Game-planning for an Upset Topic

I'm curious how owners change their gameplans - if at all - when they are facing a clearly superior team.

I know the conventional wisdom is to run a slowdown offense, to limit the number of possessions, thereby limiting the number of times that the opponents' superior abilities come into play.

Is there anything else though, that either you do or that you've had done to you? Successful or not, I'm just looking for ideas at the moment.

Some possible things I'm considering:

Is it better to have a relatively even distro, under the hope that - if a favorable matchup *does* present itself (say your starter vs. his 3rd string for a few minutes) - the even distro allows your guy to take advantage? Or is it better to go uneven distro and just hope the guys you go heavy on have career games and help you steal a win?

Is it better to focus inside, hoping to draw more fouls and perhaps get to his second strong guys, who are more on the level of your starters? Or is it better to go from distance and hope to hit enough threes that you can hang even though you are outclassed at most (all) positions (this seems to be one of the RL ways to go)?

Is it worth trying a "gimmick" lineup - something like a PG and 4 PF/C and hoping to play a slow, ugly game crashing the boards and just praying the opponent is cold from the outside? Or perhaps something like 4 guards and only one big (or even 5 guards) and just hope that the opponent's big men can't stray far from the hoop and end up allowing open jumpers (which you have to hit, because you won't be getting any boards)?

I realize there aren't any real "answers" and I don't expect any fool-proof plans from this thread, but I'm hoping to generate some discussion and perhaps reveal some considerations or ideas that I may have missed.
11/20/2010 6:38 AM (edited)
fool-proof
11/20/2010 6:34 AM
Teach me to try and be coherent at 4:30 in the morning. Thanks.
11/20/2010 6:39 AM
I do usually do more crazy stuff when clearly outclassed.  -5 defenses, shoot tons of 3s, shoot no 3s, etc.  I figure a balanced coaching job will lead to an average result, which i do not want.
11/20/2010 8:30 AM
If they run a short bench, their stars have foul issues or low stamina, sometimes I go UP tempo, if I think my starters could hang with their bench.
11/20/2010 9:45 AM
It depends on the nature of the opponent...since so many of the "clearly superior" teams tend to be cut of the fastbreak/FCP cloth, here's what I try:

1. Forget your "normal" lineup...for this game you want to focus on the guys least likely to turn the ball over. Those are the ones you want to give the most minutes to tonight. You can't pull an upset if you're busy beating yourself by giving away free possessions and breakaway opps.

2. Reset my minutes/fatigue settings...anyone who realistically can do my team good needs to be playing as much as possible. The key is to keep players on the floor that are fresh/fairly fresh and hope for a possession or two every now and then where they get to go against opposing players in the tiring/tired/very-tired range. Under NO circumstances do I want ANY of my guys playing tired/very tired. If that means the starting SG plays less than normal, tell him to suck it up for the good of the team and check his ego at the locker room door. If it means my substitution pattern looks more like a hockey game than a basketball game for the night, hey, so be it. They pay me for W's, not artistic merit.

3. Slow down, slow down, slow down. Think somewhere between vintage 80s Princeton and Dean Smith 4-corners.

4. Tweak the three-point shots upward by adjusting +1/+2 settings and possibly distros (don't overdo the distro side of things though...keep your post players involved to pick up some fouls) for the guys that can take them. You're wanting to catch lightning in a bottle from behind the arc. Three-point shots are the great equalizer. 

5. Figure out how you refuse to lose the game...inside or outside and overplay your defense a point or two that direction. Usually I'll choose to sag more inside because that's also the best for rebounding, and there's no sense giving the opponent more second-chances than they're already going to get via their superior speed and athleticism.

