Coincidence? Entirely non BCS region in IBA PIT Topic

metsmax
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Do you believe in coincidences?  Cue the conspiracy music.

Eight BCS teams in the IBA PIT.  Turns out that one region gets none of them.  if each of the eight is assigned randomly, then the odds of this would appear to be 65,536 to 1.....4 to the 8th, eh?
Division I Field of 32
# First Second Third Fourth
1 Georgia Tech (13-15, 47) Maryland (15-12, 56) Baylor (19-10, 50) UAB (20-8, 61)
2 W. Virginia (20-8, 62) Creighton (17-10, 60) UNC (14-14, 55) Niagara (22-6, 57)
3 Coppin St. (21-8, 59) Appalachian St. (24-5, 71) Cal. Poly SLO (22-5, 65) Fordham (19-10, 70)
4 Texas Christian (19-9, 69) Bethune-Cookman (14-14, 67) Central Florida (19-9, 68) Sacramento St. (17-11, 66)
5 Samford (21-8, 73) St. Bonaventure (13-14, 72) Indiana (20-8, 77) Northwestern St. (22-7, 74)
6 Pennsylvania (20-8, 76) Buffalo (23-5, 75) San Jose St. (19-8, 80) N. Illinois (17-10, 83)
7 Santa Clara (20-9, 78) Notre Dame (15-13, 84) Georgia (18-10, 85) Marquette (20-7, 88)
8 Bradley (17-11, 86) St. Francis (17-12, 87) N. Carolina A&T (14-14, 90) E. Tennessee St. (19-10, 82)
6/23/2011 9:02 AM
pinkeye
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your math is just a tiny bit off
6/23/2011 10:13 AM
tkimble
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I think those would be the odds for an all-BCS region when there were only 8 BCS teams?  
6/23/2011 10:20 AM
metsmax
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I'm sure you are right as I think about it....dont remember enough of this permutation and combination stuff....will try to reinvet

6/23/2011 10:24 AM
coach_billyg
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Posted by pinkeye on 6/23/2011 10:13:00 AM (view original):
your math is just a tiny bit off
not really ;)
6/23/2011 3:34 PM
coach_billyg
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mets, its like this - the chance for a given region of the first team in being non BCS is 24/32. the chance of the sceond is then 23/31, because there is one less team and one less non BCS team. so, you get for all 8, 24/32 * 23/31 * 22/30 * 21/29 * 20/28 * 19/27 * 18/26 * 17/25 = about 7%. there are 4 regions, so the total chance is about 1 in 4 of having this happen.
6/23/2011 3:34 PM
dahsdebater
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I got the same result by computing the probability distribution for the BCS teams.  Your way is much, much better.
6/23/2011 4:42 PM
pjbrankin
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I had a smartass post typed about how Marquette must have been demoted from the big east.. then i realized that they actually aren't in the big east in HD. never knew that.
6/24/2011 12:08 AM
metsmax
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Posted by coach_billyg on 6/23/2011 3:34:00 PM (view original):
mets, its like this - the chance for a given region of the first team in being non BCS is 24/32. the chance of the sceond is then 23/31, because there is one less team and one less non BCS team. so, you get for all 8, 24/32 * 23/31 * 22/30 * 21/29 * 20/28 * 19/27 * 18/26 * 17/25 = about 7%. there are 4 regions, so the total chance is about 1 in 4 of having this happen.
So you are saying it might not be a conspiracy, eh?
6/24/2011 8:21 AM
Coincidence? Entirely non BCS region in IBA PIT Topic
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