Thursday (2/3) Release Topic

Posted by fmschwab on 2/3/2011 8:30:00 AM (view original):
Message from seble:

Frank,

"When we generate recruits, we don't do it by division or range. We generate a big pool of players and then let them fall where they should based on their ratings. So yes, this change will impact all recruits."

Boo! This could've been a changed that helped the game, if they'd followed the coach_billyg/girt25 (and numerous others) plan. Could've solved a very bad problem. Now it appears it's more likely to make things worse vs. better. Yuck.

I think this is super important and seble needs to take his time to figure this one out so it can be done correctly.

wow, that is disappointing. seble, if i am reading this right, and you evenly increased recruits, then you definitely just make things worse. i know you have gotten a lot of feedback on this issue, you should know how important this is, and a half-assed change like this just doesn't cut it. you are clearly missing something. i think its time for a reality check:

Human population for division 1 world 1
Season: 48 humans: 154
Season: 47 humans: 173
Season: 46 humans: 177
Season: 45 humans: 194


Human population for division 1 world 2
Season: 47 humans: 155
Season: 46 humans: 173
Season: 45 humans: 183


Human population for division 1 world 3
Season: 47 humans: 138
Season: 46 humans: 153
Season: 45 humans: 150


Human population for division 1 world 4
Season: 47 humans: 145
Season: 46 humans: 155
Season: 45 humans: 164
Season: 44 humans: 177


Human population for division 1 world 5
Season: 46 humans: 143
Season: 45 humans: 161
Season: 44 humans: 167
Season: 43 humans: 183


Human population for division 1 world 6
Season: 45 humans: 135
Season: 44 humans: 147
Season: 43 humans: 166
Season: 42 humans: 186


Human population for division 1 world 7
Season: 42 humans: 142
Season: 41 humans: 154
Season: 40 humans: 165
Season: 39 humans: 178
Season: 38 humans: 186


Human population for division 1 world 8
Season: 52 humans: 127
Season: 51 humans: 127
Season: 50 humans: 134
Season: 49 humans: 142
Season: 48 humans: 160
Season: 47 humans: 187
Season: 46 humans: 197


Human population for division 1 world 9
Season: 32 humans: 129
Season: 31 humans: 128
Season: 30 humans: 149
Season: 29 humans: 168
Season: 28 humans: 177
Season: 27 humans: 184


Human population for division 1 world 10
Season: 31 humans: 130
Season: 30 humans: 135
Season: 29 humans: 141
Season: 28 humans: 148
Season: 27 humans: 162
Season: 26 humans: 175

with all due respect..... do you get it yet?

edit: if anyone wants to see how this slice of current history fits in with the full world population data, its here

2/3/2011 12:23 PM (edited)
recruit generation is one of the most important parts of this game. the players you create totally change the way this game works. making changes with anything but an extremely clear vision and a very precise handle on what needs to change is just crazy. the above post illustrate what happens the LAST time you messed with recruit generation. i would hope you have learned from that experience.

if you can't explain clearly and concisely what you are trying to fix here, and just as importantly, how this change addresses the problem, well, you shouldn't be making the change then. that should be pretty obvious by now. so i'd really like to hear how you think this change is going to help, because right now, i can't think of a damn thing, and i would like to think you at least have one good reason for doing this. i think everyone here deserves to hear it, considering the way the last change to recruit generation went.
2/3/2011 12:10 PM
I think the problem is the RELATIVE strengths of the recruits not the OVERALL strengths.

This is my feeling of how it is now:

Ranking at position         Rating
#1                                       825
#5                                       775
#10                                     650
#25                                     560
#50                                     550
#75                                     540
#100                                   530
#125                                   520
#150                                   510
#200                                   500

The problem is there is more difference between the #5 recruit and the average #25 recruit than between #25 and #200.  I pulled this numbers out of the air, but that is my feeling.  Raising this scale by 5/10/20 points doesn't really help the situation at all.
2/3/2011 12:39 PM
Posted by reinsel on 2/3/2011 12:39:00 PM (view original):
I think the problem is the RELATIVE strengths of the recruits not the OVERALL strengths.

