it was determined to be will make them lose'?  

You really CAN'T be serious. . . 

If you call a one point win 'plausible' then a two point loss is statistically plausible as well - end of story.

And you know very well, unless you are completely unaware, that the point spread in this game are completely, utterly totally and in all ways without the slightest scintilla of meaning.  Not one iota of interest, not one morsel of meaning. Nil.  Nada.  Nichyevo.  Nicht.  Zip.  Zilch.  Zero.


11/20/2010 10:50 PM
colonels19
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Posted by isack24 on 11/20/2010 10:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by colonels19 on 11/20/2010 12:23:00 AM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 11/20/2010 12:12:00 AM (view original):
You've been playing this long and you still think both the Vegas line and OTR are meaningful?
What I'm saying is, a 1 point win is a very reasonable expectation in this circumstance...should win by a lot more than that....loses by 2?  That just doesn't jive...just because you and a whole bunch of people try to explain it away, doesn't mean that it justifies the occurence.
Haha, a 1-point win is "reasonable" but a 2-point loss "doesn't jive"?

That's such an absurd point it only reinforces others' beliefs that you're a troll.

Totally illogical.
Put points aside, the main difference is the W and the L.  I'm saying that if the guy won by 1 point, this thread never hits the copy room.
11/21/2010 10:01 AM
colonels19
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Posted by arssanguinus on 11/20/2010 10:50:00 PM (view original):
So COlonels, are you saying that the sim should sim the last shot of the game, statistically determine that its a hit. . and then go "But the line was 52, so it will be a miss instead, because that shot being the hit it was determined to be will make them lose'?  

You really CAN'T be serious. . . 

If you call a one point win 'plausible' then a two point loss is statistically plausible as well - end of story.

And you know very well, unless you are completely unaware, that the point spread in this game are completely, utterly totally and in all ways without the slightest scintilla of meaning.  Not one iota of interest, not one morsel of meaning. Nil.  Nada.  Nichyevo.  Nicht.  Zip.  Zilch.  Zero.


He should have won by a lot, but winning by the smallest margin would have been acceptable as well (not as well received) but it's still a W.  A loss is inexcusable to him (and rightfully so) and that's why he's ********.
11/21/2010 10:03 AM
a_in_the_b
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You seem to have a rather deterministic view of how a statistically based game should work.  AAnd you seem to credit the point spread with having an actual meaning. . which it doesn't, not really even in real life.

11/21/2010 10:30 AM (edited)
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