6. Pray to the gods of Random Number Generation, that they might find you in their favor for one night and smile upon thee.
11/20/2010 11:06 AM
I'll set my defense at a higher level. If I'd normally play a +1 versus a team, I might go to +2 or +3
11/20/2010 12:03 PM
I think the general theme is that you do more extreme planning.  I agree wholeheartedly.  Different lineups, crazy distro favoring your best matchup (or going after their best player hoping to get him in foul trouble), crazy 3-pt frequenct on both offense and defense, etc.
11/22/2010 1:42 PM
I've used this several times with varied results, but, if i'm facing a team with superior bigs i'll go +5 and hope my guards will keep them from getting the ball. On the flip side if i'm facing a team with superior guards i'll play -5 and hope they are off shooting that night and i'll get tons of rebounds. The upset is generally not going to happen but i've knocked off some pretty good teams, and of course i've been in the slowdown mode.
11/23/2010 7:07 AM
this is a silly question. if you had the exact team that you believed was superior then i'd give a gameplan that would work or come close to working. without the ability to see where they are strong and where they are weak i wouldn't even bother explaining the potential ways to beat a superior team. almost every team has a weakness, from stamina to bad defensive players, you have to find their kryptonite and it is up to you to exploit it. ...........if the team is better then you in every single category, then you lose and if you want to put a desperate plan out there for sh*ts and giggles then go with the bing (most shots to one or more of your best offensive players) and set your defense on plus 5 or minus 5 and pray. good day.
11/23/2010 1:46 PM
give yourself the best chance of not beating yourself. play your best IQ's and at least be in position to make a shot. slowdown, obviously. 
11/23/2010 5:01 PM
Posted by uglyskunk3 on 11/23/2010 1:46:00 PM (view original):
this is a silly question. if you had the exact team that you believed was superior then i'd give a gameplan that would work or come close to working. without the ability to see where they are strong and where they are weak i wouldn't even bother explaining the potential ways to beat a superior team. almost every team has a weakness, from stamina to bad defensive players, you have to find their kryptonite and it is up to you to exploit it. ...........if the team is better then you in every single category, then you lose and if you want to put a desperate plan out there for sh*ts and giggles then go with the bing (most shots to one or more of your best offensive players) and set your defense on plus 5 or minus 5 and pray. good day.
Name Yr. Pos. A SPD REB DE BLK LP PE BH P WE ST DU FT TOT
Robert Blanding Jr. C 72 41 71 68 64 67 1 35 2 82 85 73 B 661
Rubin Lavender So. SG 67 66 1 64 3 1 65 67 52 50 89 95 C+ 620
Michael McCloud Sr. C 36 33 99 35 78 52 12 40 32 74 65 46 B- 602
Jonathan Barnett So. C 69 14 69 69 67 42 9 29 35 74 65 46 C+ 588
Joe Gardener Fr. C 32 11 88 38 69 57 1 6 21 72 82 94 C 571
Glen Jenkin Jr. PG 44 65 1 36 7 1 82 45 55 61 91 77 B- 565
William Garner So. C 64 3 72 66 48 48 1 10 23 46 73 81 C- 535
Joseph Wilson Fr. SG 46 56 17 37 3 1 72 44 47 60 73 63 C 519
John Hough Fr. PG 77 57 1 73 2 1 26 64 58 49 79 30 C- 517
Ronald Matias Fr. SG 73 43 1 80 2 13 33 47 30 55 77 61 C- 515
Francis Beck Fr. SF 47 43 25 46 13 16 52 41 49 32 72 59 C- 495
Keneth James Fr. PG 83 33 18 70 6 43 1 27 26 49 71 65 B+ 492
Averages - - 59 39 39 57 30 28 30 38 36 59 77 66 - 557

Name Yr. Pos. Flex Motion Triangle Fastbreak Man Zone Press
Glen Jenkin Jr. PG C+ A- D- D- C- A- D-
John Hough Fr. PG F B F F F B F
Keneth James Fr. PG C B- F F F B- C-
Rubin Lavender So. SG C- A D- D- D A- D+
Ronald Matias Fr. SG F B- F D+ F B- C-
Joseph Wilson Fr. SG F B- F D+ D B- F
Francis Beck Fr. SF C- B- F F F B- C-
Michael McCloud Sr. C D- A C- D- D- A+ C-
Robert Blanding Jr. C D+ A D- D- D- A- C
Jonathan Barnett So. C D- B+ D- C- D- B+ D-
William Garner So. C D- B+ D D- C+ B+ C+
Joe Gardener Fr. C C- B+ D- D- C- B+ D-