This is my feeling of how it is now:

Ranking at position         Rating
#1                                       825
#5                                       775
#10                                     650
#25                                     560
#50                                     550
#75                                     540
#100                                   530
#125                                   520
#150                                   510
#200                                   500

The problem is there is more difference between the #5 recruit and the average #25 recruit than between #25 and #200.  I pulled this numbers out of the air, but that is my feeling.  Raising this scale by 5/10/20 points doesn't really help the situation at all.
I want to see a histogram of all the recruits' projected ratings (an overall position-independent rating, just to judge the overall quality of the player) that shows graphically what you just took a stab at.

unfortunately i wont be able to do this myself before the dev chat
2/3/2011 12:44 PM
Posted by reinsel on 2/3/2011 12:39:00 PM (view original):
I think the problem is the RELATIVE strengths of the recruits not the OVERALL strengths.

This is my feeling of how it is now:

Ranking at position         Rating
#1                                       825
#5                                       775
#10                                     650
#25                                     560
#50                                     550
#75                                     540
#100                                   530
#125                                   520
#150                                   510
#200                                   500

The problem is there is more difference between the #5 recruit and the average #25 recruit than between #25 and #200.  I pulled this numbers out of the air, but that is my feeling.  Raising this scale by 5/10/20 points doesn't really help the situation at all.
agree completely. i think that even though those numbers are off, you captured the essence of it - there is a huge drop off after a small # of recruits, and then its pretty even on down to d3.

the thing is, we are all saying the same thing. literally every single one of the hundred or so opinions i've read that doesn't like recruit generation wants a very similar change. there are a fair number of people who don't want it to change too, im not saying there aren't. just that everyone who wants a change wants more or less the same thing, and 0 people (maybe 1 if you count seble) wanted all recruits to get better. it just doesn't make a damn bit of sense to me.
2/3/2011 12:52 PM
Posted by gillispie on 2/3/2011 12:12:00 PM (view original):
recruit generation is one of the most important parts of this game. the players you create totally change the way this game works. making changes with anything but an extremely clear vision and a very precise handle on what needs to change is just crazy. the above post illustrate what happens the LAST time you messed with recruit generation. i would hope you have learned from that experience.

if you can't explain clearly and concisely what you are trying to fix here, and just as importantly, how this change addresses the problem, well, you shouldn't be making the change then. that should be pretty obvious by now. so i'd really like to hear how you think this change is going to help, because right now, i can't think of a damn thing, and i would like to think you at least have one good reason for doing this. i think everyone here deserves to hear it, considering the way the last change to recruit generation went.
+1,000
2/3/2011 12:52 PM
Posted by reinsel on 2/3/2011 12:39:00 PM (view original):
I think the problem is the RELATIVE strengths of the recruits not the OVERALL strengths.

This is my feeling of how it is now:

Ranking at position         Rating
#1                                       825
#5                                       775
#10                                     650
#25                                     560
#50                                     550
#75                                     540
#100                                   530
#125                                   520
#150                                   510
#200                                   500

The problem is there is more difference between the #5 recruit and the average #25 recruit than between #25 and #200.  I pulled this numbers out of the air, but that is my feeling.  Raising this scale by 5/10/20 points doesn't really help the situation at all.
So I actually decided to do this based on C/PF in Allen.

Positions          Ave of Total
#1-#5                   775
#9-11                   715
#24-26                 614
#48-50                 581
#74-76                 564
#98-100               555
#124-126            533
#149-151            525
#174-176            516
#198-200            508

So I was kinda close.  And my thesis of more diffeence from top (775) to #25 (614) vs. #25 to #200 is correct. 

Considering D2 schools are starting these #125-200 guys while D1 teams put the #75 guys on the bench, its not surprising D2 teams look like D1 mid majors.
2/3/2011 12:56 PM
So I actually decided to do this based on C/PF in Allen.

