I think I remember seeing either OR or Iguana or LM's formula for predicting NT seed as: Seed = (RPI + Ranking +5)/8. In this case, it's (5 + 11+5)/8, rounded up to 3 I guess. Now, in the formula, the 5 may actually be a 4, I can't remember. But this has proved to be considerably more reliable since I've come across it than my gut or instinct or the eyeball test, for right or wrong.