__________________________________

Name Yr. Pos. A SPD REB DE BLK LP PE BH P WE ST DU FT TOT
Howard Rutter Sr. PG 62 87 1 58 2 27 80 87 53 65 91 71 B 684
David Estes Sr. C 58 26 90 77 56 84 4 29 40 76 86 36 C 662
Richard Smith Sr. SF 64 54 50 74 44 40 74 63 45 39 85 17 B- 649
Alfred Hull Jr. SG 69 71 7 77 9 27 57 74 65 44 83 49 B- 632
John Williamson So. C 45 35 87 43 66 64 13 31 16 58 78 50 B- 586
Neil Longo Sr. C 51 26 83 67 69 54 1 44 29 39 79 36 C+ 578
Ronald Keller Fr. SF 50 57 41 41 26 56 61 39 35 64 82 20 B- 572
Leroy Brantner So. PG 51 72 1 50 2 15 71 66 53 40 81 67 B 569
Christopher Beckett Jr. PF 58 30 69 53 63 49 21 50 29 21 68 49 C 560
Clifton Yerger Fr. C 53 31 74 51 54 65 1 18 7 61 71 55 C- 541
Daniel Elder Jr. PG 31 62 1 34 2 1 42 71 68 45 91 82 B+ 530
Peter Anderson Fr. PG 37 65 1 40 2 1 68 54 45 68 75 52 C+ 508
Averages - - 52 51 42 55 33 40 41 52 40 52 81 49 - 589

Name Yr. Pos. Flex Motion Triangle Fastbreak Man Zone Press
Howard Rutter Sr. PG A D- D- D- A D- C-
Daniel Elder Jr. PG A- D- D- D- A- C D-
Leroy Brantner So. PG A- D+ D- D- A- C D-
Peter Anderson Fr. PG B- F F F B- C C
Alfred Hull Jr. SG A- D+ D- D- A- C- D-
Richard Smith Sr. SF A C+ D- D- A D- B-
Ronald Keller Fr. SF B+ D+ D- D- B+ D- C
Christopher Beckett Jr. PF B+ C- D- D- B+ D- D-
David Estes Sr. C A D- D- C- A D- C-
Neil Longo Sr. C A D- D- D- A- D- C-
John Williamson So. C B+ D- D- C- B+ D- D-
Clifton Yerger Fr. C B- F C- F B- D D
11/23/2010 9:22 PM
maybe i'm not being creative enough, but aside from running slow down (which you mentioned), I'd stick to your strengths and pay attention to the superior teams weaknesses.  these are some pertinent questions to me:
  • when you pulled off your best couple wins of the season, what worked well?
  • when your opponent lost previously, how were they exploited i.e. who is the weakest defender, and can you put your best offensive player in that spot?  or do they have an especially slow player who can't defend the perimeter?
  • what are your opponents tendencies?  some coaches tend to be remarkably predictable
  • does your opponent have goofy end of game settings you can expose? (this happens more often than you'd think)
when my team is just so-so, i'll tinker with the lineup and have a few different ones depending on the type of team i'm playing.  if i have a strong team and my opponent is still better, i'll probably stick with the lineup that's obviously working and adjust my distribution and defensive settings to something that gives me the best chance to win.

lastly, i don't think going extreme is more likely to give you a victory UNLESS your opponent's tendencies dictate you do so.
11/27/2010 6:16 PM
zbrent ......in this example........what is your opponent's usual starting lineup?
11/27/2010 8:35 PM
Game-planning for an Upset Topic

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