Positions          Ave of Total
#1-#5                   775
#9-11                   715
#24-26                 614 +35  = 649
#48-50                 581 +30  = 611
#74-76                 564 +25  = 589
#98-100               555 +20  = 575
#124-126            533 +15  = 548
#149-151            525 +10  = 535
#174-176            516 +5    = 521
#198-200            508

So I was kinda close.  And my thesis of more diffeence from top (775) to #25 (614) vs. #25 to #200 is correct. 

Considering D2 schools are starting these #125-200 guys while D1 teams put the #75 guys on the bench, its not surprising D2 teams look like D1 mid majors.


Want needs to be done is something like I outline above helping the #25-#175 guys and creating a system were the #50 guys don't get confused with the #150 guys.
2/3/2011 12:59 PM
Posted by reinsel on 2/3/2011 12:59:00 PM (view original):
So I actually decided to do this based on C/PF in Allen.

Positions          Ave of Total
#1-#5                   775
#9-11                   715
#24-26                 614 +35  = 649
#48-50                 581 +30  = 611
#74-76                 564 +25  = 589
#98-100               555 +20  = 575
#124-126            533 +15  = 548
#149-151            525 +10  = 535
#174-176            516 +5    = 521
#198-200            508

So I was kinda close.  And my thesis of more diffeence from top (775) to #25 (614) vs. #25 to #200 is correct. 

Considering D2 schools are starting these #125-200 guys while D1 teams put the #75 guys on the bench, its not surprising D2 teams look like D1 mid majors.


Want needs to be done is something like I outline above helping the #25-#175 guys and creating a system were the #50 guys don't get confused with the #150 guys.
i like it, i could definitely get behind a change like that. i would probably do it a bit differently, but very similar in concept, so that d2 recruits didn't really get better, and to flatten d1 a bit  -

Positions          Ave of Total
#1-#5                   775
#9-11                   715
#24-26                 614 +50  = 664
#48-50                 581 +35  = 621
#74-76                 564 +25  = 589
#98-100               555 + 10  = 565
#124-126            533 +5  = 538
#149-151            525
#174-176            516
#198-200            508


2/3/2011 1:05 PM
Reinsel has it, well done. Now someone run this to the develop chat. 
2/3/2011 1:07 PM
well, when i say flatten, i meant at the top - but to unflatten the rest of the way down a bit.
2/3/2011 1:09 PM

Billyg's proposal is fine with me too...I don't have a D2 team so I don't have a good feel for the #100-#200 guys.  It is just obvious to me that what is best for the game is increasing the ratings of the top 100 players, excluding the 700 rated 5 star guys that most teams don't have much hope of getting.

2/3/2011 1:10 PM

I put this in.

Regarding D1 recruiting,

Recruit Ranking   Ave of Total Rating
#1-#5                   775
#9-11                   715
#24-26                 614
#48-50                 581
#74-76                 564
#98-100               555
#124-126            533
#149-151            525
#174-176            516
#198-200            508

The problem I see is there is the same difference #25 and #175, as #10 and #25.  What is your view of this situation and how will the new recruits look?

2/3/2011 1:14 PM
Good stuff, guys. Hopefully the right person is listening to this.

And such and interesting -- an telling -- point that the difference between 25 and 175 is the same as 10 and 25. That alone is a perfect summation of what's currently wrong ... and the exact area that seble can address.

Again -- good stuff.
2/3/2011 2:26 PM (edited)
  Here's the problems I see,without going into all the numbers, I think the top ten recruits at each position is probably rated ok but then its a huge drop off making it almost impossible for a mid major to even have that one year run at the big boys every now and then so not as many people will take the mid level jobs! But also when the top tier schools get the good recruits they are most likely going to leave early to be a late second round pick in the draft. That's upsetting the top tier coaches so since no one wants a mid that can't compete or a major that has to restock every single season everyone gets frustrated and is leaving the game. That needs to be fixed before we worry about all this trivial fixes thats meant just to shut people up. I can adjust to whatever changes they make to the rateings but I can't adjust to coaching against simmy every game! Focus should be to make the game better not just to do temp fixes to quite the critics.
2/3/2011 1:49 PM
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