Now that we've warmed up with fun facts, let's have the rubber meet the road a little bit and establish a long-term baseline level of NT participation by the Big 6 and All Others...

Big 6 vs All Other - Total Bids and At Large Bids
Conference	Total Bids All-Time	Avg Bids Per NT	Avg At Large Bids per NT	At Large Per Conf per NT
Big 6	1078	25	19	3.2
All Other	1674	39	18	0.9

This isn't really all that surprising - the All Other gets more overall bids but in terms of At-Large bids, its slanted toward the Big 6.  But what is interesting is that the 21 non-"power" conferences still average almost one at-large bid per conference over the last 43 years.

Ok, so the average number of at-large bids handed out to the mid- and low-majors in any given year in Allen is in the neighborhood or 0.9.  Let's take a look at how that's changed over time:

Season	Big 6 Bids	All Other Bids	All Other At-Large Bids	All Other At-Large Per Conf
46	37	27	6	0.3
45	34	30	9	0.4
44	29	35	14	0.7
43	31	33	12	0.6
42	22	42	21	1.0
41	25	39	18	0.9
40	25	39	18	0.9
39	25	39	18	0.9
38	24	40	19	0.9
37	23	41	20	1.0
36	22	42	21	1.0
35	24	40	19	0.9
34	27	37	16	0.8
33	27	37	16	0.8
32	24	40	19	0.9
31	27	37	16	0.8
30	24	40	19	0.9
29	28	36	15	0.7
28	28	36	15	0.7
27	23	41	20	1.0
26	29	35	14	0.7
25	27	37	16	0.8
24	25	39	18	0.9
23	22	42	21	1.0
22	23	41	20	1.0
21	24	40	19	0.9
20	19	45	24	1.1
19	21	43	22	1.0
18	20	44	23	1.1
17	19	45	24	1.1
16	21	43	22	1.0
15	21	43	22	1.0
14	23	41	20	1.0
13	23	41	20	1.0
12	23	41	20	1.0
11	22	42	21	1.0
10	23	41	20	1.0
9	29	35	14	0.7
8	25	39	18	0.9
7	28	36	15	0.7
6	26	38	17	0.8
5	30	34	13	0.6
4	26	38	17	0.8

Ok, so even including the seasons when no one was in D1, the lowest overall average number of at-large bids for non-Big 6 conferences until 4 seasons ago was 0.6 in Season 5.  And in the last 4-5 seasons since the engine changed you've gone all the way down to 0.3 at-large bids per non-Big 6 conference.  And if you look at the 4th column, which is the total number of at-large bids, you see how pitiful its become.  We were running at 20 or so total at-large bids for non-Big 6 conferences most of the history of Allen and now we're down to 6.  6! 

Will the last person in the mid-majors please turn out the lights?

I'd argue that what we're seeing is the start of a trend where no one either can or is willing to continue trying to build a "Hoops Dynasty" at a non-Big 6. 
I'll recognize right up front that NT bids are not directly measuring the population of coaches in mid- and low-majors but its a good proxy and its important to the health of the game. 

And the health thing stems from the issue that if no one is really competing at the non-Big 6 level...eventually we'll get to a point where no one is left with enough experience to fill the jobs that open up at the bottom end of the Big 6 conferences.

Thanks for the work Cheeze, makes me sad

This is exactly what OR, VD, myself and others predicted when the new engine/recruiting was rolled out.

cheez, nice job culling the (sad-but-true) data.

I might start a thread using this data entitled, "Seble, Please Tell Us What The Hell You're Going To Do To Fix This".

Seriously.

(Send him the relevant info.)

what is most striking to me is the relative consistency of the nonBCS at large number over time, until the last couple seasons....engine change or random?

Posted by fd343ny on 1/18/2011 10:45:00 PM (view original):
what is most striking to me is the relative consistency of the nonBCS at large number over time, until the last couple seasons....engine change or random?

Yeah, I had the same reaction, fd.  If I get a chance tomorrow I'll calculate the odds of that being random but I'm fairly confident that its a ridiculously low likelihood.

aside from the engine, what else changed at that time?  did the % of teams coached by humans among BCS or nonBCS schools change? other variables to control?

Posted by fd343ny on 1/18/2011 11:11:00 PM (view original):
aside from the engine, what else changed at that time?  did the % of teams coached by humans among BCS or nonBCS schools change? other variables to control?

Well, yes, numerous coaches left low/mid conferences, mostly a direct response to the recruiting changes and their inability to compete like they did before. So that's directly related to the recruiting change.

And my sense is that the Big 6 conferences stayed at about the same fill rate overall.  Some Big 6 coaches left when the new engine debuted and about the same number of spots that opened got filled by folks from mid- and low-majors.  What's really changed is the All Other and that's the point.

I think we are also on the verge of losing one of the distinctives that made Allen a particularly fun and competitive world. Look at the national champions in seasons 29-40, prior to the engine change--Southern, Boston U., Yale, Cleveland St., Maine. I thought it was great when Maine played Weber St. for the national title. Not many other worlds offered so much hope to mid-majors, even back in the day.

Yeah Allen is now totally dominated by the ACC who are just about unstoppable with more than 45k in NT/PT money in each of of the last 5 years.

Posted by tribewriter on 1/19/2011 11:51:00 AM (view original):
I think we are also on the verge of losing one of the distinctives that made Allen a particularly fun and competitive world. Look at the national champions in seasons 29-40, prior to the engine change--Southern, Boston U., Yale, Cleveland St., Maine. I thought it was great when Maine played Weber St. for the national title. Not many other worlds offered so much hope to mid-majors, even back in the day.

Agreed, that was really awesome about Allen. And we've lost it.

The good news is that with the right tweaks, we could get it back. It's going to take seble realizing that this is a priority issue to make it happen though. So if you feel it's a priority issue -- let him know.