Posted by oldresorter on 12/29/2010 12:58:00 PM (view original):
My opinion on these numbers may surprise a few, I find it a little hard to blame the new engine release on the drop, looking at those numbers, I probably could use them to justify just about any opinion I wanted. None of us really knows for sure.
I don't know how many thousands of HS players graduate each year, or ex hs players turn 20 or 25 each year, but new candidates for this game do emerge each season. The trick is to find those among them who would get a kick out of this and get them involved.
No matter how good or bad the engine is, was, or will be, the key to this game's user numbers is getting new players involved each year, as well as retaining the old.
I think it is a pretty safe assumption that some of the engine changes will cause a loss in old users (not all changes or users but some), hence it is important to do extra promotion around the time big changes to the game occur.
Based on the numbers I see, now seems like such a time for promotion????
OR - of course, interpretation of the numbers is subjective. but i think the drop in d1 numbers is unprecedented - what that means may be subjective. but i think that at least is clear. with the timing of the new engine and this unprecedented drop in d1 numbers, i think it would be hard to conclude anything but a large portion of the d1 crowd is unhappy and left.
i suppose you could also argue the leaving pace hasn't changed - it is the arriving pace that has changed. but with basically no advertising now or ever, i struggle to buy into this. it seems to me that the arriving pace is probably primarily based on word of mouth - and if that factor has dropped, that is probably a bigger cause for concern than anything else.
but if you watch d1 population, which i am sure you do with 9 times the d1 teams i do, i think it is fairly obvious that the turnover has went up a lot. the number of big 6 jobs staying open, the number turning over, is quite alarming. to me, that real experience is just verified by these numbers.